January 2016 in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 2 hours 38 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 28 at Silver falls already.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 30 at PDX

[Gradient Keeper]

28.0 now.... only 1.6 from my low temp... Insanity

[snow_wizard]

I think the big question for people down around Portland will be moisture.  It's pretty obvious there is enough cold air around for snow or sleet.  This will be a good test for the ECMWF WRF.  If all of the moisture it shows falls as snow the West Hills would get an inch or maybe slightly more and everywhere else would be in the 0.1 to 0.5 bracket.  Up here there will be very little moisture to work with.

[snow_wizard]

28.0 now.... only 1.6 from my low temp... Insanity

 

That is pretty impressive with wind.

[snow_wizard]

SEA put up a  -7 and Portland a -8 departure today.  Not bad at all.

[Tyler Mode]

I'm running 4 degrees colder (30 right now) than last night at this time, but the wind is still blowing 25-30 mph.

[luvssnow_spokane]

sitting at 28 here already... I'm scared

[Deweydog]

More nothingness in Omak.

[Deweydog]

Fun to do a little useless compare/contrast of 12-17/18-05 to tonight/tomorrow.  At 6pm on 12-17-05, PDX was sitting at 32/15 compared to the current 30/14.  

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like 00z NAM might be even wetter than 18z. I'm looking on my phone so I might be wrong, can someone verify?

[snow_wizard]

I'm running 4 degrees colder (30 right now) than last night at this time, but the wind is still blowing 25-30 mph.

 

I think we can safely say the ULL is helping our cause.  I have wind here now and the temps is also falling. It has gone from 39 to 35 in about an hour and a half.

[BLI snowman]

Fun to do a little useless compare/contrast of 12-17/18-05 to tonight/tomorrow.  At 6pm on 12-17-05, PDX was sitting at 32/15 compared to the current 30/14.  

 

I recall the forecast being for strictly zr that day. Airmass was surprisingly deep.

[Deweydog]

I recall the forecast being for strictly zr that day. Airmass was surprisingly deep.

 

Yeah... models and forecasters didn't give the backdoor air mass enough credit.  Funny thing is, that event was mainly snowy in the outflow areas and wasn't much to speak of in the cold air damming spots. Kind of a weirdo.  I remember it accompanied a mountain wave event for Clark County and kept precip to a minimum.  

[Gradient Keeper]

I believe I see 1-3" snow for PDX.... I don't have access to fancy though either

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am down to 26 now... I Have you beat Snow_wiz... You jealous?

[MossMan]

Down to 28 here. My frostpack is continuing to build! Still fluffy, not compacted and crusty!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Down to 28 here. My frostpack is continuing to build! Still fluffy, not compacted and crusty!

I am thinking of making a frostman tomorrow... 

[BLI snowman]

Yeah... models and forecasters didn't give the backdoor air mass enough credit.  Funny thing is, that event was mainly snowy in the outflow areas and wasn't much to speak of in the cold air damming spots. Kind of a weirdo.  I remember it accompanied a mountain wave event for Clark County and kept precip to a minimum.  

 

Seems like Scappoose did okay though

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/kspb/2005/12/18/DailyHistory.html

 

I had maybe an inch of fluff that quickly blew around. The mountain wave was definitely the most impressive part of that. Shouldn't be an issue tomorrow.

[Gradient Keeper]

MM5 looks to be way too warm tomorrow morning... Clearly handling the deep cold air wrong.

[Perturbed Member]

I can verify the 00z NAM is wet! Liquid precipitation amounts by 4am Monday! http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160103/00Z/f36/accqpfnw.pnghttp://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160103/00Z/f36/accqpfnw.png

 

Wow, actually looks pretty juicy. I'm liking that.

[Gradient Keeper]

2-4" looks like a distinct possibility...Looks like deformation between the ULL to the north and the other to the south is why moisture is increasing on past few runs...

[MikeInEverett]

And it looks like Portland gets the good stuff once again, while Seattle gets nothing. Ahhh man.

[BLI snowman]

00z NAM is definitely pretty nice. That's a pretty decent event. 

 

Trend is your friend. Very rare to have both the precip and upper level temp profile trend more favorably as we get closer to a prospective snow event but yet here we are.

[crf450ish]

What the he**?   http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=fruitland%2C+wa    .............

 

high of 38 and 39 on Tuesday and Wednesday? I beg to differ....

 

 

 

Meanwhile-------->  http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=47.9641&lon=-118.2265#.VoiK5IRlmHp

[crf450ish]

And it looks like Portland get the good stuff once again, while Seattle gets nothing. Ahhh man.

Thats the story of Seattles life.......I consider snowfall in Seattle a strange anomaly. 

[MossMan]

And it looks like Portland get the good stuff once again, while Seattle gets nothing. Ahhh man.

Been the norm for the past 3yrs now.

[James Jones]

Been the norm for the past 3yrs now.

I've seen this narrative from a few people that Portland has been doing better than Seattle in recent years, but aside from Feb 2014, it just isn't true. PDX got just dusting in December 2013, and recorded nothing at all in winters '14-'15 and '12-'13. The snow last weekend here only accumulated in the hills, most places had flakes in the air but no accumulation. Seattle did a lot better than Portland in November 2010, February 2011, and January 2012 also. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Went back to my cabin and snapped this pick thursday night about 5 miles from my place. Today we had a low of -10 and a high of 5 lol.

[Perturbed Member]

00z NAM is definitely pretty nice. That's a pretty decent event. 

 

Trend is your friend. Very rare to have both the precip and upper level temp profile trend more favorably as we get closer to a prospective snow event but yet here we are.

 

The increase in total QPF from 12z, 18z and 00z NAM is pretty dramatic.  GFS seems to be going the same direction.

 

Agree that we usually get screwed as the event gets this close but this time it is getting much better in all aspects. 

 

 

The NAM snowmap shows 2-3 inches of snow but about .40 inches QPF so it thinks some of it will be zr and sleet possibly. I think all snow is  quite possible.

[BLI snowman]

I've seen this narrative from a few people that Portland has been doing better than Seattle in recent years, but aside from Feb 2014, it just isn't true. PDX got just dusting in December 2013, and recorded nothing at all in winters '14-'15 and '12-'13. The snow last weekend here only accumulated in the hills, most places had flakes in the air but no accumulation. Seattle did a lot better than Portland in November 2010, February 2011, and January 2012 also. 

 

Eugene's done the best of anyone in the lowlands since January 2012, at least with regards to substantial snowstorms. They had 6"+ snowstorms in March 2012, December 2013, and February 2014. That's two more than anybody else.

[High Desert Mat]

Nwsnow, don't forget that alot will evaporate as well with that cold dry air screaming out of the gorge. Virga. Cold in central Oregon still, sitting at 12 in Redmond now. -3 from last night.

[Perturbed Member]

Nwsnow, don't forget that alot will evaporate as well with that cold dry air screaming out of the gorge. Virga. Cold in central Oregon still, sitting at 12 in Redmond now. -3 from last night.

Good point, my DP is 13F right now.

[Deweydog]

Useless comparison update!

 

7pm 12-17-05:  32/15

7pm 1-2-16:      29/14

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 25 at mi casa

[Deweydog]

Seems like Scappoose did okay though

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/kspb/2005/12/18/DailyHistory.html

 

I had maybe an inch of fluff that quickly blew around. The mountain wave was definitely the most impressive part of that. Shouldn't be an issue tomorrow.

 

Wow, didn't realize Scappoose did that well.  Kind of smells like they could again be in a pretty good spot.  

[Timmy]

Wow, didn't realize Scappoose did that well. Kind of smells like they could again be in a pretty good spot.

I can get behind that

[Kayla]

I recall the forecast being for strictly zr that day. Airmass was surprisingly deep.

 

But I thought it wasn't gonna snow???

[Deweydog]

I can get behind that

 

You'll do well.