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Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out


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Can't wait till the SW Flow part of the LRC returns around the 21st...blocking looks like it will stick around somewhat and I'm sure there will be more juiced up systems.  Euro Ensembles already picking up on troughing in the extended down near the 4 corners region.

 

12z EPS is blossoming with increased snow chances.  I think we are about to enter a phenomenal period in the central CONUS.  Should be pretty exciting.

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I tell you one thing, the typical el Niño pattern with storms cutting up the East Coast has yet to show itself. One does look to head up the coast in the short term, but it looks to be mainly rain.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GFS also looks a lot warmer shortly after hour 240. El Niño sucks.

 

At least it looks short lived. Another Arctic attack come towards 324 hours.

System at 192 hours, that could be of interest in your area.

 

Good thing is that the effects of el Nino is on the decrease.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I personally think Jan will end up being the coldest month this winter season. I see no reason why the current pattern should persist all throughout Feb, unless you're banking on the PV to be completely dislodged, or the Arctic to keep torching like it has been (both highly unlikely). So pretty confident on a torchy Feb/March at the moment.

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I personally think Jan will end up being the coldest month this winter season. I see no reason why the current pattern should persist all throughout Feb, unless you're banking on the PV to be completely dislodged, or the Arctic to keep torching like it has been (both highly unlikely). So pretty confident on a torchy Feb/March at the moment.

I actually agree with this. At the least the first half of Feb will be above average. After that odds really aren't in most people's favor as we head into late Feb and March because of climo. At least here.

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Pattern is going to light up with snow chances for those who haven't seen much this winter.  Those that are farther north are going to stay cold/dry as expected.  Anyone from I-80 on south has a real good chance at seeing snow fall as the SW Flow part of the LRC kicks in.

 

Euro Ensembles are continually increasing the chances of snowfall from the Plains/Midwest/Lakes/OV Week 1-2.  

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Pattern is going to light up with snow chances for those who haven't seen much this winter.  Those that are farther north are going to stay cold/dry as expected.  Anyone from I-80 on south has a real good chance at seeing snow fall as the SW Flow part of the LRC kicks in.

 

Euro Ensembles are continually increasing the chances of snowfall from the Plains/Midwest/Lakes/OV Week 1-2.  

If we do get an active period with real storm chances why do you feel that a southerly storm track makes sense???

 

We have storms cut north and west this year that went against any sort of teleconnection rule...  

 

We will also most likely continue to battle having precip type issues with any real systems

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00z Euro prob had a fluke run...noticed the NAO spike way positive that run...the current 10mb/30mb warming that is happening may be wrecking havoc in the modeling.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

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As I sit here in Central Nebraska with a front on the door step and nothing else.  What a frustrating winter so far.  Don't know what I was expecting but more than this.  I really am hoping for changes going into Feb. and March.  The snow we had is pretty much gone except piles and shaded areas.  It actually hit the lower 50's yesterday and 60 to our west.  Southern and parts of Central Nebraska really have had very little snow.  Bummed but hoping for better times, what else can I do?

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This would make for an interesting solution

 

 

 

 

With an active subtropical jet this isn't very likely to play out. The EURO has shown a couple other cut off lows this winter in the 10 day range, but they haven't come true.

This is something that is common in late Spring.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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As I sit here in Central Nebraska with a front on the door step and nothing else.  What a frustrating winter so far.  Don't know what I was expecting but more than this.  I really am hoping for changes going into Feb. and March.  The snow we had is pretty much gone except piles and shaded areas.  It actually hit the lower 50's yesterday and 60 to our west.  Southern and parts of Central Nebraska really have had very little snow.  Bummed but hoping for better times, what else can I do?

Think if you lived in Boston. You go from 108 inches last year to 1.2 so far. East coast has been a nightmare for snow lovers

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