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12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm


Tom

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Ends up taking the low to the south of Chicago. Not gonna cut up north with the HP to the north/west

That first wave which dumps 6-10" of snow in the Dakotas is probably the culprit on this run.  Where this first wave lays down snow is going to be crucial as to where the underlying storm track forms.

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4 PM NWS Hastings discussion:

 

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THIS IS THE TIME FRAME WHEN
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS NORTHEASTWARD
PUSH...AND WHILE THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWED A MARKED
IMPROVEMENT IN AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/LOCATION COMPARED TO THE 00Z
EC/06Z GFS...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF IMPROVEMENT TO BE MADE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GFS REMAINS ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF
THINGS...MOVING THE MAIN LOW INTO THE SERN CORNER OF KS...WITH THE
ECMWF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OK. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF REMAINS ABOUT 6 HRS SLOWER THAN
THE GFS...AND JUST A TOUCH TO THE WEST OF GFS TRACK. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BE SNOW...AND THIS PATH COULD
MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING START TO THE WORK WEEK. BOTH MODELS
CURRENTLY SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM...THOSE
WITH TRAVEL PLANS REALLY NEED TO STAY UP TO DATE TO THE LATEST
FORECAST. PLENTY YET TO BE IRONED OUT.

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A windy snow ice rain storm. That about covers everything! :)

 

 

Green Bay AFD:

 

A SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING
SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO WILL CREATE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE/RAIN STORM WITH STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE IF
THESE MODELS ARE RIGHT.

 

 

Maybe 3-5" central and northern WI Friday night Saturday. Hopefully that helps out on Monday.

JET ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE AN INVERTED
SURFACE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS CHICAGO
AFTER MIDNIGHT CHRISTMAS NIGHT. THIS PATTERN USUALLY PRETTY GOOD
FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST UPPER
SUPPORT AND COLD AIR IS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO MAYBE
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW THERE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
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Not one bit surprised that the 18z GFS is having a tough time with this as it doesn't sample upper air data. Being extremely cautious with getting on board with the runs from today and yesterday as we have been burned way too many times in these situations past. Would not be completely shocked if the main event ended up scooting east/southeast (of Nebraska) which would remain mostly rain for those areas (side note: HPC agreeing with track that takes storm east as well). Nevertheless, I sure hope I am wrong. The blocking high up north is KEY in addition to a true Ark-la-tex Low forming. 

 

 

Update: Per Jim Flowers, this post is void as dynamics agree with afternoon EURO and GFS output error. 

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Des Moines early take on it:
THE NEXT MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS LIFTING NORTHEAST. I THINK THE MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO FAST  
WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN HOW THE LOW IS DEEPENING BUT INITIALLY THIS  
WILL BE A RAIN PRODUCER WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW  
CHANGING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. THIS ONE MAY BE A POTENTIAL SNOW  
PRODUCER FOR US AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED BUT WILL ALSO BRING  
ADDITIONAL FLOODING THREATS.  

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I'm in Evanston, IL and am quite happy to see the SE trend continue on the 18z. Close to 200 miles SE of the 6z.

 

Brings the low in just South of Chicago and shows some legitimate snow amounts fairly close to Chicago.

 

Still a long ways to go here. Many more models to ride so buckle up!

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Here is the latest from Andrew from the weathercentre site. He really explains the potential and made me realize this storm is still in the Aleutians and I am worried about a 50 mile shift se 5 days away. Here is the link.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2015/12/december-26-29-potentially-significant.html?m=1

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