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12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm


Tom

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How quickly the models can change, ay???  This is going to be by far the largest winter storm of the season.  SOI is starting to fall along with the MJO entering favorable colder phases as we close the books on this extremely warm month.

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We are still several days away from this being anywhere close to being locked in and there will be many more shifts both ways. NW shifts have been the way to go in this early part of the winter season so lets see if the trend stops with this storm. Baby steps SE have been the trend so far today and I believe the Canadian has been the farthest SE the past several runs compared to the other models. Not saying it's right but something to keep an eye on.

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We are still several days away from this being anywhere close to being locked in and there will be many more shifts both ways. NW shifts have been the way to go in this early part of the winter season so lets see if the trend stops with this storm. Baby steps SE have been the trend so far today and I believe the Canadian has been the farthest SE the past several runs compared to the other models. Not saying it's right but something to keep an eye on.

As this pattern evolves (I don't believe we are locked in yet) and with dramatic changes suggested in January one would have to agree that a SE nudge over the next few runs should be anticipated. Kinda leans back to a post I made yesterday about places as far as east Tulsa to Durant in my state keeping a very close eye on things. I talked myself out of it though. Thinking now it may have been a solid call for being so early.

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As this pattern evolves (I don't believe we are locked in yet) and with dramatic changes suggested in January one would have to agree that a SE nudge over the next few runs should be anticipated. Kinda leans back to a post I made yesterday about places as far as east Tulsa to Durant in my state keeping a very close eye on things. I talked myself out of it though. Thinking now it may have been a solid call for being so early.

Where in OK are you located?

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.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 136 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

 

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...FCST CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO TIMING ONSET

OF PCPN IS RATHER LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES FOUND BTWN THE

ECM AND GFS. IN PARTICULAR...HOW EACH LIFT A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM

THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGH THRU MONDAY

EVENING WITH THE GFS ONCE AGAIN THE FASTER OF THE TWO. HOWEVER AND

UNFORTUNATELY...BOTH MODELS AGREE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEFTY SN

ACCUM WITHIN THE CWA TAKING PLACE NEXT MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM

DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING AS MAY WELL BE THE FIRST REAL WINTER STORM

OF THE SEASON FOR US.

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.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 136 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

 

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...FCST CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO TIMING ONSET

OF PCPN IS RATHER LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES FOUND BTWN THE

ECM AND GFS. IN PARTICULAR...HOW EACH LIFT A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM

THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGH THRU MONDAY

EVENING WITH THE GFS ONCE AGAIN THE FASTER OF THE TWO. HOWEVER AND

UNFORTUNATELY...BOTH MODELS AGREE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEFTY SN

ACCUM WITHIN THE CWA TAKING PLACE NEXT MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM

DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING AS MAY WELL BE THE FIRST REAL WINTER STORM

OF THE SEASON FOR US.

 

Man that's an early disco, they never put them out this early! Meanwhile, Dodge City, Ks already putting out information about this weekend. I just wish it could be here already because this thing is going to be changing back and forth until we get there! I won't be able to handle myself! I must say though, this is taking a very similar path as the X mas blizzard of 2009! 

FileL.png

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This would be a heck of an ice storm if this came to fruition.

I sure hope not, kinda wish this would be more of a bowling ball system.  I'd rather be crippled by a Blizzard then a crippling ice storm.  There is going to be a lot of low level cold air if that HP gets stronger or is placed farther west.  Who knows how this transpires.

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The models take the deep -PNA to about neutral during this period.  We may see a less pronounced east coast ridge in the coming days.  At the same time, the EPO tanks towards neutral as well.  Models have been busting high on the EPO from a few days ago.  Trending lower as move closer.

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I sure hope not, kinda wish this would be more of a bowling ball system.  I'd rather be crippled by a Blizzard then a crippling ice storm.  There is going to be a lot of low level cold air if that HP gets stronger or is placed farther west.  Who knows how this transpires.

The ground would be pretty warm to start but probably would not take long to ice up. I know ice storms are hard to come by around Chicago but not out of the question.

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I took this from nws Dodge City Kansas. They are taking this seriously 4 days out.

 

Saturday...Strong cutoff low settles into SE AZ by 6 pm, with

widespread diffluence aloft and warm air advection spreading over

the plains. Currently, feel Saturday will begin dry, with clouds

thickening and lowering. Widespread wintry mix of rain, freezing

rain and snow expected to overspread SW KS late Saturday

afternoon, with thermal profiles determining precipitation phase.

Travel conditions will begin deteriorating late Saturday. North

winds will increase dramatically late Saturday, gusting near

40 mph, in response to surface cyclogenesis beginning in W TX,

and 1040 mb surface high building into western Nebraska.

 

Sunday and Monday...Medium range models, including the latest 12z

GFS/ECMWF runs, have come into much better agreement regarding the

evolution of a strong winter storm expected to impact the plains.

It is emphasized, that just because the models agree 4-5 days away

from the storm`s arrival, does not mean the storm track can`t

change between now and then. Please stay tuned through the

remainder of the week as the forecast evolves. Current depictions

of the ECWMF model storm track shows a potentially crippling

snowstorm/blizzard from eastern New Mexico, to the Texas

Panhandle, the Oklahoma Panhandle, SE Colorado, and western Kansas

Sunday and Monday. This storm system is expected to intensify as

it lifts NE, suggesting deformation and forcing will be intense,

indeed models are cranking out QPF values of 0.50-1 inch in only 6

hour periods. Currently, forecasted thermodynamic profiles and

thicknesses suggest that much of this precipitation will take the

form of a heavy, wet windblown snow. As such, very heavy snowfall

amounts are expected...HOWEVER...the exact amounts and locations

of these amounts are still beyond the scope of the science of

meteorology. Details will become clearer over the next 2-3 days.

Suffice to say, computer models continue to indicate the potential

for a crippling blizzard for SW KS Sunday and Monday, and holiday

travelers returning home this weekend will be impacted. Stay tuned

for the latest, and keep a winter weather survival kit in your vehicle

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This is the moisture plot for 7 days. Just incredible for such a huge area.

WOW. That is something you would expect to see in May or June. NOT in December, incredible. 

 

LRC at it's finest, we knew going into this year the LRC set up to favor the Southern Plains. Throw in the El Nino and you have some incredible storm totals. 

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Tom look bad for ice up here as well?

Unfortunately, Yes...

 

Where and when are you referring to Tom?  I have that flight Monday morning and I don't need anything holding it up.

12z Euro shows precip knocking on the door just before Noon on Monday.

 

Meantime, 12z EPS target the central Plains for a major snow storm and possibly crippling Blizzard looking likely this far out.

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Unfortunately, Yes...

 

12z Euro shows precip knocking on the door just before Noon on Monday.

 

Meantime, 12z EPS target the central Plains for a major snow storm and possibly crippling Blizzard looking likely this far out.

WOW that would for sure make up for the crappy past couple years around here!!! That is 2+ feet of snow in SW Kansas, amazing!!!

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Green Bay AFD:

 

A SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING
SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO WILL CREATE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE/RAIN STORM WITH STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE IF
THESE MODELS ARE RIGHT.
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Jim flowers Facebook page with a new video. He is using euro model. Low tracks over Kansas City with Kansas and Nebraska getting rocked with snow if all verifies. Always a good source of detailed information if you have a couple of minutes. Meteorologist for kmtv in Omaha. Not in my local area but good stuff

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Chicago AFD at least mentioning the possibility of some snow at the beginning and end of this system.

 

SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY QUIET DAY OVER THE NORTHERN

HALF OF THE REGION...WITH THE RAIN TEMPORARILY SHIFTING SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THE SOUTHWEST UPPER SYSTEM...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA BY
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES IN
WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE. HOWEVER...ITS ARRIVAL WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA...POSSIBLY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION...IT APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION MAY ONSET AS A WINTER MIX
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
. HOWEVER...WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SO THE PRECIP SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD END
AS A PERIOD OF -SN UNDER THE COLD UPPER LOW EARLY ON TUESDAY.

HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF CONDITIONS WILL GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

 

I noticed the 12z GFS was the first run to show a quick couple inches Monday morning before switching to rain.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122212/gfs_asnow_ncus_26.png

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Not sure if precip images were posted but:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015122212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015122212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015122212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

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