Jump to content

January 2016 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

Looks like mid Jan goes back above normal. Better hope we get something during the next two weeks or we might have to wait until end of Jan into Feb.

Both GEFS/EPS show a major arctic attack by mid month following what should be a major storm before that.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Will need the pna to.relax

 

Exactly, maybe we'll see some small powdery snow events with NW flow or cutters that track through the Eastern Lakes, but I'm not optimistic about more exciting cutters like this last one.  Poor timing to have the drop of the AO and NAO coincide with a PNA spike.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

oh boy, I don't know if I can handle this...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015122812/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png

Hope Santa brought you an extra hat and pair of gloves...your gonna need it...not a chance you will see a torch mid month with the entire Arctic torching and significant hemispheric blocking develops.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122818/gfs-ens_z500a_us_65.png

Expand this to show all of North America and take notice what the 500mb pattern looks up near the Arctic and then tell me that is a warm pattern...you forgot to post the temp anomalies...this is NOT a warm signal and if a model and it's members are painting this much Blue this Far out...its a tell tale signal of an arctic attack.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122818/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122818/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meanwhile...

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

Indeed, the ridge builds in NW NAMER...can't wait to break out of the Nov-Dec hemispheric pattern...ridges south of Hudson Bay are normally not warm...they entail Canadian HP's that are cold...kinda like sneaky HP's

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Indeed, the ridge builds in NW NAMER...can't wait to break out of the Nov-Dec hemispheric pattern...ridges south of Hudson Bay are normally not warm...they entail Canadian HP's that are cold...kinda like sneaky HP's

Yeah. They feed the cold underneath directly into storms that undercut the ridge also.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maxim, are you waiting for a run of your CFS to torch for January before you'll post it again or what? Awful lot of blue on it the last couple of days.

Oh, so now the CFS is accurate? I remember you bashing on it not too long ago saying how it was a useless model. Yes, it has shown more blue the past couple of runs. It did the same back in September for the Oct forecast, but obviously didn't get it right. Also, I'm still waiting for my cold December.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, so now the CFS is accurate? I remember you bashing on it not too long ago saying how it was a useless model. Yes, it has shown more blue the past couple of runs. It did the same back in September for the Oct forecast, but obviously didn't get it right. Also, I'm still waiting for my cold December.

Didn't say it was accurate. Just noting that it never gets posted when there's not a red paint bomb on it over the US.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is a copy and paste post from Don Sutherland on AMWX. Thought it was a good one and worth sharing here.

 

Long-Awaited Pattern Evolution Now Underway…

 

 

 

The long-awaited pattern regime change from a persistent super ridge centered over eastern North America is now underway. The SOI has now fallen to -23.25 after peaking at +30.72 on December 24. The rate of decline in the ongoing super El Niño has shown some indications of picking up. The most recent weekly changes were as follows:

 

 

 

Region 1+2: -0.3°C

 

Region 3: -0.2°C

 

Region 3.4: -0.2°C

 

Region 4: -0.1°C

 

 

 

In the larger scale, the kind of historic warmth that covered the eastern half of December during super El Niño events is typically unsustainable, not just in magnitude (otherwise that kind of warmth wouldn’t be such a rare event), but also in coverage. Even as the sample size is limited to two super El Niño cases (1877-78 and 1982-83), super warm winters for the entire December-February period are rare. Hence, with a degree of caution, one can argue that it is more likely than not that the warm anomalies should be expected to retreat to the northern tier (perhaps running from Montana or North Dakota to northern New England and northward) if the current ENSO event is reasonably similar to the two cases and the larger historical experience has relevance. The latest CFSv2 guidance shows just such an outcome.

 

 

 

 

 

The ensembles have persistently been forecasting a return of the PNA+, which is a favored state when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is positive. More recently, ensemble support for AO- and EPO- blocks has increased. The 12/28/2015 GFS ensembles now show strong agreement that the AO will be falling to negative values with a cluster of members supporting severely negative values during and after the first week in January. Even a few ensemble members support a negative NAO during the extended range.

 

 

 

 

 

At this point, the guidance strongly supports the idea that a pattern evolution is now underway. There will likely be a short lag before the impact of the blocking takes hold on the hemispheric pattern. Before then, there will likely be a transitional pattern that lasts 1-2 weeks. During that transitional pattern, eastern North America will likely be much cooler than during December, even as readings average somewhat above normal in some of the areas that saw extraordinary warmth during December. There may yet be opportunities for systems to cut to the Great Lakes, producing short periods of much warmer than normal readings in the East. The West will generally remain colder than normal, but toward the end of the transitional period, a warming trend may begin to appear in the Pacific Northwest and northwestern Canada on account of the PNA+.

 

 

 

What happens afterward will depend on whether the forecast blocking develops. The turnaround that occurred during winter 1965-66 when sustained blocking developed in late January could provide some insight.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, so now the CFS is accurate? I remember you bashing on it not too long ago saying how it was a useless model. Yes, it has shown more blue the past couple of runs. It did the same back in September for the Oct forecast, but obviously didn't get it right. Also, I'm still waiting for my cold December.

In the beginning of Sept it was certainly showing a colder Oct, but then started flipping warm...sorta what it is doing right now for the month of January.

 

Here were the last 10 runs in Sept for the Oct target period...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201510.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good read above, thanks for posting that Okwx. Seems like a clipper pattern and weak wave events for at least a week.

 

I'm hoping the juiced up southern branch will try to make a run to the north several times and mix with the cold air. 

 

GFS has the opening hours of January in the single digits around here.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is it too much to ask for a clipper train? Probably, given the pattern, but man I would be down for a couple smaller storms that add some snowpack and cold air.

 

I find it very strange to see a cutter on the GFS next week. Given the -AO, +PNA and neutral NAO by that time -I would expect an eastward track towards PA. There is a clipper on the 12th. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The system showing up between the 8th-10th correlates with the LRC and was the one that dumped the heavy snow Nov 20-21st.  It was a SLP that developed near KC and tracked E towards S IL/N OH.  Coincidentally, the 30-day cycle also correlates with this system.

 

I was doing some research and I was quite amazed how accurate both the 30-day and LRC cycle have been thus far this season.  It's ironic that the same dynamic systems which have shown up within the LRC have also have an exact match within the 30-day cycle period.  It's so fascinating to see how we can utilize both theories to predict storms in the future and know when the models are right or wrong.

 

For example, in the LRC, we have had several significant storms that have set up within the pattern.

 

1) LRC storm on Oct 27-28th Remnants of Hurricane Patricia that tracked from the southern gulf states towards the Lakes.  This storm also repeated in LRC cycle #2 on Dec 15th-16th (49-50days).

 

For the 30-day cycle we saw this system repeat 2 separate times on Nov 26-27 (Thanksgiving week) and again just recently Dec 26-29.

 

2) LRC storm on Nov 11th-13th Dynamic storm developed in N KS and tracked northeast thru IA/WI producing a severe weather outbreak in the south and a blizzard to the NW.

 

For the 30-day cycle, this system repeated on Dec 13-14 as a SLP developed near the TX Pan Handle and tracked thru KC/IA/WI.  This was a moisture laden storm with a perfect trowal signature but it was too warm for any significant widespread wintry precip except for TX Pan Handle and W KS.

 

3) LRC storm on Nov 16th was another Dynamic storm that carved out a deep trough in the 4 corners region as SLP formed in E CO and tracked thru KS/IA/MN.  This storm produced a Blizzard  in CO/KS/NE.

 

For the 30-day cycle we saw this system on Dec 15-16.  You can see that these systems repeat quicker within the 30-day cycle because obviously its a shorter period as the LRC is between 48-52 days.  The 30-day cycle had this storm as well on Nov 16-17.

 

It's becoming very evident that we will have many more systems to track over the coming months.  I counted at least 3-4 larger systems and 1-2 weaker ones within the pattern this month alone...not counting Clipper systems.  Assuming all of the above are correct, over the coming 2 months we may be tracking up to 8-12 storms that may be of significance!  Not a boring pattern to say the least.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The system showing up between the 8th-10th correlates with the LRC and was the one that dumped the heavy snow Nov 20-21st. It was a SLP that developed near KC and tracked E towards S IL/N OH. Coincidentally, the 30-day cycle also correlates with this system.

 

I was doing some research and I was quite amazed how accurate both the 30-day and LRC cycle have been thus far this season. It's ironic that the same dynamic systems which have shown up within the LRC have also have an exact match within the 30-day cycle period. It's so fascinating to see how we can utilize both theories to predict storms in the future and know when the models are right or wrong.

For example, in the LRC, we have had several significant storms that have set up within the pattern.

 

1) LRC storm on Oct 27-28th Remnants of Hurricane Patricia that tracked from the southern gulf states towards the Lakes. This storm also repeated in LRC cycle #2 on Dec 15th-16th (49-50days).

 

For the 30-day cycle we saw this system repeat 2 separate times on Nov 26-27 (Thanksgiving week) and again just recently Dec 26-29.

 

2) LRC storm on Nov 11th-13th Dynamic storm developed in N KS and tracked northeast thru IA/WI producing a severe weather in the south and blizzard to the NW.

 

For the 30-day cycle, this system repeated on Dec 13-14 as a SLP developed near the TX Pan Handle and tracked thru KC/IA/WI. This was a moisture laden storm with a perfect trowal signature but it was too warm for any significant widespread wintry precip except for TX Pan Handle and W KS.

 

3) LRC storm on Nov 16th was another Dynamic storm that carved out a deep trough in the 4 corners region as SLP formed in E CO and tracked thru KS/IA/MN. This storm produced a Blizzard in CO/KS/NE.

 

For the 30-day cycle we saw this system on Dec 15-16. You can see that these systems repeat quicker within the 30-day cycle because obviously its a shorter period as the LRC is between 48-52 days. The 30-day cycle had this storm as well on Nov 16-17.

 

It's becoming very evident that we will have many more systems to track over the coming months. I counted at least 3-4 larger systems and 1-2 weaker ones within the pattern this month alone...not counting Clipper systems. Assuming all of the above are correct, over the coming 2 months we may be tracking up to 8-12 storms that may be of significance! Not a boring pattern to say the least.

Only thing to add to all of these excellent points is to keep in mind that while the pattern verifies, keep an eye on the indices and it will help you to verify where the next storm will track. There are east and west shifts within the same pattern. I'm grateful for being given a better explanation of this cycle since joining here.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The system showing up between the 8th-10th correlates with the LRC and was the one that dumped the heavy snow Nov 20-21st.  It was a SLP that developed near KC and tracked E towards S IL/N OH.  Coincidentally, the 30-day cycle also correlates with this system.

 

I was doing some research and I was quite amazed how accurate both the 30-day and LRC cycle have been thus far this season.  It's ironic that the same dynamic systems which have shown up within the LRC have also have an exact match within the 30-day cycle period.  It's so fascinating to see how we can utilize both theories to predict storms in the future and know when the models are right or wrong.

For example, in the LRC, we have had several significant storms that have set up within the pattern.

 

1) LRC storm on Oct 27-28th Remnants of Hurricane Patricia that tracked from the southern gulf states towards the Lakes.  This storm also repeated in LRC cycle #2 on Dec 15th-16th (49-50days).

 

For the 30-day cycle we saw this system repeat 2 separate times on Nov 26-27 (Thanksgiving week) and again just recently Dec 26-29.

 

2) LRC storm on Nov 11th-13th Dynamic storm developed in N KS and tracked northeast thru IA/WI producing a severe weather in the south and blizzard to the NW.

 

For the 30-day cycle, this system repeated on Dec 13-14 as a SLP developed near the TX Pan Handle and tracked thru KC/IA/WI.  This was a moisture laden storm with a perfect trowal signature but it was too warm for any significant widespread wintry precip except for TX Pan Handle and W KS.

 

3) LRC storm on Nov 16th was another Dynamic storm that carved out a deep trough in the 4 corners region as SLP formed in E CO and tracked thru KS/IA/MN.  This storm produced a Blizzard  in CO/KS/NE.

 

For the 30-day cycle we saw this system on Dec 15-16.  You can see that these systems repeat quicker within the 30-day cycle because obviously its a shorter period as the LRC is between 48-52 days.  The 30-day cycle had this storm as well on Nov 16-17.

 

It's becoming very evident that we will have many more systems to track over the coming months.  I counted at least 3-4 larger systems and 1-2 weaker ones within the pattern this month alone...not counting Clipper systems.  Assuming all of the above are correct, over the coming 2 months we may be tracking up to 8-12 storms that may be of significance!  Not a boring pattern to say the least.

 

It's cool that we have a 30 day cycle during an el Niño winter. If all those storms come around with cold air in the Midwest, will stay above normal in the snowfall department.

  • Like 1

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...