January 2016 in the PNW

[Jesse]

Beautiful and snowy today for a New Years sledding trip to Old Man Pass. 3+ ft. of snow on the ground, crystal clear skies and temps around 25. Winter perfection.

 

I'm impressed with how cold the east wind has been getting in the PDX metro the last few days. Would be neat if they could pull off a sub-35 day before this episode ends.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting to see the CPC already has the NW pegged for below normal temps next winter.  I'm particularly interested in the shape of the area of the below normal temps.  Basically the northern tier from the Great Lakes westward.  Those situations are much better for snow in WA than when the cold anomaly area penetrates more deeply over the West.  I would suppose they might be looking at cases where a Nina followed a strong Nino and many other factors undoubtedly.

[Tyler Mode]

First sunrise of 2016!  It was amazing with the snow blowing off of Mt. Hood...

 

[snow_wizard]

Pdx is already down to freezing with a dew point of 18. Not bad at all. 

 

A lot of people fail to realize the freezing power 32 degree air has when it's very dry and has some velocity behind it.  The ground can freeze like iron with temps just a degree or two below freezing.   I've seen that effect many times where I live.

[snow_wizard]

First sunrise of 2016!  It was amazing with the snow blowing off of Mt. Hood...

 

 

Your pictures look flat out professional.  Do you ever sell any of them?

[Tyler Mode]

Yes sir...quite often.  Though, not even close to enough to make a living.  In fact, I spend way more on gear than I usually make in a year.

Your pictures look flat out professional.  Do you ever sell any of them?

[Gradient Keeper]

Crazy winds in east county/foothills. Estacada nearly 40mph sustained now

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Crazy winds in east county/foothills. Estacada nearly 40mph sustained now

It was actually breezy here earlier. Which almost never happens in offshore flow. Winds are calm now.

[bainbridgekid]

I'm impressed PDX was 32 degrees while the wind was gusting to 45 mph this morning.

 

33 degrees and gusting to 41 right now.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KPDX&num=72&raw=0

[Deweydog]

-4 in Omak. Coldest temp of the year.

[Jesse]

-4 in Omak. Coldest temp of the year.

Did you move back?

[Deweydog]

Did you move back?

Tempting... They have a Wal-Mart Supercenter now.

[MossMan]

Hmmmmm...portion of the latest NWS Seattle AFD

 

ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE SOUTH AND BY

SUNDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

QPF IN THE MODELS IS LOW TO BEGIN WITH...AND CONTINUED OFFSHORE

SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE

SOMETHING COULD REACH THE GROUND. DEW POINTS WILL BE WELL BELOW

FREEZING AND THOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE

ON THE COOL SIDE. THE UPSHOT IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION COULD BE

MIXED OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW...AT LEAST AT FIRST. NOTE THAT THE AVN MOS

ACTUALLY HAS FREEZING RAIN FOR MANY SITES...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM

EXACTLY RIGHT BUT DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURPRISE IN THIS

COLD DRY AIR MASS.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM suggests that PDX/western Gorge does not fully scour until next Saturday afternoon-evening now giving us snow initially Sunday, then transitioning to Sleet/ZR overnight Sunday, but then multiple Sleet/ZR events Tuesday, Thursday, next Saturday morning.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is notably colder for next week now.  Temps well below 40 every night and below freezing most nights with highs mostly in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

[snow_wizard]

00z GEM suggests that PDX/western Gorge does not fully scour until next Saturday afternoon-evening now giving us snow initially Sunday, then transitioning to Sleet/ZR overnight Sunday, but then multiple Sleet/ZR events Tuesday, Thursday, next Saturday morning.

 

Certainly looking like some cold air will be around for a good while at this point.  The cold actually re-tightens its grip late next week.

[MossMan]

Certainly looking like some cold air will be around for a good while at this point. The cold actually re-tightens its grip late next week.

Would be great to stay well below average right up until some possible Arctic fun later in the month. 25 crisp degrees currently here.

[snow_wizard]

I will be interested to see what the ULL does as far as observed temps around the region.  925mb temps are shown to drop below freezing tomorrow night on the latest WRF.  It may do nothing more than cool the higher elevations, but it could translate to colder at the surface also.  BTW that ULL is supposed to make a journey all the way to the North Slope of Alaska by mid week.  Pretty bizarre life for that feature.

[snow_wizard]

Would be great to stay well below average right up until some possible Arctic fun later in the month. 25 crisp degrees currently here.

 

I fully agree.  A cold January in any form would be very welcome.  Our inability to get cold in January the past 30 years has been beyond crazy.

[MossMan]

Hmmmmm...portion of the latest NWS Seattle AFD

 

ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE SOUTH AND BY

SUNDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

QPF IN THE MODELS IS LOW TO BEGIN WITH...AND CONTINUED OFFSHORE

SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE

SOMETHING COULD REACH THE GROUND. DEW POINTS WILL BE WELL BELOW

FREEZING AND THOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE

ON THE COOL SIDE. THE UPSHOT IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION COULD BE

MIXED OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW...AT LEAST AT FIRST. NOTE THAT THE AVN MOS

ACTUALLY HAS FREEZING RAIN FOR MANY SITES...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM

EXACTLY RIGHT BUT DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURPRISE IN THIS

COLD DRY AIR MASS.

Since the ground is now so cold, any snow that would fall would stick around, hopefully we will see some flakes Sunday!!

[BLI snowman]

I fully agree.  A cold January in any form would be very welcome.  Our inability to get cold in January the past 30 years has been beyond crazy.

 

The Portland area has seen accumulating snow in only one January so far this decade. Some snow would be much appreciated.

[TT-SEA]

Since the ground is now so cold, any snow that would fall would stick around, hopefully we will see some flakes Sunday!!

 

 

00Z ECMWF keeps the precip south of Seattle until late Monday now... and then even at 120 hours the ULL is still lingering to our north.    I think that actually turns the flow more onshore.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016010200!!chart.gif

[epiceast]

00Z ECMWF keeps the precip south of Seattle until late Monday now... and then even at 120 hours the ULL is still lingering to our north.    I think that actually turns the flow more onshore.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016010200!!chart.gif

 

This could be a good thing. Move the block 100 miles to the west and strengthen it a bit, and you could have the ULL absorbed in the bigger energy of the vortex to return as a glancing arctic flirtation 48 hours later.

[MossMan]

22 degrees currently.

[Jesse]

Pretty cool to see PDX in the upper 20s with east winds gusting to near 40mph this morning.

 

Highs today could be chilly.

[Gradient Keeper]

26.4, colder than I expected. We can go ahead and call this a modified blast(low-level). East wind is insane this morning 40-50mph gusts right now no question. It is raging much stronger than anything Friday. The gusts are so loud. I'm a little concerned about my fir and elm tree as well about power outages.

 

Cold air continues to deepen in and up over the Gorge.
Three Corner Rock at 3450' is now down to 11 degrees. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=TRKW1&table=1&banner=off

I also see east wind has developed again up at Larch Mt. 1150'
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=TR951&table=1&banner=off

 

6z GFS
Wow. Potential Snow/Ice Storm for PDX at day 10. Also accompanying this is a likely major downslope/east wind storm with a OTH-GEG downslope gradient of 24-25mb shown. A backdoor arctic blast moves into eastern Washington thanks to a mega-strong 1058mb arctic high dropping into Montana. Since this is the first run of any kind to show this we'll consider it an outlier, but let's keep an eye on any chance of this most exciting possibility.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010206/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_40.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Augspurger 2990' (northwest of Hood River) now down to 13

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=BPAUG&table=1&banner=off

Wanderer's Peak 4350' down to 9 degrees from 15 at 1 AM. It seems the cold air mass isn't only deepening, but it's spreading/expanding west-southwestward along the north Oregon Cascades.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=WPKO3&table=1&banner=off

[Gradient Keeper]

Mesoanalysis
6 AM: Columbia Basin cold pool has deepened the past 4 hours with 925mb -10c now. As low pressure develops and deepens off the southern Oregon Coast tonight-Sunday we could have high wind/damaging wind concerns to consider east of I-205. It depends on how much the Columbia Basin high and cold pool weakens.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/925mb/925mb_sf.gif?1451743585944

[Jesse]

25 degrees on Bull Mtn this morning in a fully mixed airmass with gusty winds at times.

 

Numbers as good as any modified arctic event out there.

[Gradient Keeper]

25 degrees on Bull Mtn this morning in a fully mixed airmass with gusty winds at times.

 

Numbers as good as any modified arctic event out there.

It is absolutely exactly like a modified blast, I agree.

[Gradient Keeper]

The winds are insane right now. I can hear the gusts building 1/4 mile away thinking is that a jet or.... then it hits. Just crazy strong edging towards high wind warning criteria I have no doubts about that.

[TT-SEA]

26 at SEA and calm... also calm here and still 29. Trajectory must have changed. FWIW... the GFS MOS shows the cold air eroding by Monday up here with almost 50 at SEA and dewpoints jumping to the mid 30s.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. 7 AM cold pool now down to -12c nearing that -13c forecast I gave a few days ago.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/925mb/925mb_sf.gif?1451747125864

[Kayla]

Pretty unlikely, there's a warming layer aloft with the precip and 925mb temps will definitely be above freezing. Sleet is maybe a "most exciting" case scenario here.

 

At what level do you see this "warming layer"? This airmass is cold up and down and the models have been a step behind since this event started.

 

12z 4km NAM said all snow on Sunday, interested to see the rest of the 12z model suite says.

[TT-SEA]

I think we are at the peak of the cold pool now.   Look at the incredible change from now until Monday morning on the new 12Z MM5 NAM:

 

Now:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/slp.03.0000.gif

 

 

Monday morning:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/slp.51.0000.gif

[Kayla]

25 degrees on Bull Mtn this morning in a fully mixed airmass with gusty winds at times.

 

Numbers as good as any modified arctic event out there.

 

22º dp 11º in the West Hills with very gusty winds. I've been getting wind chill values in the low single digits all night and this morning.

 

Be lucky to get out of the 20's today. Fair to say this is more than just "fake cold" at this point.

[crf450ish]

Wow. 7 AM cold pool now down to -12c nearing that -13c forecast I gave a few days ago.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/925mb/925mb_sf.gif?1451747125864

How much longer is it going to stay in place? Going to get colder? I can't seem to break into single digits here.....D**n fog and clouds keep rolling in at the wee hours of the morning and warming everything up a few degrees...

[Kayla]

I think we are at the peak of the cold pool now.   Look at the incredible change from now until Monday morning on the new 12Z MM5 NAM:

 

Now:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/slp.03.0000.gif

 

 

Monday morning:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/slp.51.0000.gif

 

No way that ends up verifying...especially for down here.

[TT-SEA]

How much longer is it going to stay in place? Going to get colder? I can't seem to break into single digits here.....D**n fog and clouds keep rolling in at the wee hours of the morning and warming everything up a few degrees...

 

 

See above post... the ULL drifiting north will effectively mix out the cold pool for the most part.

[TT-SEA]

No way that ends up verifying...especially for down here.

 

 

Well... it shows a massive erosion for the entire west.    It can't be totally wrong.     UT, ID, MT, CA, OR, and WA... all warming up significantly as the flow turns.   And that is a brand new run.