12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[Tom]

We are about 4 days out and models have converged on a potentially significant weather maker for the central CONUS post-Christmas.  Who will get snow/freezing rain/rain???  There are still many fluctuations among the models and placement of the axis of heaviest snowfall for snow lovers.  Let's discuss below.

 

The GFS has been the most consistent model of them all placing the heaviest snowfall in parts of TX Pan Handle/CO/KS/NE.  Latest 12z GFS has shifted the storm a bit SE now.

 

 

[Tom]

12z GFS with a pretty major shift SE now...lets see if the remainder 12z suite of runs agrees or if this is just a fluke run...the BIG difference in this run is the placement of the HP to the north.  Instead of it being placed due north of the system (as it was the case this run), previous runs had it farther east which allowed the system to cut almost due north.

 

00z GFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

 

 

12z GFS...the farther west or east the HP is placed, the more we will see this storm shift

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

[gabel23]

Holy cow shifted like 75-100 miles southeast....

[Tom]

Holy cow shifted like 75-100 miles southeast....

Crazy, right?  Could be the cold air dome that the fresh snow cover which has been being built up in recent days and in the up coming days.

[mlgamer]

That shift to the southeast actually puts me in the game for heavy snow rather than plain old rain.  Still a long ways to go though...

[Money]

Nicee

[Tom]

Nicee

I really hope you get hit with snow Money...you've been waiting wayyy to long for a big snow.  HP to the north is about 2mb stronger this run and a little shift west.  Put's you in the game now.

[Money]

I really hope you get hit with snow Money...you've been waiting wayyy to long for a big snow. HP to the north is about 2mb stronger this run and a little shift west. Put's you in the game now.

Yeah we've had like 1/2 inch of snow here so far if that lol

[CentralNebWeather]

I know some are liking the shift SE but not me.  I would be on the edge of nothing.  Will be waiting for future runs.

[Hawkeye]

Last night's Euro was slower to eject the system and weaker by the time it reached the upper midwest.  Even the stronger GFS would peak the system in the southern plains and then gradually fill it as it heads into the lakes.  Areas from Amarillo to Kansas could really get dumped on.

[Tom]

Last night's Euro was slower to eject the system and weaker by the time it reached the upper midwest.  Even the stronger GFS would peak the system in the southern plains and then gradually fill it as it heads into the lakes.  Areas from Amarillo to Kansas could really get dumped on.

Euro bias maybe???  It likes to hold energy in the west to long.

[jcwxguy]

      too bad i have to travel to wheaton, mn on the 25th then head back to lincoln, ne on the 28th 

[OKwx2k4]

It's coming up into the ballpark of where trends really start to matter. Doubt it will shift SE much more but still, what a storm!

[jcwxguy]

 

Moving this into this thread

[winterfreak]

Wow that's a close call on the 12z. Not expecting another shift south but nice to look at.

[jcwxguy]

12z candian is out, will post picture in a minute  

 

*its southeast of the gfs*

[jcwxguy]

12z gem

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Is that snow in eastern OK on the GGEM?

[winterfreak]

No cold air with the GEM though.

[jaster220]

Nice storm coming into focus here. Envious of course over here, but let's get some of y'all covered up over to my west and see how that could help going forward with the pattern transition into January! As a consolation, it look like at least northern Mich gets in on the action. They really need snow up there for recreational industry and plowing! Plus, I can always go up there to get a snow fix if it remains bad downstate.

[jaster220]

No cold air with the GEM though.

 

Yeah, has HP getting shunted east like the older GFS had.

[Tom]

12z Euro shifting everything farther south also...will post maps when fully loaded...HP is stronger to the north so far thru HR 120

[Tom]

This run may be a very close call for KC...nasty Blizzard showing up for all of KS this run...

[GDR]

In all seriousness someone is going to get hammered!

[Tom]

Def looks like the GFS/EURO are trending colder in the Plains to support more wintry precip...E NE/IA looks like they get buried this run....this storm is looking more and more impressive.

[OKwx2k4]

In all seriousness someone is going to get hammered!

Me. Lol. 5.5 inches of depressing rain and copious amounts of alcohol should do it! Haha.

[Guest Snowball]

Maps Tom?

[Tom]

Perfect track for NE....still about 5 days away but trends are looking better for NE/KS and even parts of IA...keep in mind temps in NE/KS are in the 20's...close call for those on the NE/IA border though.

[jcwxguy]

Lincoln

 

 

[winterfreak]

Nothing down this way. This one is really going to sting after the fact.

[Tom]

If someone has EuroWx maps, I'd like to see what the actual snow fall totals look like.  It seems this storm could dump close to 2 Feet of snow somewhere.

[Tom]

There is a lead wave that lays down a fresh layer of snow which I'm noticing the models are picking up on colder temperatures over the high Plains.  If this is a trend, looks good for those that are in the Plains.

[Tom]

TBH, the GFS has handled this storm the best out of all the models.  Even though the ECMWF has had a 95% accuracy within the 5-day range.

[gosaints]

need that high to the north to not get shunted to the east

[GDR]

Perfect track for NE....still about 5 days away but trends are looking better for NE/KS and even parts of IA...keep in mind temps in NE/KS are in the 20's...close call for those on the NE/IA border though.

seems like most models are trending se what are the chances of this thing moving more in that direction?

[Tom]

Freezing Rain/sleet scenario showing up for N IL/IA/WI on the 12z Euro...could be a treacherous scenario

[Tom]

seems like most models are trending se what are the chances of this thing moving more in that direction?

Given the fact we are still 6 days away, things are going to change from run to run.  It really all depends on what happens to the Canadian HP and if the flow in the mid-latitudes can slow the progression of the arctic HP to the east.  IA is still in the game IMO.

[gosaints]

Freezing Rain/sleet scenario showing up for N IL/IA/WI on the 12z Euro...could be a treacherous scenario

Ya Tom, I dont have access to good surface maps for the EURO but just the look of the high one would think it could seed some decent low level cold air.  What do surhace temps look like? and how much precip are we talking about?

[gabel23]

Given the fact we are still 6 days away, things are going to change from run to run.  It really all depends on what happens to the Canadian HP and if the flow in the mid-latitudes can slow the progression of the arctic HP to the east.  IA is still in the game IMO.

I could see this thing shift back to the nw or se. This is by far not even close to being locked in.....gonna be a fun couple days though!!! 

[Tom]

Bitter cold in the Plains post storm...this will certainly be a smack in the face by Ol' Man Winter!

 

Ya Tom, I dont have access to good surface maps for the EURO but just the look of the high one would think it could seed some decent low level cold air.  What do surhace temps look like? and how much precip are we talking about?

Up your way, temps are in the upper 20's the entire time...deduct about .70qpf from these totals...not looking pretty.