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January 2016 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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As we near the end of 2015, which will inevitably be a very warm year both nationally and globally, let's discuss our thoughts on what could be a rather impressive pattern change to open up 2016.

 

There is a lot going on in the atmosphere as we speak as El Nino begins to weaken and the PV begins to show signs of weakness.  Will this month provide a lot of snow for the snow geese or a tease???

 

10mb warming poking towards the Pole is a great sign for wintry weather fans...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

High latitude blocking is showing more consistency among the various global models and marry that with what has been a very active Pacific storm train, I have a good feeling there will be plenty of big storms to track as we open up the New Year!

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I don't think since I have started following weather that I have seen almost every teleconnection plus the the polar stratosphere flip all at once and prepare to unload some huge cold into the central US. Maybe in 09-10 but I didn't know enough about what was going on then to know if they did or not. Going to have an 8 week blitz of winter coming up and it's going to be fun!

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Every single run on the GEFS keeps torching the Arctic regions and blocks up the entire hemispheric flow as we open January.  It's almost the complete opposite of what we saw from Nov-Dec.  Not going to be easy breaking that pattern once it locks in for a while.

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Every single run on the GEFS keeps torching the Arctic regions and blocks up the entire hemispheric flow as we open January.  It's almost the complete opposite of what we saw from Nov-Dec.  Not going to be easy breaking that pattern once it locks in for a while.

 

I know, pretty amazing to see it flip so hard.

 

NW Canada just torches -

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GFS already picking up on it in its early stages...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122518/gfs_z500a_us_53.png

You know better not to look at the GFS op, ensembles are the way to go...so by Week 2 we start torching???

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That is not a warm look for the Midwest at 384 hours.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122518/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

 

It certainly isn't a cold look either relative to average.  At least it looks like it may be a bit of a SE ridge, so maybe turning active again, but cold lovers are really trying hard to spin that we're heading into a much colder than normal period I think.

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It certainly isn't a cold look either relative to average. At least it looks like it may be a bit of a SE ridge, so maybe turning active again, but cold lovers are really trying hard to spin that we're heading into a much colder than normal period I think.

It's a weak blocking signal over the NE if I am seeing it correctly. I don't see how that looks warm to anyone either especially after looking at the Euro as well.

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I really think we will be ok in mid January through February. We'll see though.

It might be earlier than that.  12z GEFS keep showing a screaming Pacific jet cutting underneath a monster NW NAMER ridge connecting across the Pole.  That is a beautiful 500mb pattern that suggests cold and storms for the lower 48.

 

I believe there is going to be a large system just after the New Year which fits the Bearing Sea Rule/LRC which should hit the 4 corners region and swing east.  There should be plenty cold in the pattern by then.  After the 5th, the pattern loads up with storm after storm.

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CFSv2 a little late for the party, but catching onto the Arctic blocking...

 

3 days ago...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20151224.201601.gif

 

 

Recent run...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20151226.201601.gif

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I've been following the battle between the EPS & GEFS over the last week trying to see which model had the right idea.  Gotta say, the GEFS picked up on the flip much earlier and saw the blocking over the top days ago.  The EPS finally caught onto the -AO pattern on tonights 00z run and it looks to lock in the -AO regime.  Once this baby locks, nature is going to get ready to rock!  

 

GEFS continue to show a coast to coast cold/stormy pattern....one that we have not seen in many years it seems.  You couldn't paint a better looking 500mb pattern than this to open up January.  After the 5th, that is when I believe we will see the STJ lock in for an onslaught of pacific storms targeting the southern part of the west coast.  Classic Split Flow pattern develops and with blocking in full control, I think there are going to be some powerhouse storm systems we will be tracking this month.

 

 

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We seem to be on a 45-50 day cycle on the LRC ( or at least that's what the professional mets that use the LRC are saying).  

 

If that is so, then the current storm (12/26-12/28) should correspond to the system on 11/10-11/12. That was 47 days ago.

 

Another very wet system (about 1.7 in. of rain IMBY) came through on 11/17-11/18.  Utilizing the LRC and very simple math shows that system should be coming through the Upper Midwest again around 1/3.  

 

Then the system that buried the northern suburbs of Chicago and southern Wisconsin on 11/21 should roll through sometime around 1/7.  

 

There should also be yet another couple of wet systems coming through in the next two weeks after that.  All we need is a little bit more cold air, but not so much that these systems get suppressed to far south.  Is that asking too much? 

 

Lots of potential for a lot of snow in this pattern to keep the snow geese (including me) on this forum happy.  Just need the raging El Nino to ease a little and for some of the other indices to turn in the right direction. Sure hope we're headed that way.

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We seem to be on a 45-50 day cycle on the LRC ( or at least that's what the professional mets that use the LRC are saying).  

 

If that is so, then the current storm (12/26-12/28) should correspond to the system on 11/10-11/12. That was 47 days ago.

 

Another very wet system (about 1.7 in. of rain IMBY) came through on 11/17-11/18.  Utilizing the LRC and very simple math shows that system should be coming through the Upper Midwest again around 1/3.  

 

Then the system that buried the northern suburbs of Chicago and southern Wisconsin on 11/21 should roll through sometime around 1/7.  

 

There should also be yet another couple of wet systems coming through in the next two weeks after that.  All we need is a little bit more cold air, but not so much that these systems get suppressed to far south.  Is that asking too much? 

 

Lots of potential for a lot of snow in this pattern to keep the snow geese (including me) on this forum happy.  Just need the raging El Nino to ease a little and for some of the other indices to turn in the right direction. Sure hope we're headed that way.

Absolutely and your right on target with the potential systems that are down the road.  All the major models are seeing a -AO/-NAO/-EPO during the first week of the month and beyond.  Lot's of this sub form is going to cash in on some snow events.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

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Can you say....Hello blocking???  I've never seen a Euro run like this in years...models are going to continue to act funky in the Day 7-14 range until they figure out how much blocking is evolving into the pattern.  The flow in the mid latitudes is going to come to a crawl if this much blocking does in fact develop.  

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Storm showing up Jan 10th on the GFS. Would be nice to see a clipper or something over perform before then.

This is one of the major systems in the 30-day cycle and its being picked up on the GEFS/EPS runs.  There will be some back 2 back major storms mid January

 

The pattern setting up this month reminds me of January 1978, one which had many blizzards that targeted the central states.  It's a long way out, but with all the blocking being indicated on the models, the storm which has greatest potential for a Great Lakes cutter would be around the 10th/11th.

 

You know the saying, "Great Minds Think Alike"...just watched JB's video and he just mentioned the great winters of '78 come to mind as the pattern evolves.  Gotta say, I've been getting these crazy synchronicities of late and hoping this is just the beginning of an amazing pattern going forward!

 

@ Jaster, remember in the Winter Outlook Thread someone posted a link that illustrated 18"+ historic snow storms???  A lot of those come to mind given the LRC pattern this year and now they are showing up on the ensembles.

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This is one of the major systems in the 30-day cycle and its being picked up on the GEFS/EPS runs. There will be some back 2 back major storms mid January

 

The pattern setting up this month reminds me of January 1978, one which had many blizzards that targeted the central states. It's a long way out, but with all the blocking being indicated on the models, the storm which has greatest potential for a Great Lakes cutter would be around the 10th/11th.

 

You know the saying, "Great Minds Think Alike"...just watched JB's video and he just mentioned the great winters of '78 come to mind as the pattern evolves. Gotta say, I've been getting these crazy synchronicities of late and hoping this is just the beginning of an amazing pattern going forward!

 

@ Jaster, remember in the Winter Outlook Thread someone posted a link that illustrated 18"+ historic snow storms??? A lot of those come to mind given the LRC pattern this year and now they are showing up on the ensembles.

Yeah. Something pretty epic is going to happen this month. January through February 1978 was the longest observed continuous snowcover in eastern Oklahoma history. 33 days. Possibly passed only by the winter of 1917-18 but I don't have daily reports for that. Hoping for a big storm. All signs point to it. Just gotta make it happen.

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