Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Money]

But there is a giant high to the north...

If anything I would expect this system to cut south of I-70 and then up the East Coast.

 

Here's the L at HR 96

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160111/00Z/f096/sfcconus.png

 

 

There's no high even close to being in the picture. 

[Money]

Even at HR 126, the high pressure is still wayyy up north

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160111/00Z/f126/sfcconus.png

[Geos]

Oops, I was thinking of the 1040 high on the GGEM.

 

The EURO and JMA run from earlier actually makes more sense given the pattern and teleconnections.

[winterfreak]

Five days out. Still a fluid situation. The way this winter has gone I wouldn't doubt a GFS like outcome.

[Money]

GGEM ensembles are insane with several 985 L pressure systems in the area. Maps coming soon.

[gosaints]

Oh this storm is gonna make for some interesting commentery this week.

[Money]

HR 108

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016011100_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gemglb@gem007_108.png

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016011100_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem017@gem020_108.png

[Money]

UKIE has joined the party 

 

HR 96

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

HR 120

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[hlcater]

I wouldnt either but I don't like the GFS solution

[Tom]

The only thing I'm taking in from the models ATM is the fact that once again, the LRC/30- day cycle proved to a great forecasting technique and the models are honing in a strong storm system in the same region (s) this particular storm formed in previous cycles.  The fact that each op run, and ensemble run, it seems this storm is trending stronger.  It was a large storm in the LRC's cycle #1 and the 30-day cycle so I'm optimistic it will repeat again during this period.

[Tom]

UKIE has joined the party 

 

HR 96

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

HR 120

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

Ukie looks like the Euro and came south from 12z...

[Tom]

Might as well fire up a separate storm thread Geo's...looks like it will be a busy week!

[Money]

Ukie looks like the Euro and came south from 12z...

 

Ukie never had a storm at 12z. It kept it northern stream dominant. Basically just a strong clipper. 

[Geos]

The low does start to occlude on the GFS, but a bit too late. Need a slightly cooler scenario than 12/28.

 

[Tom]

00z GGEM similar to the Euro and has a 990mb SLP in S IL...

[Tom]

Ukie never had a storm at 12z. It kept it northern stream dominant. Basically just a strong clipper. 

Ahhh....

[Geos]

Ukie looks like the Euro and came south from 12z...

 

I like that track. High is further south which is good.

 

Yeah I'm going to start a thread for this.

[Tom]

I like that track. High is further south which is good.

I'll fire up a storm thread...

[Money]

Interested to see the euro run tonight. It was the only model to show a system cutting through the GL/MW areas and now the other models have followed. 

[Tom]

Interested to see the euro run tonight. It was the only model to show a system cutting through the GL/MW areas and now the other models have followed. 

Yup, so the King Euro may have taken the first step sniffing this storm out 2 days ago..

[Geos]

Let's all travel over here>>> http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1156-115-116-winter-storm/

[gosaints]

Instead of cold and dry maybe we should of called it cold and a couple doses of powder.

[winterfreak]

Lezak starting to give up on winter here already. Not a good sign.

[Tom]

Some interesting notes on this week's AO Update from AER:

 

 

 

The models are now coming into better consensus for a stronger pulse of energy transfer beginning next week that is predicted to initiate a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) at the end of the month.

 

 

 

• The overall negative AO and the elongated polar vortex favor cold temperatures in the middle of the continents including Siberia and the Plains of North America while and active storm track and vertical energy transfer favor more variable and seasonable temperatures in Western Europe and the United States East Coast.

 

That above statement alone fits with this year's LRC and suggests storms to continue targeting the central CONUS and not ride up along the EC.

 

We should see a pullback some time later next week...

 

 

 

This pattern will be in place through next week but as the AO trends positive, temperatures are predicted to become more seasonable across the Central and Eastern United States.

 

 

 

The AO will trend negative this week as geopotential heights continue to build across the Arctic.  However next week the predicted strong pulse of vertical energy will force a positive trend in the tropospheric AO but a negative trend in the stratospheric AO.  Once the SSW peaks the tropospheric AO will once again trend negative and the overall negative AO should persist longer than the initial negative AO event that is currently ongoing and is predicted to initiate the SSW. 

 

 

 

Therefore we are more confident that a troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling event is underway (Cohen et al. 2007).   The current strong negative AO is a tropospheric precursor that will initiate a strong burst of vertical energy transfer from the troposphere into the stratosphere the last week of January as seen in the vertical wave activity flux (WAFz) plot (Figure 7).  More recent model runs have trended stronger with this energy burst and are indicating this energy burst will be of sufficient amplitude to initiate a SSW during the last week of January.  

[OKwx2k4]

I'll have a hit of whatever the GFS is smoking tonight. Lol

[winterfreak]

GFS is a big time weenie run for us.

[Maxim]

lol garbage model

[OKwx2k4]

lol garbage model

They all are right now. Worst I've seen them all in a long time.

[OKwx2k4]

GFS is a big time weenie run for us.

Lol. Yeah. Crazy. Tomorrow it will be snowing in North Florida. Haha.

[winterfreak]

Lol. Yeah. Crazy. Tomorrow it will be snowing in North Florida. Haha.

Seems pretty reasonable. Obviously not expecting a storm like what is currently depicted but cute of the GFS nonetheless.

[Tom]

GFS is a big time weenie run for us.

00z Euro looks very similar as well.  Looks like a west/east almost zonal pattern sets up later next week and with enough residual cold air around we could be seeing a snowy pattern.

[winterfreak]

Lezak also saying Feb will be above average and wet.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

 

The 12Z GFS goes crazy over Nebraska.  If only this could partially play out.

[Snowlover76]

GFS 12Z Jan. 12.gif

 

 

The 12Z GFS goes crazy over Nebraska. If only this could partially play out.

 

If only.

[NEJeremy]

We've seen that map more than once this winter for Nebraska. Won't be holding my breath for that to come true

[CentralNebWeather]

I have never seen the entire state covered in this much snow.  Obviously this has little to no chance of playing out.  It looks like it comes between the 18th and 21st and then a 2nd storm from the 23-24.  Is any other forecast model even remotely showing storminess through this time?  

[OKwx2k4]

Euro now has an I-44 special cutting through Oklahoma into SE KS and SW MO. Not buying it yet but it is plausible.

[hlcater]

I think what we can gather here is that there will be a significant storm. Somewhere. Where it goes, how much cold air it has and how strong it will be is still unknown but will become clearer with time. Several models have something around the 210-240hr time frame. Will wait to see if this verifies.

[OKwx2k4]

I think what we can gather here is that there will be a significant storm. Somewhere. Where it goes, how much cold air it has and how strong it will be is still unknown but will become clearer with time. Several models have something around the 210-240hr time frame. Will wait to see if this verifies.

True. This is the first time the op euro has shown the storm with the correct orientation as far as the repeating pattern that it came from. That's why it raises my interest. We'll see if it's still there at midnight. As with the rest, will likely be further SE of the last few like it.

[Geos]

GFS 12Z Jan. 12.gif

 

 

The 12Z GFS goes crazy over Nebraska.  If only this could partially play out.

 

That's probably the most snowy map I've seen for Nebraska for the last couple winters.