Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[WildWisconsinWeather]

How much of a base is leftover from the snow and sleet storm?

 

We do have a few inches of a base, so at least we have snowcover.  That being said, some people love snowcover, and some are more about the big storms.  I am the latter.  If I was a snowcover lover, this definitely wouldn't be a bad month at all, but alas that is not everyone.

[Tom]

Question for Tom: what happened to this active pattern that was supposed to develop through the middle of the country?  Besides the 6" storm I had back on December 28th, meteorological winter has featured at most 2" type events.  I was saying and thinking a year or two back that you'd be talking up any pattern as an active/snowy one, and it seems I was right.  If you don't like that I just use my backyard, ask just about anyone on this forum, and they will say it has not been a good pattern for snow, and only recently a decent one for cold.

Since when does nature spread the wealth on every storm???  Folks in the Plains/Midwest will get a couple chances of more snow and I said it would be south of I-80 due (except near NE/IA) to the suppression of the cold.  Look, even I am a bit surprised that the last storm didn't materialize along with other met's that developed the LRC Theory.  It happens.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Since when does nature spread the wealth on every storm???  Folks in the Plains/Midwest will get a couple chances of more snow and I said it would be south of I-80 due (except near NE/IA) to the suppression of the cold.  Look, even I am a bit surprised that the last storm didn't materialize along with other met's that developed the LRC Theory.  It happens.

 

To be fair, it hasn't been 'spread the wealth' on any storm yet this year.  It's been thread the needle basically with every decent storm for someone on this forum.  A big part of the reason the LRC is unreliable are the different teleconnection states, which I think mets like Lezak should explain a bit more.  The current +PNA is a large part of why it hasn't been very active in January (even in terms of overall precip).  That looks to continue for the foreseeable future, and is a big reason why strong Ninos rarely yield in the Great Lakes (outside the lake belts) and Upper Midwest.

[Tom]

To be fair, it hasn't been 'spread the wealth' on any storm yet this year.  It's been thread the needle basically with every decent storm for someone on this forum.  A big part of the reason the LRC is unreliable are the different teleconnection states, which I think mets like Lezak should explain a bit more.  The current +PNA is a large part of why it hasn't been very active in January (even in terms of overall precip).  That looks to continue for the foreseeable future, and is a big reason why strong Ninos rarely yield in the Great Lakes (outside the lake belts) and Upper Midwest.

Part of the problem I've been hearing is the jet is so strong this season and storm systems "whisp" on by without having a chance to phase...even when there is a -AO/-NAO!  That's pretty rare to see.  Something I haven't yet seen in my years.  Who knows, maybe the jet relax's a bit later in Feb/Mar and there will be some bigger storms to track.

 

IMO, an active pattern is set when you start seeing any kind of system whether it be a Clipper or a weak wave or wound up storm that hits every 2-3 days.  We've had a Clipper hit around here last week, missed the Fri/Sat storm...now parts of NE/IA are going to get some weak frontal snows this Sat/Sun, then another open wave on Tue/Wed.  I'm sure the met's out there are saying this is an active pattern...but of course, in our back yard its not going to be.  Then prospects for next Thu/Fri are still on the table....so you see, there is an active pattern but not the BIG storms I'm sure your hoping for.  The pattern continues into the following week as well as storms continue to hit the west coast.

[Tom]

I'm seeing the Euro backing off the "warmer" idea near the Lakes later next week/weekend with a +PNA pattern.  GFS also seems to be trending that way also.  I think the Plains will feel the "warming" much more than around here later next weekend due to down sloping winds off the Rockies.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Part of the problem I've been hearing is the jet is so strong this season and storm systems "whisp" on by without having a chance to phase...even when there is a -AO/-NAO!  That's pretty rare to see.  Something I haven't yet seen in my years.  Who knows, maybe the jet relax's a bit later in Feb/Mar and there will be some bigger storms to track.

 

IMO, an active pattern is set when you start seeing any kind of system whether it be a Clipper or a weak wave or wound up storm that hits every 2-3 days.  We've had a Clipper hit around here last week, missed the Fri/Sat storm...now parts of NE/IA are going to get some weak frontal snows this Sat/Sun, then another open wave on Tue/Wed.  I'm sure the met's out there are saying this is an active pattern...but of course, in our back yard its not going to be.  Then prospects for next Thu/Fri are still on the table....so you see, there is an active pattern but not the BIG storms I'm sure your hoping for.  The pattern continues into the following week as well as storms continue to hit the west coast.

 

It probably would only need one big storm to be called an active pattern with the smaller ones that are common, but having small systems every 2-3 days that do not cover a lot of real estate percentage wise for each should not be considered an active pattern.  These smaller systems are not even producing much rain this month in the areas that are warm enough to see rain.

[gosaints]

It probably would only need one big storm to be called an active pattern with the smaller ones that are common, but having small systems every 2-3 days that do not cover a lot of real estate percentage wise for each should not be considered an active pattern. These smaller systems are not even producing much rain this month in the areas that are warm enough to see rain.

Hello nino. West coast gets blasted.. the pacific is ruling

[bud2380]

Gfs trying to put together a decent system late week next week. Euro is about 800 miles south though. So not much confidence

[bud2380]

Anyone want to go to Missouri next week?  GFS just hammers Missouri with 3 separate snow events, each one progressively stronger.  Weak clipper tonight, moderate snow Tuesday/Wednesday. Heavy snow at the end of the week. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/WPJUDfA.png

[Tom]

lol long-range gfs is a torch

Unreliable model, right???

[Tom]

Anyone want to go to Missouri next week?  GFS just hammers Missouri with 3 separate snow events, each one progressively stronger.  Weak clipper tonight, moderate snow Tuesday/Wednesday. Heavy snow at the end of the week. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/WPJUDfA.png

If that should come into fruition, these parts would end up being above normal in the snowfall dept in about a week's time.  How quickly things can change.  12z EPS is also targeting this region.

[winterfreak]

Still on the far western fringes of all of those systems.

[Iowa2015]

Now just push that roughly 200 miles north.

[Tom]

Both GEFS/EPS have storm after storm crossing the U.S. over the next 2 weeks every 2-3 days.  Now, if that isn't an active pattern I don't know what else to say.

 

FYI, after a two day "brief" blip in the pattern Day 7-9...12z EPS suggest a return to below normal temps.  NW NAMER ridge tries to fire up again while the Aleutian Low intensifies quite a bit.  JMA Weeklies were seeing the same result Week 1-2.

[gosaints]

Now that we know any storm no matter the intesity signifies an active pattern its pretty easy to say a pattern is.active. Especially when flow is a thousand miles an hour.

 

I suppose one if the so called storms will turn into some thing...

[Tom]

Now that we know any storm no matter the intesity signifies an active pattern its pretty easy to say a pattern is.active. Especially when flow is a thousand miles an hour.

 

I suppose one if the so called storms will turn into some thing...

It's pretty easy to say that since no body on here, especially you and a few others, were indicating a cold/dry pattern.  I never believed in that, esp from I-80 and points south.  A storm, whether weak or strong, is a storm system...where it can produce flakes that will fly from the sky IMO.  I think many on here will agree with me.

[gosaints]

It's pretty easy to say that since no body on here, especially you and a few others, were indicating a cold/dry pattern. I never believed in that, esp from I-80 and points south. A storm, whether weak or strong, is a storm system...where it can produce flakes that will fly from the sky IMO. I think many on here will agree with me.

Oh and did you correctly predict what caused this cold dry pattern? I am sure you had to the cause of the AO dip nailed. If you say cold long enough in january and december at some point you will hit

 

Whats amazing is that amount of blocking.couldnt stop the nino induced flow.

 

And who predicted nino would hold

[chances14]

I don't really consider a parade of weak storms with small scale impacts as being in an active pattern. Sure mets may consider it an active pattern since their job is to forecast the weather. But for me, an active pattern is when we are tracking storms that have potential wide scale impacts. just my 2 cents 

[clintbeed1993]

Yes it's been active.  Issue is most haven't had much at all to show for it.  That's the frustrating part.  I am getting tired of these 1-3 inch nuisance snows.  Give me a big snowstorm or warmth.

[CentralNebWeather]

How about 1/2 inch nuisance snows. Had that last night around midnight and it had melted by 11 am in January with mostly cloudy skies

[Maxim]

Unreliable model, right???

Indeed, it's a bad model. Spits out random blotches of colder surface temps/850 mb temps that wouldn't make any sense given the overall set-up that it's depicting. The ensembles are much better IMO.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Anyone want to go to Missouri next week?  GFS just hammers Missouri with 3 separate snow events, each one progressively stronger.  Weak clipper tonight, moderate snow Tuesday/Wednesday. Heavy snow at the end of the week. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/WPJUDfA.png

 

That snow hole over Wisconsin is so laughably sad, might as well jump to spring if that's the current trend.

[CentralNebWeather]

I thought that only happened over central Nebraska. Sad winter so far for many of us on the forum.

[winterfreak]

GFS a disaster over the next week.

[Geos]

Part of the problem I've been hearing is the jet is so strong this season and storm systems "whisp" on by without having a chance to phase...even when there is a -AO/-NAO!  That's pretty rare to see.  Something I haven't yet seen in my years.  Who knows, maybe the jet relax's a bit later in Feb/Mar and there will be some bigger storms to track.

 

IMO, an active pattern is set when you start seeing any kind of system whether it be a Clipper or a weak wave or wound up storm that hits every 2-3 days.  We've had a Clipper hit around here last week, missed the Fri/Sat storm...now parts of NE/IA are going to get some weak frontal snows this Sat/Sun, then another open wave on Tue/Wed.  I'm sure the met's out there are saying this is an active pattern...but of course, in our back yard its not going to be.  Then prospects for next Thu/Fri are still on the table....so you see, there is an active pattern but not the BIG storms I'm sure your hoping for.  The pattern continues into the following week as well as storms continue to hit the west coast.

 

That's exactly what I understand as well. Once the jet relaxes, look out! I know March of 98 was snowy after a dull February.

Really can't compare 97-98 to this winter though. Solar activity was higher then and the PDO was in the cold phase.

[Geos]

0z GFS was pretty good for eastern NE at least.

 

 

The mild look to next weekend has cooled off a lot on the GFS.

Models are really flopping around in this pattern.

 

I know if the MJO stays and cycles where it is, it will tend to be cooler in the Midwest.

 

Except for some lower heights over the North Pole in 7-8 days, ridging is pretty dominate this run in the Arctic.

 

 

Scandinavian Ridge pops back into the polar regions at day 10.

 

[gosaints]

0z GFS was pretty good for eastern NE at least.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011700/gfs_asnow_ncus_32.png

 

The mild look to next weekend has cooled off a lot on the GFS.

Not bad for boston

[Geos]

Would love to see this storm tap into that pool of polar air on Day 11.

 

[OKwx2k4]

I don't believe in snow anymore. Lol. Screw this winter.

[Money]

Couple 6z gfs ensembles crush Chicago/Milwaukee areas on the hr 108 storm

[GDR]

Couple 6z gfs ensembles crush Chicago/Milwaukee areas on the hr 108 storm

not happening!

[Tom]

Dr. Cohen has since changed his tune...models are flip flopping big time for the extended period...

 

 

 

If you enjoy winter weather, IMHO the 0Z GFS was as as optimal a solution as you could have hoped for- #SSW and -AO!

 

[winterfreak]

Hard to get excited about cold when there's no snow to show for. Whiff on Tuesday, whiff on Thursday most likely, and nothing really on the horizon after that for awhile. Sums up winter in a nutshell so far.

[Niko]

Huge snowstorm for the EC next week. GFS and Euro are both caving in. A 2 footer for the Philly area, NYC 12"+, Wash, DC as well. Boston, somewhat less for now. Still changes are to be expected throughout next week, but models are looking at a major snowstorm for late next week. Who gets how much is still in the air. Hopefully, we can cash in at some of that wealth by bringing that storm more inland.

[Tom]

Huge snowstorm for the EC next week. GFS and Euro are both caving in. A 2 footer for the Philly area, NYC 12"+, Wash, DC as well. Boston, somewhat less for now. Still changes are to be expected throughout next week, but models are looking at a major snowstorm for late next week. Who gets how much is still in the air. Hopefully, we can cash in at some of that wealth by bringing that storm more inland.

If that system can come out of the Rockies stronger and track across the country it can trend farther north.  Nonetheless, the EC may finally get their first big snow of the season.

[Money]

If that system can come out of the Rockies stronger and track across the country it can trend farther north.  Nonetheless, the EC may finally get their first big snow of the season.

 

12z GFS started out stronger than 6z but spacing between waves was awful. Need it to slow down.

[Tom]

12z GFS started out stronger than 6z but spacing between waves was awful. Need it to slow down.

This one has a good potential to lay down a large swath of snows from the Rockies to the EC.

[gosaints]

12z GFS started out stronger than 6z but spacing between waves was awful. Need it to slow down.

Ckicking through the gfs its amazing.how fast those systems scream across the country

[Tom]

As the EPO relaxes, this allows the Pacific to feed waves of energy into the central CONUS. With enough residual cold air in the region, the GFS is suggesting a system every 2-3 days starting this Tue/Wed.  Let's see how much certain parts of the sub-forum can build up their snow pack over the coming 10 days.

[gosaints]

Relaxing epo might be an understatement.  Like where all the teleconnectors seem to be heading