January 2016 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

00z GFS has the right idea and showing the same Nov 20-21 storm with nearly an identical track...plenty of time to see how the details iron out but shows the similar pattern we had back then.  Strong HP to the north and a SLP developing near KC and tracking towards lower lakes.

[Tom]

Only thing to add to all of these excellent points is to keep in mind that while the pattern verifies, keep an eye on the indices and it will help you to verify where the next storm will track. There are east and west shifts within the same pattern. I'm grateful for being given a better explanation of this cycle since joining here.

True, and probably the most important index is more than likely the AO which has been positive when all these systems evolved.  It won't be the case this go around!

[winterfreak]

Looks like warm air keeps winning with these storms on the models in the long range. I know it's far out but it's happened with every storm so far this winter. The last storm took a perfect track imp but we got maybe two inches of slop. Until I see something produce imby I'll be rather pessimistic. Just don't think that we're in a good spot down here. Might be one of those years again. The lakes will probably be a different story. The weenie in me still lives on however.

[OKwx2k4]

Looks like warm air keeps winning with these storms on the models in the long range. I know it's far out but it's happened with every storm so far this winter. The last storm took a perfect track imp but we got maybe two inches of slop. Until I see something produce imby I'll be rather pessimistic. Just don't think that we're in a good spot down here. Might be one of those years again. The lakes will probably be a different story. The weenie in me still lives on however.

We just need that true Arklatex low with a little more suppression and a -AO feeding the cold out of the NE over the top. I think we'll see one in January and February. I know that it's pretty volatile but this pattern should pay us both off for our patience.

[winterfreak]

GFS looks awful in the long range right now. Doesn't really scream active pattern to me.

[Geos]

CMC is trying to set up a LES even around Lake Michigan; in IN, IL, and WI on Sunday night. Parameters don't look too bad currently.

Delta Ts would probably be at least 15°C. A large area of the lake would likely be above 40° still.

[Maxim]

horrible pattern for snow

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

[jaster220]

This is one of the major systems in the 30-day cycle and its being picked up on the GEFS/EPS runs.  There will be some back 2 back major storms mid January

 

The pattern setting up this month reminds me of January 1978, one which had many blizzards that targeted the central states.  It's a long way out, but with all the blocking being indicated on the models, the storm which has greatest potential for a Great Lakes cutter would be around the 10th/11th.

 

You know the saying, "Great Minds Think Alike"...just watched JB's video and he just mentioned the great winters of '78 come to mind as the pattern evolves.  Gotta say, I've been getting these crazy synchronicities of late and hoping this is just the beginning of an amazing pattern going forward!

 

@ Jaster, remember in the Winter Outlook Thread someone posted a link that illustrated 18"+ historic snow storms???  A lot of those come to mind given the LRC pattern this year and now they are showing up on the ensembles.

 

By that, you mean actual systems showing up? Got any attachments as visuals by any chance? 

 

Funny, I was just the other day thinking that I hadn't heard anybody mention the Cahir's Connection, and BAM! it's in JB's video from a day or 3 ago. I remember him discussing that about 12 or 13 yrs ago when I first found him online. Looks like it's going to pay dividends yet again.

[gosaints]

This pattern is not inspiring. Just glad we got something entertaining before hitting it

[Geos]

It does look like the next week will be pretty boring. Too bad the through isn't center right over the middle of the country - basically shift this month's old pattern further east.

[Andie]

Just curious, but are there any forum members being impacted by the incredible flooding in the Midwest ?

[OKwx2k4]

Just curious, but are there any forum members being impacted by the incredible flooding in the Midwest ?

Not really Midwest here but had an all time record flood here in eastern Oklahoma.

[Tom]

By that, you mean actual systems showing up? Got any attachments as visuals by any chance? 

 

Funny, I was just the other day thinking that I hadn't heard anybody mention the Cahir's Connection, and BAM! it's in JB's video from a day or 3 ago. I remember him discussing that about 12 or 13 yrs ago when I first found him online. Looks like it's going to pay dividends yet again.

If you have a Wx Bell subscription, click on the the Euro Precipitaion & MSLP CONUS tab and you can see that over the next 2 weeks its trending snowier and sagging farther south as we get deeper into January.

[Andie]

Not really Midwest here but had an all time record flood here in eastern Oklahoma.

Just wondering if any there are any Missouri members here. The waters are expected to peak tonight and tomorrow they said that the 1993 flood was the worst and a 500 yr. flood, but this one exceeds the current flood record. Nature seems to be out doing itself. I think with this kind of moisture, we'll see some very heavy snow totals.

[Tom]

Those who think that just because we have a short lull in the pattern is such a bad thing is not really all that terrible.  Even in the great winters of the late 70's there were lulls.  It's extremely difficult to have consistent storminess every single week for the entire winter.  Think about it this way...it's almost like nature wants to reload.  Cock it and then lets rock it!

 

Anyhow, this temporary lull is just that, temporary and is a direct part of the LRC that developed in the first part of November where ridging was in place but this time around there is more blocking developing over the arctic and the lower 48 won't torch as bad.  Instead, a split flow begins to develop over the first 5 days or so of this month and then the action starts right around the 6th-8th.  The jet starts to cut underneath and we're going to be in business once again for a good 2-3 week period.

 

I recall from past experience, when models started sniffing out immense blocking in the 5-15 day period, I saw some real funky runs and only when we got closer to the target period models began to shift the entire pattern into a colder/snowier regime.

 

@ Geo's, 18z GFS also showing perfect placement of the HP to the north to generate winds down the lake for a period to produce LES on Sun/Mon

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015123018/gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_19.png.

[Geos]

Those who think that just because we have a short lull in the pattern is such a bad thing is not really all that terrible.  Even in the great winters of the late 70's there were lulls.  It's extremely difficult to have consistent storminess every single week for the entire winter.  Think about it this way...it's almost like nature wants to reload.  Cock it and then lets rock it!

 

Anyhow, this temporary lull is just that, temporary and is a direct part of the LRC that developed in the first part of November where ridging was in place but this time around there is more blocking developing over the arctic and the lower 48 won't torch as bad.  Instead, a split flow begins to develop over the first 5 days or so of this month and then the action starts right around the 6th-8th.  The jet starts to cut underneath and we're going to be in business once again for a good 2-3 week period.

 

I recall from past experience, when models started sniffing out immense blocking in the 5-15 day period, I saw some real funky runs and only when we got closer to the target period models began to shift the entire pattern into a colder/snowier regime.

 

@ Geo's, 18z GFS also showing perfect placement of the HP to the north to generate winds down the lake for a period to produce LES on Sun/Mon

 

.

 

The only thing is that the mid levels are dry. The Canadian was on the moist side.

[westMJim]

Those who think that just because we have a short lull in the pattern is such a bad thing is not really all that terrible.  Even in the great winters of the late 70's there were lulls.  It's extremely difficult to have consistent storminess every single week for the entire winter.  Think about it this way...it's almost like nature wants to reload.  Cock it and then lets rock it!

 

Anyhow, this temporary lull is just that, temporary and is a direct part of the LRC that developed in the first part of November where ridging was in place but this time around there is more blocking developing over the arctic and the lower 48 won't torch as bad.  Instead, a split flow begins to develop over the first 5 days or so of this month and then the action starts right around the 6th-8th.  The jet starts to cut underneath and we're going to be in business once again for a good 2-3 week period.

 

I recall from past experience, when models started sniffing out immense blocking in the 5-15 day period, I saw some real funky runs and only when we got closer to the target period models began to shift the entire pattern into a colder/snowier regime.

 

@ Geo's, 18z GFS also showing perfect placement of the HP to the north to generate winds down the lake for a period to produce LES on Sun/Mon

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015123018/gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_19.png.

There looks to be a "backdoor" cold front coming over the weekend and there will be a NE wind.  I will be on the other side of Michigan (Bay City) from Sunday to Tuesday. I will let ever one know if they get any lake effect over there,

[ToastedRavs]

Shortwave moving through tonight...wasn't supposed to do much, if at all here in central Iowa, but been snowing for past few hours. May get a quarter inch if lucky. Not much, but it all adds up. Just a heads up for those to my east and northeast

[East Dubzz]

Yeah looks like a disturbance to my west that could produce some measure able snow, maybe a quarter inch like noted above. Hope this is the beginning of an active pattern, though it doesn't really look like it.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Yeah looks like a disturbance to my west that could produce some measure able snow, maybe a quarter inch like noted above. Hope this is the beginning of an active pattern, though it doesn't really look like it.

 

Things look somewhat interesting in the 7-10 day period on the GFS Ensembles, looks like some minor to moderate systems with a bit of a SE ridge, which may make sense as the PNA is projected to wander back towards neutral.

[East Dubzz]

I hope it brings some winter weather, getting a taste of some this week makes me want more.

 

Looks like I got a dusting from that very small disturbance last night.

[Tom]

00z Euro showing this back door cold front as a strong Hudson Bay HP (which was recognized) slides down into S Ontario and produces a period of LES in NE IL/N IN/SW MI Monday/Tues.

 

This is a pretty decent run on the Euro to produce LES on Mon/Tue....pretty cold 850's, strong NNE winds and prime wind direction.  Model is spitting out some decent qpf this far out that could fluff up to some advisory snows.  Hope it holds...LES events are real exciting to track and watch unfold.

[Tom]

Seems like the models are now starting to get a better handle on the coming first week of January and recognizing the -AO/NAO pattern as the Northern Hemisphere becomes blocked up.  Given the fact that the SOI has crashed from its earlier highs of +25 to now steeply negative...you can see why they have acted funky.

 

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 31 Dec 2016

Average for last 30 days -9.66

Average for last 90 days -11.15

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -29.53
 

[Tom]

Roughly 90-95% of Lake Michigan still running between 42-44F...any sneaky arctic HP can fire up the LES machine.  Hoping somebody cashes in Mon/Tue period.

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif

[GDR]

Jim flowers says that storm around the 10th or 11th will be a east coast hitter. So we better prepare ourselves

[westMJim]

It looks like here in Grand Rapids we will end the year and start the new year with around 2 to 4" of new snow. It may be more (or of course less) as the lake effect kicks in for the the overnight and early morning. 

[tim the weatherman]

_{i just want to give an update that the only reason I has not been on the weather fourms is because I have move to Momence  Illinois at good shepard manor and I don't have internet at the house the where I am at.}

[tim the weatherman]

Maxim, are you waiting for a run of your CFS to torch for January before you'll post it again or what? Awful lot of blue on it the last couple of days.

maxim has no clue on the maps to torch the nation you got to have the epo and the wpo to be in positive phase the ao to be in the positive phase and to have the nao to be in the same phase too.

[Tom]

_{i just want to give an update that the only reason I has not been on the weather fourms is because I have move to Momence  Illinois at good shepard manor and I don't have internet at the house the where I am at.}

Glad to see you back Tim!  Hope all is well and Happy New Year.

[Geos]

_{i just want to give an update that the only reason I has not been on the weather fourms is because I have move to Momence  Illinois at good shepard manor and I don't have internet at the house the where I am at.}

 

Happy New Year Tim! Glad you have a chance to stop in again. Hope to see more of you in 2016.

[Geos]

NAM hitting the LES potential pretty hard. Edit: Just realized that the Delta Ts would be around 20°C!

 

 

 

Looks to be on Monday morning now, in Michigan on Sunday.

 

Wind profile looks really good - stacked from the same direction. The dry layer is there, but it is higher up. I noticed the GFS has a weak LES signature also, but the lower resolution of the model, doesn't pick it up as easily.

 

 

18z NAM looks even better. 

Will start a thread sometime tomorrow as long as signal remains strong.

[Niko]

I'm getting lake effect snow today which certainly gave a nice look outside. January came in with a bang, that's for sure.

[Geos]

I'm getting lake effect snow today which certainly gave a nice look outside. January came in with a bang, that's for sure.

 

How much have you gotten?

 

LES is looking more likely here on Monday. It's a unusual treat here - at least in pure form.

[Snowlover76]

Taking pleasure in the cold returning and Iowa getting rocked.

[Niko]

How much have you gotten?

 

LES is looking more likely here on Monday. It's a unusual treat here - at least in pure form.

Not too much at all. I'd say around a 1/4 of an inch, but it looks beautiful outside even with this small amounts of snowfall. At least there is snow on the ground with this cold air around. Makes it more winterlike and January living up to its name.

 

BTW...Looking forward towards the Arctic air coming early next week. My highs probably do not get outta the teens for highs and lows in the single digits above 0.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Not too much at all. I'd say around a 1/4 of an inch, but it looks beautiful outside even with this small amounts of snowfall. At least there is snow on the ground with this cold air around. Makes it more winterlike and January living up to its name.

 

BTW...Looking forward towards the Arctic air coming early next week. My highs probably do not get outta the teens for highs and lows in the single digits above 0.

 

I don't think that will be the case.  Even with 6" on the ground here, the colder temps so far have been overdone.  Today was supposed to be low 20s, and it still almost hit 30.  If one thing has been consistent this winter, it seems predicted highs have been too low (except I remember Christmas week it was slightly cooler than predicted).

[Geos]

Hit 28° here today after a low of 17°. Forecasts have over did a lot of days in regards to sunshine. Been very cloudy lately. 

 

0z NAM holds the lake effect on this side of the lake for a good 12 hours.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Hit 28° here today after a low of 17°. Forecasts have over did a lot of days in regards to sunshine. Been very cloudy lately. 

 

0z NAM holds the lake effect on this side of the lake for a good 12 hours.

 

Yeah, it's been cloudier, but those clouds have kept the morning lows in check and hence we've still had positive departures the last few days.  I think today will finally feature our first negative departure in what seems like forever.

[East Dubzz]

So potential for more exciting times ahead in the 7+ day range? I hope so.

[Tom]

12z RGEM starting to get in range and picking up on some nice LES totals in SW MI.  Showing nice lake plume/squall that has a good chance of dumping some heavy snows.

 

You can easily fluff up these totals 2x or more...