January 2016 in the PNW

[BLI snowman]

The Canadian still shows that storm splitting anyways. After that most signs point to mild SW flow for awhile (rest of winter?).

 

Strong likelihood that we've seen the coldest weather of the winter, based on our ENSO climo which save for the rare February 1995 event is pretty D**n bleak after January 15. 

[Deweydog]

The Canadian still shows that storm splitting anyways. After that most signs point to mild SW flow for awhile (rest of winter?).

 

Strong likelihood that we've seen the coldest weather of the winter, based on our ENSO climo which save for the rare February 1995 event is pretty D**n bleak after January 15.

Lots Cheerio pee around this morning.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wow, just something to track objectively. No one is saying its a lock.

ditto

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There is a little hope in the ensembles

[TT-SEA]

Shot up to 45 here now with sunshine... maybe 50 today?     

 

Spring!   

[luvssnow_spokane]

There is a little hope in the ensembles

Keyword "little" ... But remember it does not matter how little it is just how you use it. 

[Snowman5678]

Ames Lake to Union Hill, wasn't even going to try West Snoqualmie knowing how icy the valley gets sometimes.

Makes better sense, Union is still pretty icy before you get to about 238th, certainly better than West Snoqualmie. Novelty was still super backed up when I went out like 30 minutes ago. People are probably trying to avoid 202. 

[TT-SEA]

Offshore flow in charge today in the Snoqualmie Valley...

 

http://s18.postimg.org/i7ggxtnqh/nb1.jpg

[crf450ish]

The roads around the area were absolutely horrible this morning. Carnation - Redmond, usually a half hour drive on 202, took 2 hours because of an accident. Ames Lake Rd (decided to go another way after waiting an hour to move a couple miles) was completely iced over. I spun out 4 separate times even after putting my SUV in 4wd. A co-worker of mine who lives in Duvall said she witnessed a truck flipping over when it skidded around a corner and went into the ditch, she stopped and luckily everyone was OK.

 

Just a complete mess.

 

It's the hills that screw everyone

[Snowman5678]

Offshore flow in charge today in the Snoqualmie Valley...

 

http://s18.postimg.org/i7ggxtnqh/nb1.jpg

Brilliant sunshine here this morning! Still some high clouds but still quite nice, i've got the blinds open.

[Jesse]

ditto

[Jesse]

Low of 30 on my 30th!

 

#firstdayofspring

 

#wintercancel

[Jesse]

Wow, just something to track objectively. No one is saying its a lock.

I appreciate your posts tracking events like these. Keep it up!

[Deweydog]

Low of 30 on my 30th!

 

#firstdayofspring

 

#wintercancel

Good god, you're old.

 

Weren't you like 12 when you started posting here?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good god, you're old.

 

Weren't you like 12 when you started posting here?

 

Welcome to the 30s. 

[Jesse]

Good god, you're old.

 

Weren't you like 12 when you started posting here?

Lol, it feels like it! Been a member here for almost ten years now.

[Deweydog]

Lol, it feels like it! Been here for almost ten years now.

Over a decade now for me. When I started I only had one kid, Dewey was barely two years old, Jim was ridiculously confident about the winter to come and Tim was mowing his lawn with kitchen shears.

 

So much has changed.

 

Happy birthday!

[High Desert Mat]

Happy birthday Jesse. I hit 40 this year so enjoy your younger years.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Low of 30 on my 30th!

 

#firstdayofspring

 

#wintercancel

Happy Birthday!!

[Jesse]

Over a decade now for me. When I started I only had one kid, Dewey was barely two years old, Jim was ridiculously confident about the winter to come and Tim was mowing his lawn with kitchen shears.

 

So much has changed.

 

Happy birthday!

Great post. Thanks buddy.

[TT-SEA]

47 at SEA at 11 a.m.

[BLI snowman]

Lots Cheerio pee around this morning.

 

We'll be incredibly lucky to see 33 degree rain the rest of the winter, let alone snow.

[BLI snowman]

Low of 30 on my 30th!

 

#firstdayofspring

 

#wintercancel

 

January 6 has been an unofficial first day of spring for awhile now, before mid winter's annual return in late February.

 

Happy birthday!

[stuffradio]

We'll be incredibly lucky to see 33 degree rain the rest of the winter, let alone snow.

The first thing I wish for when I wake up in the morning is, "I hope I get 33 degree rain today!"

[Deweydog]

49 at SeaTac!

[Front Ranger]

It wasn't a meridionally amplified block, though. Without the aforementioned -NAO block/NATL wave breaking, that winter would have been a zonal mess.

 

image.png

If you look at the time period that was cold for the PNW (late December - late January), it was definitely an amplified, full on -EPO/-PNA pattern for the most part.

 

Given the direction weather moves, I believe the Pacific pattern is much more important for the West than the NAO. In fact, the EPO has stronger correlation for cold for the country overall than either the AO or NAO.

[Snowman5678]

47 at SEA at 11 a.m.

Was just in Bellevue and it honestly feels like an early spring day. 

[Front Ranger]

Low of 30 on my 30th!

 

#firstdayofspring

 

#wintercancel

If only you were 20 today!

 

Happy DOB.

[luvssnow_spokane]

49 at SeaTac!

Finally!! 

[TT-SEA]

49 at SeaTac!

 

 

Going to break that magical 50 barrier!  

 

47 here.   

 

Time to plant the garden.

[Jesse]

Hitting 50 is pretty normal even in the middle of the winter.

 

The fact that it seems so warm is more testament to how consistently chilly the last few weeks have been.

[TT-SEA]

My lawn! Its been almost 3 weeks. 50 degrees here.

 

From a peak of almost 14 inches on the ground just 2 days ago to this now...

 

http://s23.postimg.org/5o776dnsr/2016_01_06_12_53_30.jpg

[Bryant]

It's a bummer that we have the arctic air building to our North, but will be neglected due to a strong jet and Aluetian low. Our best hope is a relaxation of the jet, allowing cold air to spill south a bit, but that doesn't look likely anytime soon with the MJO over the Pacific.

 

In a typical weak ENSO year, we could count on a jet retraction and Aluetian high (downstream trough over west) as the MJO reignited over the IO and shifted into the Maritime region in a couple weeks, but this year is very different. Strong stagnant ENSO conditions (convection/upward motion over the Pacific and suppression/downward motion over the Maritime) will cause the MJO to break down as it approaches the Maritime region, which would benefit the west. The break down is due to upper levels not supporting the convective / thunderstorm nature of the propagating wave.

 

All in all, everything is working against us right now, but I suppose you never know!

[Phil]

If you look at the time period that was cold for the PNW (late December - late January), it was definitely an amplified, full on -EPO/-PNA pattern for the most part.

 

Given the direction weather moves, I believe the Pacific pattern is much more important for the West than the NAO. In fact, the EPO has stronger correlation for cold for the country overall than either the AO or NAO.

Look at the meridional W/M flux integrals over the NPAC/Beaufort during that period. That ridge was flat-topped aloft via E-HEM +AAM. Without the NATL response, the result would have been something along the lines of 2014-15.

[Phil]

Wow, just wait until this propagates poleward Some major s**t about to go down through the next 7+ weeks.

[Front Ranger]

Look at the meridional W/M flux integrals over the NPAC/Beaufort during that period. That ridge was flat-topped aloft via E-HEM +AAM. Without the NATL response, the result would have been something along the lines of 2014-15.

 

Ok...it's just that you said there was a "lack of NPAC blocking" in 1968-69, which was "overcome" by the -NAO. In Dec/Jan, the time period that mattered for the PNW, there was substantial NPAC blocking, and it was easily the stronger signal.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

52 at SEA.

[epiceast]

Over a decade now for me. When I started I only had one kid, Dewey was barely two years old, Jim was ridiculously confident about the winter to come and Tim was mowing his lawn with kitchen shears.

 

So much has changed.

 

Happy birthday!

So that's why Tim hates the rain! Jim's way of hazing new forum members, forcing them to cut the grass on their lawn, rather than mow it.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wow, just wait until this propagates poleward Some major s**t about to go down through the next 7+ weeks.image.jpeg

Honestly if it is really means normal status quo for us I am not sure why you are posting it here???  Not sure what your point is???

[Phil]

Ok...it's just that you said there was a "lack of NPAC blocking" in 1968-69, which was "overcome" by the -NAO. In Dec/Jan, the time period that mattered for the PNW, there was substantial NPAC blocking, and it was easily the stronger signal.

 

RaXhkf3WmQ.png

Anomalous ridges are not necessarily true "blocks", or complete anticyclonic breaks independent of antecedent flow.

 

That NPAC ridge, by itself, would have done nothing for the PNW. The reason upstream blocking was able to sustain, as it did, was thanks to downstream feedback.

 

I hope that clears things up somewhat.