Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[winterfreak]

As long as we have a +AO/NAO we will not see any cold air. We need some blocking too. Just wash, rinse, repeat as more storms go to waste. GFS stays warm through the whole run. I've given up until the second week of January for snow. Looks like that may be the best shot I have at seeing the first flakes of winter.

[james1976]

Yup 12z GFS way warm even though the storm take a more SE track. 

[Tom]

That was the flukiest GFS run I've seen thus far...meanwhile, 12z GGEM dumps a major snowstorm in the Plains/Midwest.  AO/NAO going to play a big role with this system.  00z Euro suggests a negative regime, the last 12z GFS had a sky high AO/NAO...something's wrong here....

[gosaints]

What does the eps do with the AO NAO? Gfs ensmbles in step with the operational...

[Tom]

What does the eps do with the AO NAO? Gfs ensmbles in step with the operational...

Neutral...since it's 12z EPS from yesterday, it has been steadily bringing it down towards neutral...Euro op is negative...will have to see the trends and see where they take it.

[Tom]

12z GGEM...closer look...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015121912/gem_asnow_ncus_40.png

[gosaints]

Neutral...since it's 12z EPS from yesterday, it has been steadily bringing it down towards neutral...Euro op is negative...will have to see the trends and see where they take it.

Yes

[CentralNebWeather]

That map would be great for Nebraska and Iowa but not everyone else. This storm will cause havoc for awhile until it closer.

[Tom]

Ah ha...that's what I've been waiting for...latest Euro MJO starting to show signs it wants to head towards the colder phases 7 & 8...just in time for a fresh start to the New Year.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small(64).gif

[Tom]

Here are the MJO composites for DJF..

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/DJF/combined_image.png

[winterfreak]

Not sure the GFS run was that fluky when that's been the persistent pattern for a while now. The AO/NAO is pretty positive now. Those readings would have to drop like a rock for the system after Christmas to produce any wintry weather. Getting to just neutral won't do a whole lot. At least not this far south. Relying on storms to generate their own cold air is not a good recipe for snow. Especially given the pattern we're stuck in.

[james1976]

Love the GGEM run, wow. Not counting on much but hopefully we'll get this thing into negative territory. What is 12z Euro showing?

[clintbeed1993]

EURO looks like a bust.  Storm goes way South towards Tennessee.

[clintbeed1993]

However it has a lot of cold air this run, so without being able to see snowfall maps maybe someone gets some snow in the area?

[Andrew NE]

Hr 216 L is in down in Mississippi and hour 240 it's all the way in upstate New York.

[CentralNebWeather]

Model mayhem. Look at this snow over Nebraska at 198 hours on the 18z gfs. Seems like every run is completely different. Not excited just curious of what will ultimately happen in the next 10 days.

[winterfreak]

Have fun Nebraska. The weenie in me is starting to slowly give up hope on a turnaround.

[CentralNebWeather]

Don't give up hope. In the last few days that snow has moved hundreds of miles. By tomorrow it may have shifted over you. I am just confused by the gfs and how it has such huge changes from run to run

[Tom]

12z EPS def starting to look like a pattern change is forming around the New Year and developing a classic "hook over the top".  It's also picking up on that storm system around the New Year which fits the Bearing Sea Rule/LRC/East Asian Theory.  Might this be the "big" dog we are looking for???

 

Snowy signal for the storm post-Christmas storm out in NE/KS and Northwoods.

[Tom]

Model mayhem. Look at this snow over Nebraska at 198 hours on the 18z gfs. Seems like every run is completely different. Not excited just curious of what will ultimately happen in the next 10 days. image.jpg

Teleconnections this run are way different than the 12z and that's why we saw a different result.  I watched the EPS snow maps for the last storm that hit the high Plains and they always were NW of you guys and nailed it.  I have a feeling NE folks are going to cash in on this one.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks again tom for the explanation.

[Geos]

As long as we have a +AO/NAO we will not see any cold air. We need some blocking too. Just wash, rinse, repeat as more storms go to waste. GFS stays warm through the whole run. I've given up until the second week of January for snow. Looks like that may be the best shot I have at seeing the first flakes of winter.

 

If the EPO were to tank we'd get some. maybe enough for snow.

[Geos]

I see some encouraging signs from the EURO. Wouldn't be surprised if the operational holds onto that storm given the stormy pattern were in, just need to drop the AO and/or the EPO.

Baroclinic zone like that would be a shame to waste.

 

[jaster220]

I see some encouraging signs from the EURO. Wouldn't be surprised if the operational holds onto that storm given the stormy pattern were in, just need to drop the AO and/or the EPO.

Baroclinic zone like that would be a shame to waste.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121912/ecmwf_T850_us_9.png

 

So, is it the Euro against the world right now on this potential system/storm? Everyone else seems to be writing it off as a warm storm for our region.

[winterfreak]

Gary Lezak says throw out the 12z EURO run for the storm after Christmas.

[bud2380]

00z gfs essentially a non event post xmas

[bainbridgekid]

Interesting.

 

00z gives a large swath from Iowa through Southern Wisconsin light snow on Christmas Day. Pretty different from previous drier runs.

 

 

 

[Geos]

EURO is digging the western trough more and the cold air pool is further south.

And there is a system right before the one above you posted Bainbridgekid.

 

 

850mb temps are cold enough.

 

 

A good area of real estate gets covered by snow by the 26th.

 

[Geos]

That's a much different pattern!

+PNA, -AO, -NAO

 

Looks like the ridge wants to built clear over the top of the pole. Polar vortex will be history in that case.

 

[bainbridgekid]

00z gfs essentially a non event post xmas

If you're talking about the 28th/29th, it really just takes a day longer to eject the storm. Still plenty of potential.

 

[bud2380]

Ggem also showing some decent snowfall on Christmas Day. Interesting

[Geos]

If you're talking about the 28th/29th, it really just takes a day longer to eject the storm. Still plenty of potential.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

 

Tremendous potential. Could be looking at a widespread blizzard if it were to eject slower.

[bainbridgekid]

Tremendous potential. Could be looking at a widespread blizzard if it were to eject slower.

I leave Chicago the 31st.

 

Expect a blizzard just in time to delay my flight. 

 

In all seriousness though, there is pretty good agreement for a fairly large storm somewhere in the Midwest the 28th or 29th considering it is nearly 10 days out.

 

Location, strength, and cold air availability are still completely up in the air, but potential is certainly there for something significant.

[Maxim]

lol @ gfs, I'll have whatever it's smoking.

[Geos]

It's not like it is really mild either. Surface temps just above freezing in the deformation band. 850mb temps are the only hang up.

 

 

[winterfreak]

Still way to warm unless you're in Wisconsin

[clintbeed1993]

EURO with a much different look than earlier.  Monster storm tracks from Kansas up into Iowa.  If someone could post snow map that would be great.

[Money]

EURO with a much different look than earlier.  Monster storm tracks from Kansas up into Iowa.  If someone could post snow map that would be great.

 

It's always had that storm.

[clintbeed1993]

It's always had that storm.

 

Yeah, was it that far North before?  No, it wasn't.

[Money]

Yeah, was it that far North before?  No, it wasn't.

 

Yeah it was.