TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 54 at UW in Seattle. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Honestly if it is really means normal status quo for us I am not sure why you are posting it here??? Not sure what your point is???What the heck are you talking about? There's nothing "status quo" about what is now ongoing. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Anomalous ridges are not necessarily true "blocks", or complete anticyclonic breaks independent of antecedent flow. That NPAC ridge, by itself, would have done nothing for the PNW. The reason upstream blocking was able to sustain, as it did, was thanks to downstream feedback. I hope that clears things up somewhat. Not going to argue this with you, but this seems like semantics to me. If that's not NPAC blocking, I don't know what is. And regardless of the NAO, that's the kind of blocking that usually delivers cold air to the PNW. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 What the heck are you talking about? There's nothing "status quo" about what is now ongoing. Status Quo for us means no snow. His point is unless the graphics indicate something different for us why did you post it. Most of us have no idea what the graphic means. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 2016 picked nits appear very similar to 2015 models. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 What the heck are you talking about? There's nothing "status quo" about what is now ongoing. Honestly if it is really means normal status quo for us I am not sure why you are posting it here??? Not sure what your point is???Status Quo for us means no snow. His point is unless the graphics indicate something different for us why did you post it. Most of us have no idea what the graphic means. I found it interesting. It's been a long time since we've had GLAAM graphics posted here with sensational text affixed to it. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 This sums up the coming pattern. Off the charts (literally) Arctic blocking, but Pacific pattern means it's no good for the West. -AO is overrated. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Still only 43 at PDX. They probably won't crack 45 today. Lots of patches/piles of snow still around in Vancouver. The heart of winter is a nice time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 What the heck are you talking about? There's nothing "status quo" about what is now ongoing.Let me clarify a wee bit more... You post some graphic that most us have no clue what it is for or how to read... then post some OMG statement with no explanation what your are OMG'ing about, for or where it will impact. If it is not something that impacts our area then why in the OMF'ingG are you posting it here? If there is a correlation to our area then an explanation is needed.. Please! ... OMG! 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Not going to argue this with you, but this seems like semantics to me. If that's not NPAC blocking, I don't know what is. And regardless of the NAO, that's the kind of blocking that usually delivers cold air to the PNW.Yes, what occurred was "blocking", but without the aforementioned downstream/NATL feedback, that block would not have occurred in the manner it did, and the end result would probably have been some sort of +PNA look. Does that make sense? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 This sums up the coming pattern. Off the charts (literally) Arctic blocking, but Pacific pattern means it's no good for the West. -AO is overrated.This is hogwash. The NAM/NPAC are coupled, in this case (and in most cases). Remember the bouts of NPAC blocking back in November/December, that ultimately failed to deliver? Yeah, you can thank the +PV/+NAM for that failure. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Let me clarify a wee bit more... You post some graphic that most us have no clue what it is for or how to read... then post some OMG statement with no explanation what your are OMG'ing about, for or where it will impact. If it is not something that impacts our area then why in the OMF'ingG are you posting it here? If there is a correlation to our area then an explanation is needed.. Please! ... OMG!I explained it all a page or two back. What exactly do you want me to elaborate on? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 This is hogwash. The NAM/NPAC are coupled, in this case (and in most cases). Remember the bouts of NPAC blocking back in November/December, that ultimately failed to deliver? Yeah, you can thank the +PV/+NAM for that failure.Nov/Dec featured weak/neutral -EPO, with neutral to occasionally moderate -PNA. It wasn't a great NPAC blocking pattern by any means. All I can say is that I've closely followed the patterns that deliver to the PNW/West over the past 20+ years, and the AO/NAO simply don't have a strong correlation to cold here. Much stronger correlation to EPO/PNA...which often do function independently of the Atlantic-side blocking. In general, we all want a blocky/slow NH pattern. That's what's most likely to deliver cold to the mid latitudes. And some of the best patterns have featured blocking across the indices AO/NAO/EPO. But a -EPO block is the one most important for the West (hard to get real cold here without upstream blocking). -AO means somewhere in the NH is getting cold, but not necessarily our part of the country. Current pattern: Exhibit A. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Nov/Dec featured weak/neutral -EPO, with neutral to occasionally moderate -PNA. It wasn't a great NPAC blocking pattern by any means.The GOA block during late November was actually 4mb stronger at its peak than the January 1969 block at its peak. All I can say is that I've closely followed the patterns that deliver to the PNW/West over the past 20+ years, and the AO/NAO simply don't have a strong correlation to cold here. Much stronger correlation to EPO/PNA...which often do function independently of the Atlantic-side blocking.That's true at face value, but you're ignoring the bigger picture in favor of isolating a single domain in an interconnected system. The NPAC and NAM are a single interactive entity. Whether or not the NAM works with/against the PNW in any given pattern is highly dependent on a slew of forcings and stochastic resonances that render the usage of the NAM sign alone useless. There are cases where a +NAM is beneficial/preferred in the PNW, and there are cases where a -NAM is beneficial/preferred. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted January 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 This Nino tied with the 97'-98' Nino per NWS spokesperson I just seen on KREM2 news here in Spoke... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 This Nino tied with the 97'-98' Nino per NWS spokesperson I just seen on KREM2 news here in Spoke...Crap, now they will be going into extra innings! As an analog January 98 had a mini blast with a few teens here and December 98 wasn't bad at all. I had 10" of snow the week before Christmas and a few single digit lows. The rest of the winter sucked though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Happy Birthday 00z GFS in 54 minutes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 7:05 PM Water Vapor Analysis12 hour Loop - http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+25I see some potential interesting developments on Water Vapor. Arctic air is trying to push back against the unusual southerly flow up into British Columbia/Alberta that has been in place the past several days. Analyzing a 12 hour loop the southern push of arctic air and drier, colder northerly flow is holding back the southerly flow and even suppressing it southward now approaching central BC/AB. Arctic air is very dense, heavy, and sometimes can shove the warmer air mass southward quite efficiently especially since it is waning now. This might be something to keep an eye on with the deeply suppressed jet.http://i.imgur.com/hFPG6ff.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primetime Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Wow, just wait until this propagates poleward Some major s**t about to go down through the next 7+ weeks.image.jpeg-NAM and STJ increase?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 7:05 PM Water Vapor Analysis12 hour Loop - http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+25I see some potential interesting developments on Water Vapor. Arctic air is trying to push back against the unusual southerly flow up into British Columbia/Alberta that has been in place the past several days. Analyzing a 12 hour loop the southern push of arctic air and drier, colder northerly flow is holding back the southerly flow and even suppressing it southward now approaching central BC/AB. Arctic air is very dense, heavy, and sometimes can shove the warmer air mass southward quite efficiently especially since it is waning now. This might be something to keep an eye on with the deeply suppressed jet.http://i.imgur.com/hFPG6ff.pngSure would be nice if we had some powerful computers to run statistical scenarios as to how air masses will evolve. That would definitely be a game changer! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Sure would be nice if we had some powerful computers to run statistical scenarios as to how air masses will evolve. That would definitely be a game changer!That would take all the fun out of it, though. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 That would take all the fun out of it, though.I distinctly remember my grandpa knowing if it was going to snow just by looking at the color of the clouds. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted January 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 My wife can smell the snow coming. I told her I think she's smelling the dew point... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Sure would be nice if we had some powerful computers to run statistical scenarios as to how air masses will evolve. That would definitely be a game changer!To be clear this isn't me forecasting an arctic blast or expecting it to be colder than modeled. I am merely doing real-time analysis which often times proves to be very useful and sometimes does show new developments that models do not latch onto. Anything is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 To be clear this isn't me forecasting an arctic blast or expecting it to be colder than modeled. I am merely doing real-time analysis which often times proves to be very useful and sometimes does show new developments that models do not latch onto. Anything is possible.Expect the unexpected! 00z is running. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Expect the unexpected! 00z is running. Split flow? Some ridging? Weak system on Saturday? So many possibilities! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Split flow? Some ridging? Weak system on Saturday? So many possibilities! Just 3 days ago the system Saturday looked good for some snow, so quick to disappear. Stupid models. #elninosaysbyebyetowinterweather Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Might have to get the spoon out..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted January 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Pretty sweet graphic here depicting the Split flow and storm train riding into Cali... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 7:05 PM Water Vapor Analysis12 hour Loop - http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+25I see some potential interesting developments on Water Vapor. Arctic air is trying to push back against the unusual southerly flow up into British Columbia/Alberta that has been in place the past several days. Analyzing a 12 hour loop the southern push of arctic air and drier, colder northerly flow is holding back the southerly flow and even suppressing it southward now approaching central BC/AB. Arctic air is very dense, heavy, and sometimes can shove the warmer air mass southward quite efficiently especially since it is waning now. This might be something to keep an eye on with the deeply suppressed jet.http://i.imgur.com/hFPG6ff.pngNah, if you look at the loop it definitely looks like arctic air pushing more ESE than S. Looks progged to move east to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 What an ugly run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Nah, if you look at the loop it definitely looks like arctic air pushing more ESE than S. Looks progged to move east to me.Oh yeah, the major brunt of it will be east of the Rockies into the northern plains. Grasping at straws for a nice cold shot into eastern Washington or at least a decent cold pool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Oh yeah, the major brunt of it will be east of the Rockies into the northern plains. Grasping at straws for a nice cold shot into eastern Washington or at least a decent cold pool.Run a nice hot bath, wait 12 hours, then get in. Cold pool. I didn't even need the GFS or the GLAAM to figure that out. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 One thing is for sure... Not a single sign of a nino pattern taking over any time soon. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Pattern reset in time for a February 2014 redux Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 One thing is for sure... Not a single sign of a nino pattern taking over any time soon.or nina Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 One thing is for sure... Not a single sign of a nino pattern taking over any time soon. Some probably can't detect your sarcasm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 My lawn! Its been almost 3 weeks. 50 degrees here. From a peak of almost 14 inches on the ground just 2 days ago to this now... http://s23.postimg.org/5o776dnsr/2016_01_06_12_53_30.jpgThat melted quick. Looks about the same as my front yard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Crap, now they will be going into extra innings! As an analog January 98 had a mini blast with a few teens here and December 98 wasn't bad at all. I had 10" of snow the week before Christmas and a few single digit lows. The rest of the winter sucked though.Already seeing signs in the models of the Aleutian Ridge setting up for December 2016. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016010100/cansips_z500a_namer_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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