BLI snowman Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 The Canadian still shows that storm splitting anyways. After that most signs point to mild SW flow for awhile (rest of winter?). Strong likelihood that we've seen the coldest weather of the winter, based on our ENSO climo which save for the rare February 1995 event is pretty D**n bleak after January 15. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 The Canadian still shows that storm splitting anyways. After that most signs point to mild SW flow for awhile (rest of winter?). Strong likelihood that we've seen the coldest weather of the winter, based on our ENSO climo which save for the rare February 1995 event is pretty D**n bleak after January 15.Lots Cheerio pee around this morning. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wow, just something to track objectively. No one is saying its a lock.ditto Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 There is a little hope in the ensembles Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Shot up to 45 here now with sunshine... maybe 50 today? Spring! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 There is a little hope in the ensemblesKeyword "little" ... But remember it does not matter how little it is just how you use it. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Ames Lake to Union Hill, wasn't even going to try West Snoqualmie knowing how icy the valley gets sometimes.Makes better sense, Union is still pretty icy before you get to about 238th, certainly better than West Snoqualmie. Novelty was still super backed up when I went out like 30 minutes ago. People are probably trying to avoid 202. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Offshore flow in charge today in the Snoqualmie Valley... http://s18.postimg.org/i7ggxtnqh/nb1.jpg Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted January 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 The roads around the area were absolutely horrible this morning. Carnation - Redmond, usually a half hour drive on 202, took 2 hours because of an accident. Ames Lake Rd (decided to go another way after waiting an hour to move a couple miles) was completely iced over. I spun out 4 separate times even after putting my SUV in 4wd. A co-worker of mine who lives in Duvall said she witnessed a truck flipping over when it skidded around a corner and went into the ditch, she stopped and luckily everyone was OK. Just a complete mess. It's the hills that screw everyone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Offshore flow in charge today in the Snoqualmie Valley... http://s18.postimg.org/i7ggxtnqh/nb1.jpgBrilliant sunshine here this morning! Still some high clouds but still quite nice, i've got the blinds open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 ditto Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Low of 30 on my 30th! #firstdayofspring #wintercancel 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wow, just something to track objectively. No one is saying its a lock.I appreciate your posts tracking events like these. Keep it up! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Low of 30 on my 30th! #firstdayofspring #wintercancelGood god, you're old. Weren't you like 12 when you started posting here? 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Good god, you're old. Weren't you like 12 when you started posting here? Welcome to the 30s. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Good god, you're old. Weren't you like 12 when you started posting here?Lol, it feels like it! Been a member here for almost ten years now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Lol, it feels like it! Been here for almost ten years now.Over a decade now for me. When I started I only had one kid, Dewey was barely two years old, Jim was ridiculously confident about the winter to come and Tim was mowing his lawn with kitchen shears. So much has changed. Happy birthday! 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Happy birthday Jesse. I hit 40 this year so enjoy your younger years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Low of 30 on my 30th! #firstdayofspring #wintercancelHappy Birthday!! 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Over a decade now for me. When I started I only had one kid, Dewey was barely two years old, Jim was ridiculously confident about the winter to come and Tim was mowing his lawn with kitchen shears. So much has changed. Happy birthday!Great post. Thanks buddy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 47 at SEA at 11 a.m. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Lots Cheerio pee around this morning. We'll be incredibly lucky to see 33 degree rain the rest of the winter, let alone snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Low of 30 on my 30th! #firstdayofspring #wintercancel January 6 has been an unofficial first day of spring for awhile now, before mid winter's annual return in late February. Happy birthday! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 We'll be incredibly lucky to see 33 degree rain the rest of the winter, let alone snow.The first thing I wish for when I wake up in the morning is, "I hope I get 33 degree rain today!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 49 at SeaTac! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 It wasn't a meridionally amplified block, though. Without the aforementioned -NAO block/NATL wave breaking, that winter would have been a zonal mess. image.pngIf you look at the time period that was cold for the PNW (late December - late January), it was definitely an amplified, full on -EPO/-PNA pattern for the most part. Given the direction weather moves, I believe the Pacific pattern is much more important for the West than the NAO. In fact, the EPO has stronger correlation for cold for the country overall than either the AO or NAO. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 47 at SEA at 11 a.m.Was just in Bellevue and it honestly feels like an early spring day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Low of 30 on my 30th! #firstdayofspring #wintercancelIf only you were 20 today! Happy DOB. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 49 at SeaTac!Finally!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 49 at SeaTac! Going to break that magical 50 barrier! 47 here. Time to plant the garden. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hitting 50 is pretty normal even in the middle of the winter. The fact that it seems so warm is more testament to how consistently chilly the last few weeks have been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 My lawn! Its been almost 3 weeks. 50 degrees here. From a peak of almost 14 inches on the ground just 2 days ago to this now... http://s23.postimg.org/5o776dnsr/2016_01_06_12_53_30.jpg Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 It's a bummer that we have the arctic air building to our North, but will be neglected due to a strong jet and Aluetian low. Our best hope is a relaxation of the jet, allowing cold air to spill south a bit, but that doesn't look likely anytime soon with the MJO over the Pacific. In a typical weak ENSO year, we could count on a jet retraction and Aluetian high (downstream trough over west) as the MJO reignited over the IO and shifted into the Maritime region in a couple weeks, but this year is very different. Strong stagnant ENSO conditions (convection/upward motion over the Pacific and suppression/downward motion over the Maritime) will cause the MJO to break down as it approaches the Maritime region, which would benefit the west. The break down is due to upper levels not supporting the convective / thunderstorm nature of the propagating wave. All in all, everything is working against us right now, but I suppose you never know! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 If you look at the time period that was cold for the PNW (late December - late January), it was definitely an amplified, full on -EPO/-PNA pattern for the most part. Given the direction weather moves, I believe the Pacific pattern is much more important for the West than the NAO. In fact, the EPO has stronger correlation for cold for the country overall than either the AO or NAO.Look at the meridional W/M flux integrals over the NPAC/Beaufort during that period. That ridge was flat-topped aloft via E-HEM +AAM. Without the NATL response, the result would have been something along the lines of 2014-15. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wow, just wait until this propagates poleward Some major s**t about to go down through the next 7+ weeks. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Look at the meridional W/M flux integrals over the NPAC/Beaufort during that period. That ridge was flat-topped aloft via E-HEM +AAM. Without the NATL response, the result would have been something along the lines of 2014-15. Ok...it's just that you said there was a "lack of NPAC blocking" in 1968-69, which was "overcome" by the -NAO. In Dec/Jan, the time period that mattered for the PNW, there was substantial NPAC blocking, and it was easily the stronger signal. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 52 at SEA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Over a decade now for me. When I started I only had one kid, Dewey was barely two years old, Jim was ridiculously confident about the winter to come and Tim was mowing his lawn with kitchen shears. So much has changed. Happy birthday!So that's why Tim hates the rain! Jim's way of hazing new forum members, forcing them to cut the grass on their lawn, rather than mow it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wow, just wait until this propagates poleward Some major s**t about to go down through the next 7+ weeks.image.jpegHonestly if it is really means normal status quo for us I am not sure why you are posting it here??? Not sure what your point is??? 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Ok...it's just that you said there was a "lack of NPAC blocking" in 1968-69, which was "overcome" by the -NAO. In Dec/Jan, the time period that mattered for the PNW, there was substantial NPAC blocking, and it was easily the stronger signal. RaXhkf3WmQ.pngAnomalous ridges are not necessarily true "blocks", or complete anticyclonic breaks independent of antecedent flow. That NPAC ridge, by itself, would have done nothing for the PNW. The reason upstream blocking was able to sustain, as it did, was thanks to downstream feedback. I hope that clears things up somewhat. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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