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Winter 2015-16 Colder Air Mass Movement and Distribution Projections ..


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(This thread follows in line with one similar, covering the same idea where looking at this past fall. @)

 

.. Later on the 24th, earlier on the 25th of Dec., and following its general regress more northward since the Dec. 12th, main cold air mass looked as a whole, more fully across the board, east to west across the fuller Northern hemisphere, began to move and spread more southward. This with its being set to continue to do so daily more through to the 8th of January or so.  http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/#GOES

 

This general expansion of colder air south, with at the same time where looked at more longitudinally during this same period, main cold air's being set to continue its current slower movement more eastward for the next four or five days through to just before the beginning of the New Year, before beginning to step up its pace east gradually but steadily, daily more through the 9th of January. 

 

No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.

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Think so. ?
 
http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n3&inv=0&t=cur
http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n5&inv=0&t=cur
http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n8&inv=0&t=cur
 
.. The farthest I'll go where looking at the idea and venture, is to say things may be leaning toward .. a "little" better, where considering it. 

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With having been moving and spreading daily progressively more southward since the 25th of December, main colder air mass looked at more across the broad from east to west (fuller Northern Hemispheric scope), should begin to regress back more northward gradually and progressively, daily more, from this point forward through the 21st of January. 
 
This more latitudinal distribution of colder air mass looked at more broadly while at the same time where looked at more longitudinally, cold air being caused to, on the 9th of January, begin to move gradually but steadily more slowly east, through the 20th of January or so before beginning to move more assertively east again. 
 
No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.

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Although certainly expanding south at this point still more generallymore seasonallywhere looking at colder air's more inner-seasonal and regular both expansion south together with regression back more northward (Each element of this fuller cycle of colder air's more latitudinal distribution looked at more in particularly, playing out over a period of approximately two weeks.), … 
 
.. With broader cold's having been in general regression more northward daily since back on the 8th of January, beginning tomorrow, the 21st, colder air should start to move and spread daily more southward, with continuing to do so through the 4th of February. 
 
This, while looked at more longitudinally and with its having been moving relatively slowly eastward since the 11th of Jan., at this point main colder air has begun to move through a short period of more stepped up pace east; which should continue through the 23rd, before and with its slowly post the 23rd its pace picks up gradually but daily again through the 29th of Jan., before at that point beginning to move more assertively east again, with continuing to do through the 8th of February.
 
No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.

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So will this colder air mass bring some decent storms to Southern California by next month?

 

Changes are certainly better generally. 

 

.. If you look at the general patterning that would result (I'll say will.) with the combination of the both more latitudinal and longitudinal both movement and distribution of colder air that I've suggested above will occur over the next two weeks approximately @, first more basically, main moisturewhich has been more through to this point being allowed better (more.) access north generally, with cold's general regress / recession more, more latitudinallywill with what I've said above, be [being] confined, or limited, to mid-latitudes steadily lower, more and more day by by, from this point forward through the 4th of Feb. or so with cold's expansion south daily from this point through to that. 

 

This more inner-seasonal expansion of cold working synonymous with a more general, more seasonal movement and spread of cold south; both, looked at together working to limit main moisture's access more northward generally. 

 

.. Second, with additionally looking at what I've suggested main cold will do where considering its more longitudinally movement and pace east (more variable), .. With its more stepped up movement more eastward, for the next few days, main patterning should be more zonal. This with where looking at the period between the 24th and the 29th of Jan. more, where I've suggested main cold will being moving more slowly east, main patterning shifting to more meridional. And then more from the 30th of Jan. through the 8th of Feb., main cold's being caused to move steadily more assertively east, and so main patterning shifting to more zonal again.

 

.. And with this shifting of main patterning from more zonal to more meridional to zonal again, looked at together with what I've said above more about main cold spreading daily more south from this point through the 4th of Feb., I'm looking at a decent chance for some amount of better direction and steering of main moisture, working out to a better generation of precip., over different areas, further south.

 

What results main system wise where looking at the pattern shifting from more zonal or meridional that I've point to above, is that where patterning is more meridional, more room is created for main moisture's access north. This while where patterning is more zonal, less, and so with this a more extensive "stream" or of moisture's being directed more directly eastward / ENE.

 

.. Also check what I've said here above, set with what I have just today otherwise, within the thread topic "Spilt Flow", that I've initiated just recently. - http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1152-slipt-flow/?p=111604

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With its having been in a general expansion mode more latitudinally since back on the 21st of Jan, and with its being set to complete this over-all movement and spread more southward on the 4th of Feb., .. on the 5th of Feb. main colder air mass looked at more broadly (across the board east to west, fuller N. hem.), should begin to regress back more northward, daily more, through the Feb. 17th.
 
This while where looked at more longitudinally, and with its having begun to move more assertively east back on the 29th of Jan., main colder air being set to continue this more stepped up pace east through the 8th of Feb., before slowing daily, thereafter, steadily and progressively more through to Feb. 18th or so. 
 
No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.

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With its having been in general regress, or recession mode where looked at more latitudinally since back on the 5th, this while slowing its over-all pace and progress more eastward since back on the 8th of February, .. 
 
.. At this point, and with following close after a trough of colder air's having pushed south over the past few days, more with more over-all cold having been if only more near to its fuller regress north (Or, its basic consolidation limit.) while still slowing more, .. colder air looked at more broadly (Fuller N. hem. east to west.) should begin to expand (or move and spread.) daily more southward, with continuing to do so through the 3rd of March or so. 
 
This with where looked at more longitudinally, different main areas of colder air being caused to step up their main movement and pace more eastward, daily through the 22nd, with their then to slowing their pace east daily more through the remainder of February before beginning to move more assertively east again.

No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.

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With its having been moving and spreading daily, more latitudinally southward since back 18th of Feb., this while over the past few days begun to more assertively east more longitudinally, …

At this point main colder air has completed its current general (more inner-seasonal.) expansion south, and should begin to regress (or recess) back more northward, with main troughs of cold being caused to extend less and less far south daily, thru the 15th of March.

This while where looked at more longitudinally where looking more forward from this point main cold's being caused to continue its current more stepped up movement and pace more eastward through the 8th of Mar., before beginning to slow progressively more daily though to near the 20th.

No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.

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At this point main cold air mass looked at more broad scope, fuller N. hem., has begun to move and spread daily more southward. And with this should continue to do so through until the 30th of March or so.

 

This, with where looked at more longitudinally, main colder air being caused to continue its current generally slower movement and pace eastward through the 20th or so, before moving through a short period of more stepped up and assertive movement east from then through Mar. 23rd, with then slowing again, progressively more daily, also through the 30th of March.

 

No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.

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