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But but but the models show 3 or more inches 14+ days out when the pattern that has been changing since mid-december!!!!!!

This might be a backloaded Winter. We just have to wait and see. So far 1st half of Jan looks like is most likely gone. The other half has a little hope. After that, we are left we February and a little March. :blink:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This might be a backloaded Winter. We just have to wait and see. So far 1st half of Jan looks like is most likely gone. The other half has a little hope. After that, we are left we February and a little March. :blink:

After next 10 days (looking craptastic) Winter has until Feb 29th to show up.  That leaves a 6 week window.    I hate winter in March.  Even the smallest of ponds here have NO ice.  It's Jan 3rd...

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After next 10 days (looking craptastic) Winter has until Feb 29th to show up.  That leaves a 6 week window.    I hate winter in March.  Even the smallest of ponds here have NO ice.  It's Jan 3rd...

Yep, Late Winter in March is no fun w that high sun angle, higher average temps, longer days and etc, but we do also get some big time storms develop at that time of year. The bad thing is that snow melts the next day even if temps are below freezing. That sun angle will melt it in a heartbeat.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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After next 10 days (looking craptastic) Winter has until Feb 29th to show up.  That leaves a 6 week window.    I hate winter in March.  Even the smallest of ponds here have NO ice.  It's Jan 3rd...

This is going to be another bad winter, where we get two or three weeks of really good stuff at the end.

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and spring doesn't arrive until the end of May.

 

Would be nice if we could at least get another Morch but ain't gonna hold my breath this is indeed looking like a copy-cat season to last winter as I've hinted at since the beginning..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It looks as though it will be turning colder and stormier in about another ten days or so.  Seems like we've been hearing that since early December.  I'm pretty much done with this winter.  I personally don't think sustained cold and snow is ever going to come - until late March or April.  Mark my words, another mild winter followed by a cold and miserable spring. Maybe we all should just move to Florida and be done with Midwest winters for good! 

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I can hold on to undying hope longer than most I know, but going just over 6 years without a legit snowstorm or even severe sleet or ice has about finally killed the last of my ambition. I'm disappointed and I hate that. The cooler summers but with 50%+ more humidity than usual and the extra 14 summer (weather type) months spread over the last decade were a pretty crappy trade.

 

I miss taking about winter weather, but if I talk about it I just get angry.

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It's 2020 and I want my winter back.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Darn it...wish that SER was not that strong.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Not really a complaint, but I do want to apologize for my sour attitude recently. Sometimes mother nature can bite you in the *** and snow misses you in every direction. I've seen it back home in Mississippi and I've seen it here in Nebraska. Maybe things turn around, and maybe they don't, but I wish everyone the best of luck. February has been a really good month and recent years and I wouldn't be surprised at all if that continued. At the end of the day, weather does what it does - and usually pisses me off, but it's one of the most amazing things that we're given. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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I can't really complain about the amount of snow I've received (I although I still want to) because I'm running about average for the year. Compared to most on here, it doesn't take much snow in KC to be running average. My complaint is with the models and the faith people put in them. There's been discussion recently about how the upcoming weeks could be epic with snowfall for the lower lakes and Ohio Valley, and I think those predictions were based on a few runs of a couple of models that are now showing pretty average weather for the next few weeks. The models handled last week's storm pretty poorly, even within 24 hours of it starting. The models aren't worth much. They are good for showing that there's a GENERAL CHANCE of a general weather pattern over a general period of time, with less and less likelihood of being right the further out you go. Relying on them for anything other than that purpose is an exercise in futility. So I guess my complaint is with the lack of accuracy in the models, the false hopes they create, and our inability to truly recognize that we shouldn't be giving them much weight. We should view them the same way we'd view a friend who is a pathological liar. We keep them around because for some reason we like to have them there, but we shouldn't believe a word they say.

This actually goes back to something I've mentioned and agree with wholeheartedly.

 

I've been a hobbyist long enough to know and remember the times when it was common knowledge that models were GUIDANCE and the ultimate skill still belonged in the hand of the forecaster to make discretionary decisions based on real experience.

 

Now it's not really the case. I think they fall on them as a forecast rather than a tool for guidance in our time now. The models have been updated so many times recently (last few years) that I don't think people know their weaknesses and biases as well as well as they used to. Hard to correct for something you're unfamiliar with. I used to know both the euro and GFS "weaknesses" but I honestly couldn't tell you many now except that the GFS tends to run a +4°F vs reality increase over the course of it's 16 day runs here.

 

I think a lot of wisdom has left, passed away or retired out of the weather profession in the last 10 years too. Could be a lot of things though.

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This actually goes back to something I've mentioned and agree with wholeheartedly.

 

I've been a hobbyist long enough to know and remember the times when it was common knowledge that models were GUIDANCE and the ultimate skill still belonged in the hand of the forecaster to make discretionary decisions based on real experience.

 

Now it's not really the case. I think they fall on them as a forecast rather than a tool for guidance in our time now. The models have been updated so many times recently (last few years) that I don't think people know their weaknesses and biases as well as well as they used to. Hard to correct for something you're unfamiliar with. I used to know both the euro and GFS "weaknesses" but I honestly couldn't tell you many now except that the GFS tends to run a +4°F vs reality increase over the course of it's 16 day runs here.

 

I think a lot of wisdom has left, passed away or retired out of the weather profession in the last 10 years too. Could be a lot of things though.

 

I agree. I remember a couple of years back someone posting a link to a meteorologist (maybe retired) from Nebraska that made this very point. Forecasters were not clear on model bias anymore because of the frequent updates. Maybe it's just me, but it seems the models are not as reliable or "predictable" as they used to be. I take most of them with a grain of salt anymore, especially for winter weather events.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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I agree. I remember a couple of years back someone posting a link to a meteorologist (maybe retired) from Nebraska that made this very point. Forecasters were not clear on model bias anymore because of the frequent updates. Maybe it's just me, but it seems the models are not as reliable or "predictable" as they used to be. I take most of them with a grain of salt anymore, especially for winter weather events.

That was Jim Flowers a local met. He looked at everything. His forecast were very detailed. My dad used to be that way too, but to busy with project management to do all the details. Although push comes to shove I can get him to go all out on a forecast.
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attachicon.gifFB_IMG_1579016244516.jpg

And that's just the last 4 days here in Oklahoma! Now it feels like early April out there.

Love it!  I have a feeling that the way this winter is progressing our biggest snowfall of the season will have been the Halloween snowstorm.  Got almost 6" that day.  Just not expecting anything much the rest of the year.  Don't want to get my hopes up only to have them dashed against the rocks.

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  • 2 weeks later...

5TH Warmest start to winter in Grand Rapids history.  The gripe is real.  Slightly above normal for the next 6 days as well which will take us into February.  

It's likely that we'll go into February here with only 2 days below average in January. Went to Pennsylvania this week where the high was in the teens and it felt brutal to me. That's not normal.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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It's likely that we'll go into February here with only 2 days below average in January. Went to Pennsylvania this week where the high was in the teens and it felt brutal to me. That's not normal.

 

Yeah, not sure what I'll do if/when we get truly frigid temps after all the mild. Ofc I remember last Jan's PV fly-by and cringe at that level of cold if Tom's correct. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Man, this Winter is a joke!!!!!!!!!!! Getting rain at the coldest part of Winter.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Man, this Winter is a joke!!!!!!!!!!! Getting rain at the coldest part of Winter.

 

I've seen warmer winters such as 97-98's super nino, and some just plain mild (and boring) like 11-12. But yeah, there's just something not right about this. It's pretty telling when I had an historic November for snow, yett it will take a serious end of season rally JUST TO CATCH my 2011-12 total of 44"!

 

Oddly tho, a guy from Detroit that's always looking up historical data found numerous warm clunkers like this way back in the late 1800's, which is shocking since we all think this is a sign of GW.  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I've seen warmer winters such as 97-98's super nino, and some just plain mild (and boring) like 11-12. But yeah, there's just something not right about this. It's pretty telling when I had an historic November for snow, yett it will take a serious end of season rally JUST TO CATCH my 2011-12 total of 44"!

 

Oddly tho, a guy from Detroit that's always looking up historical data found numerous warm clunkers like this way back in the late 1800's, which is shocking since we all think this is a sign of GW.  ;)

I remember that year being sooooo uneventful here. That was the year I moved to Mi.

 

Amigo, I have a good feeling about February and March. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I remember that year being sooooo uneventful here. That was the year I moved to Mi.

 

Amigo, I have a good feeling about February and March. :D

 

I hope you're onto something. 12z GFS showed a nice stormy look for us over the next 2 weeks. Ofc, that will change a 1,000 times, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I hope you're onto something. 12z GFS showed a nice stormy look for us over the next 2 weeks. Ofc, that will change a 1,000 times, lol

I trust the GFS more than any other model. It hints at long range storms by far the best outta any other models.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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5TH Warmest start to winter in Grand Rapids history.  The gripe is real.  Slightly above normal for the next 6 days as well which will take us into February.  

Early February is looking like a big "Yawn." Hope that changes.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Is it just me, or is the new type size too small? What was wrong with what we had.

Now I have to grab my glasses, especially on some of the graphs.

 

Any way to individually enlarge the type, or do I get a seeing eye dog??

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The snow we got was bad. It was really wet, so wet I couldn't make it down the flatter runs on the ski hill. I'd actually get stuck. I don't think I've ever seen it like that before. And of course, it was packed by 10am.

 

It was borderline slush, not that great for snowmobiling either. I'd be happy if it could get cold and freeze the base up, but it's going to be constantly slush and warm in the daytime, then turn into solid ice. Both on the snowmobile trails (if they can stay open past the weekend) and the ski hill.

 

On the bright side, the money I am saving on heating my house I can spend on video games instead.

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Is it just me, or is the new type size too small? What was wrong with what we had.

Now I have to grab my glasses, especially on some of the graphs.

 

Any way to individually enlarge the type, or do I get a seeing eye dog??

:lol:.......

 

I dint even noticed the font changed. When the heck did this happened

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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