12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[Tom]

That HP is very cold on this run...its now showing snow in parts of N IL...

[jcwxguy]

Yeah, se

[CentralNebWeather]

At this rate it will be snowing in Atlanta and Jacksonville if it keeps moving SE at this rate.  Not sure of this according to some things I have read and the speed it is moving.  Will be interested in the Euro.  If it goes SE then I think my chances are diminishing.  

[Tom]

That air mass in the Dakotas keeps getting colder each run and shunting the system SE on the GFS.  The fresh snow pack from the first wave is causing the shift IMO.  Who knows what happens from here on out.  

[winterfreak]

Let's go ahead and lock that in.

[CentralNebWeather]

Jim Flowers new facebook video sure does not sing the praises of the GFS.  Says there has been model error for years.  If you get a chance watch his explanation.  Very interesting and I hope it verifies for Nebraskans sake.  He is pro Euro so that might be part of it.  I keep saying, let the best model win and by Monday night we can see which was correct.  Jim believes it will be the Euro track and not the latest GFS for what it is worth.

[bud2380]

i'm a fan of this run for sure.  I feel a bit bad for some of the Nebraska people who looked like they were going to cash in, but still plenty of time for this to move.  But the trend is definitely SE. 

[CentralNebWeather]

If anyone is up when the Euro snowfall maps come out and can post them I would greatly appreciate it.  

[bainbridgekid]

Huge improvement for Northern Illinois, Southern Wisconsin, Southern Michigan, Northern Indiana and Ohio.

 

The SE trend very apparent on the snowfall map and is quite impressive.

 

6z:

12z:

18z:

00z:

[Tom]

Jim Flowers new facebook video sure does not sing the praises of the GFS.  Says there has been model error for years.  If you get a chance watch his explanation.  Very interesting and I hope it verifies for Nebraskans sake.  He is pro Euro so that might be part of it.  I keep saying, let the best model win and by Monday night we can see which was correct.  Jim believes it will be the Euro track and not the latest GFS for what it is worth.

If the Euro begins the shift SE, then I'd start becoming hesitant.  Otherwise, there is still plenty of time to see how this evolves.  Gut tells me that the models were underplaying the magnitude of the HP.  We'll just have to see.

 

I'm going to try and stay up for the Euro.  Gotta be up at the crack of dawn tomorrow!

[GDR]

[clintbeed1993]

We need our snow in Nebraska or some of us might start to flip out.

[jcwxguy]

If anyone is up when the Euro snowfall maps come out and can post them I would greatly appreciate it.

 

I will if I'm still awake when it comes out

[CentralNebWeather]

With you clint

[bud2380]

Canadian similar to GFS in track, but no cold air once it moves out of Texas.  All rain.

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/goq0z8O.gif

[Jaycee]

In in SE MN, so I too will freak out. But I don't think it's necessary. Reflecting on the December 24th 2009 blizzard, same thing happened. I remember being on Craigs snowday website, freaking out that it went too far SE. 48 hours before, the inevitable NW turn occurs. Is this going to happen for sure? No. But since then, we've seen time and time again, that powerhouse storms like to hook, and, if anything, this thing will hook NW. Just my two cents #nojinx

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks for your insight I wasn't following weather that close in 2009. Hoping it comes back on gfs though so far euro is our friend through 12z run

[james1976]

GGEM seems a bit on its own. All other models are showing snow on the NW side.

[Jaycee]

GGEM seems a bit on its own. All other models are showing snow on the NW side.

As much as I love this model, how many times have we ever said "wow, the GGEM was right"? Again, I love it, sometimes it gets the track correct, but with precipitation it's usually pretty far off.

[Maxim]

I'd toss those SE tracks. That high isn't going to suppress the system that much. I can say with 100% certainty that this will be all rain for MBY.

[Maxim]

ripping flow right off of lake michigan isn't going to help either.

[bainbridgekid]

ripping flow right off of lake michigan isn't going to help either.

Sad we have to worry about that at the end of December.

[Maxim]

00z:

gfs_asnow_ncus_27.png

850 mb temps look too warm for that to fall as all snow too.

[jcwxguy]

Euro has initialized

[chances14]

850 mb temps look too warm for that to fall as all snow too.

yea gotta be careful with snowfall maps in areas with borderline temps, especially those from tropical tidbits

 

for comparison, here's the snowfall map from another site for the same timeframe

 

no snow for southern Michigan on this map compared to 12"+  on tropical tidbits

 

[Geos]

zoomed in euro

 

para top photo

 

Scary sharp gradient in southeast Nebraska. 

[Geos]

Sad we have to worry about that at the end of December.

 

We had that for the November system too, immediate lake shore areas might have issues. All depends on how deep the cold air is.

 

GFS is baby stepping in the right direction, hopefully it continues and holds.

[Maxim]

We had that for the November system too, immediate lake shore areas might have issues. All depends on how deep the cold air is.

 

GFS is baby stepping in the right direction, hopefully it continues and holds.

Winds weren't nearly as strong during the November system too, which would explain why the lake didn't cut down much on snow totals (with the exception of downtown, of course.)

[jcwxguy]

First wave to the north.

[CentralNebWeather]

Is that part of the bigger storm? I see that across South Dakota and am curious

[bainbridgekid]

We had that for the November system too, immediate lake shore areas might have issues. All depends on how deep the cold air is.

 

GFS is baby stepping in the right direction, hopefully it continues and holds.

Yeah my family in Evanston says they only got a few inches. Cousins in Deerfield reported 7" while O'Hare got 11.2.

[jcwxguy]

Nope, just first wave which will influence track of main storm

[Geos]

Winds weren't nearly as strong during the November system too, which would explain why the lake didn't cut down much on snow totals (with the exception of downtown, of course.)

 

True they were lighter.

 

One thing about the next 48 hours, strong west winds will act to updwell some colder water on the western side of Lake Michigan.

 

Surprisingly the warmest waters are actually further north.

 

 

[Geos]

Nope, just first wave which will influence track of main storm

 

Seeing plenty of cold air at 120 hours flowing in from Canada.

 

[jcwxguy]

.

[bainbridgekid]

A lot of warm air on the Euro as the low wraps up and moves North.

 

[jcwxguy]

Big change.

[winterfreak]

EURO snaps me back down to reality. Expecting a Rainer out of this one. Waiting for the GFS to cave.

[GDR]

I can't wait for Jim flowers explanation on why the euro sucked

[CentralNebWeather]

Would look like central and western Nebraska do better on this run than the gfs but not good this run for kc or eastern Nebraska. This will frustrate and teas all of us in the coming days