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Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out


Geos

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Not surprise to see a cut off low in this type of pattern. Cut off lows can go a bunch of different ways. Impossible to pin down a track on it. Can hope that the northern branch of the jet stream has more amplitude to itself and there is no cut off low. They muck up everything, imo.

 

It takes a ridge building south of Alaska to reroute the jet stream into the Southwest to kick it on out.

 

 

But after that the pattern starts looking a bit better.

 

 

Then towards New Years the AO flips to negative, while a West Coast ridge sets up.

 

 

Low heights dominate the Bearing Sea though the end of the run. That extreme strong ridge on the other side of the global will be the demise of the polar vortex.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The core of the vortex; at least on this update, looks to get larger pushed towards Greenland. 

 

 

 

 

Lot of changes coming in the next 10-14 days.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom, will there be enough cold air? Nws Hastings is concerned about a warm layer aloft and freezing rain. I would take the snow any day even though we have relatives coming here for Christmas from Kansas City on the 26th.

All depends on how strong that HP will be to supply the cold air.  We won't have a good idea till about 3 days out.  However, I think your sitting in a great spot.  00z EPS keeps pumping out a great snowy signal for your region.

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last few posts are looking at cut off low around a week out. This is lunacy. As Tom said,, 3 days out at the max--- try 24 hours with a cut off low. Any snow that falls before that will have a huge impact where the "cut off" low moves. Really not even worth discussing at this point and shows the lack of winter soo far..

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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For those of us in the eastern half of the forum, this is a broken record that keeps playing over and over and over in 82/83 fashion. On to January! Hopefully at least you guys further west can score on this - best of luck.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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EURO looks like garbage again. Cut off low and western plains cutter.

Yeah. That's the look right now. Still wondering if the low won't swing out to the east a little more as time goes before ejecting NE. It's just a funny track for such a powerful storm. We'll just have to see. Still a few days to go yet.

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Was reading that this Scandinavian Ridge might be the whole key to turning this pattern on its head and weakening the polar vortex.

Need to get the ridge to aim towards the pole a little better. It will at least weaken it and make it harder for it to keep all the polar/arctic air locked up.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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