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Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out


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JMA Weeklies came in today and suggest a stormy look Week 1 & Week 2...at 500mb, the pattern looks great...the model is also suggesting a colder than normal second half of the month.  CFSv2 also agreeing.

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More photos.

Are you being serious???  Who cares where the storm is tracking 7-10 days out.  The fact that the model is producing a storm consistently is THE only fact you should be looking at.   Track is only imp

@ Geo's, look what the EPS is forecasting in the long range...monster trough in the 4 corners to open up Feb.  I gotta look back and see what storm system this one resembles in the LRC.   Just checked

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00z Euro prob had a fluke run...noticed the NAO spike way positive that run...the current 10mb/30mb warming that is happening may be wrecking havoc in the modeling.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

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GFS backed to suppressed garbage for next weekend. Model is a joke more than five days out.

I am afraid the 2 viable scenarios are what the GFS is showing.  Supressed junk with limited cold sector precip.  Or a cutter with questionable temps...

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As I sit here in Central Nebraska with a front on the door step and nothing else.  What a frustrating winter so far.  Don't know what I was expecting but more than this.  I really am hoping for changes going into Feb. and March.  The snow we had is pretty much gone except piles and shaded areas.  It actually hit the lower 50's yesterday and 60 to our west.  Southern and parts of Central Nebraska really have had very little snow.  Bummed but hoping for better times, what else can I do?

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This would make for an interesting solution

 

 

 

 

With an active subtropical jet this isn't very likely to play out. The EURO has shown a couple other cut off lows this winter in the 10 day range, but they haven't come true.

This is something that is common in late Spring.

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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As I sit here in Central Nebraska with a front on the door step and nothing else.  What a frustrating winter so far.  Don't know what I was expecting but more than this.  I really am hoping for changes going into Feb. and March.  The snow we had is pretty much gone except piles and shaded areas.  It actually hit the lower 50's yesterday and 60 to our west.  Southern and parts of Central Nebraska really have had very little snow.  Bummed but hoping for better times, what else can I do?

Think if you lived in Boston. You go from 108 inches last year to 1.2 so far. East coast has been a nightmare for snow lovers

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You are correct.  I think we have had between 6 and 10 inches depending on exact location, with most coming as little 1 inch systems, and a storm that was close to 3.  Maybe I expected more el nino driven storms that would be rain or snow producers but they have been few and far between in this part of the state and even less to our south.  Panhandle, Northern and parts of Eastern and Northeastern Nebraska have done much better.  I know Lincoln hasn't had much either.

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Yeah, it's been yet another dud of a winter here in Central Nebraska.  Not sure how many more of these I can take.  It's literally pretty much been a total dud this entire DECADE.  Just 1 real winter is all I ask..JUST 1.  Atleast it's been somewhat mild instead of frigid and bone dry.

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Yeah i feel for you guys basically west of fullerton to GI down to Hastings. I have had snow on the ground since x mas. The way it sounds now my area is basically the only area left with snow on the ground in the CWA according to the disco from today. By my guess, it looks like we have 2-3" of snow left after these past couple days in the 40's. Still waiting for that monster storm, usually in an El Nino season we see that later in the winter. 

 

TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON (NORMAL HIGHS

AVERAGE IN THE MID 30S) DUE TO GOOD MIXING OF A WARM AIRMASS...
AIDED BY INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS. MOST AREAS HAVE REACHED
THE 50S AND EVEN AREAS WITH SNOW HAVE CLIMBED TO THE UPPER 40S.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE ERODING SNOW FIELD...NOW
GENERALLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM FULLERTON TO
AURORA TO CLAY CENTER...WITH THE MORE SOLID SNOW FIELD STILL
RESIDING IN EASTERN POLK COUNTY.

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I'd prefer at this point to lock into NW flow for a couple weeks and hope we get lucky with a clipper or two. I'm hoping Saturday night we get a surprise inch or two with the clipper coming through, but right now it looks like southern Iowa is in the best spot. 

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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I'd prefer at this point to lock into NW flow for a couple weeks and hope we get lucky with a clipper or two. I'm hoping Saturday night we get a surprise inch or two with the clipper coming through, but right now it looks like southern Iowa is in the best spot.

 

Ditto. Seems the way we usually build a good snowpack is through a bunch of 2-5" clippers. Yeh, a big storm is nice but just doesn't happen that often.

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Weeklies not looking great?

 

EURO is on an island by itself with that cut off low from what I heard. 

This isn't the winter to trust the EURO in the mid to long range.

 

GFS doesn't look like it on this run.

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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Next week was looking bleak, now we have yet another system to track on Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

post-4544-0-56526900-1452831955.gif

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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GFS showing the 30 day repeat storm from my post-Christmas flood. Don't doubt that there will be a storm around the 25th but doubting temperatures in that period. If I had a dollar for every monster fantasy snowstorm this year already, I could've paid a month of my weatherbell subscription at least! Lol

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Tuesday has become more of a spread the wealth type storm on the GFS, widespread 2-4 at least.http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160115/18Z/f120/acckucherasnowmw.png

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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The 220 rainstorm on the gfs would even piss me off

 

No kidding. Have had enough with these types of storm tracks.

Good thing that it is 220 hours away.

 

I would be fine with Clippers the rest of the winter, if it meant no more pointless 1 to 2 day warm ups that wipe out half the snow cover.

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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00z Euro prob had a fluke run...noticed the NAO spike way positive that run...the current 10mb/30mb warming that is happening may be wrecking havoc in the modeling.

 

 

 

Bubble is about to burst over the polar regions.

 

Noticed that the polar vortex is pretty disorganized in the lower part of the stratosphere already.

 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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No kidding. Have had enough with these types of storm tracks.

Good thing that it is 220 hours away.

 

I would be fine with Clippers the rest of the winter, if it meant no more pointless 1 to 2 day warm ups that wipe out half the snow cover.

 

You would think differently if you lived here where the best we can muster is a 2" or so accumulation from a clipper (and since it's dry snow, it settles/disappears rather quickly).

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You would think differently if you lived here where the best we can muster is a 2" or so accumulation from a clipper (and since it's dry snow, it settles/disappears rather quickly).

 

How much of a base is leftover from the snow and sleet storm?

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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lol, how does the GFS go from 15 degrees

 

18z

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160115/18Z/f234/sfctconus.png to 40 rain? 

 

00Z

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160116/00Z/f228/sfctconus.png

Thats the consistency we want to see!

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Lol, o no it's taking after the EURO! :lol:  :rolleyes: 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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Looking like the EURO cyclops low taps into some cold air late next week.

Would guess there would be snow north of the I-70 corridor.

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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lol, how does the GFS go from 15 degrees

 

18z

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160115/18Z/f234/sfctconus.png to 40 rain? 

 

00Z

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160116/00Z/f228/sfctconus.png

Thats the consistency we want to see!

because it's nearly 10 days out? sorry no computer model is consistent that far out....

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Question for Tom: what happened to this active pattern that was supposed to develop through the middle of the country?  Besides the 6" storm I had back on December 28th, meteorological winter has featured at most 2" type events.  I was saying and thinking a year or two back that you'd be talking up any pattern as an active/snowy one, and it seems I was right.  If you don't like that I just use my backyard, ask just about anyone on this forum, and they will say it has not been a good pattern for snow, and only recently a decent one for cold.

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