January 2016 in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Short story, Amazing the power a place can have when it comes to your health and how you feel. My wife has stage 4 breast cancer and when i take her there she feels better and is very happy to just sit there and enjoy the view. It was our dream since we were both 16 years old to have a little place in the mountains.  This is her view.

[stuffradio]

The trolling and gardening subforum is really coming along!

We truly learn from the best. By the way, come tell the Mosquito that bit me just now that it's not Spring yet.

[TT-SEA]

Short story, Amazing the power a place can have when it comes to your health and how you feel. My wife has stage 4 breast cancer and when i take her there she feels better and is very happy to just sit there and enjoy the view. It was our dream since we were both 16 years old to have a little place in the mountains.  This is her view.

 

So glad that she can find peace there.

[Phil]

These posts are becoming frequent in our WA gardening group on facebook from people all over the western lowlands. Signs of spring all around now with the warmer weather.

 

 

This happens all over the country during the winter, actually. Not a sign of warmth/spring as much as it is the increase in sun angle in conjunction with the available liquid water content at/under the root system, in most cases.

 

Our daffodils have been coming up over the last few weeks, and were up to 4" tall when the blizzard hit. This despite temperatures frequently dropping into the single digit/teens for weeks beforehand, and an absence of substantial precipitation. Basically, the increasing sun angle has been radiatively warming the soil/root systems.

[Phil]

Short story, Amazing the power a place can have when it comes to your health and how you feel. My wife has stage 4 breast cancer and when i take her there she feels better and is very happy to just sit there and enjoy the view. It was our dream since we were both 16 years old to have a little place in the mountains. This is her view.

Very sorry to hear that. I pray all goes well.

[TT-SEA]

This happens all over the country during the winter, actually. Not a sign of warmth/spring as much as it is the increase in sun angle in conjunction with the available liquid water content at/under the root system, in most cases.

 

Our daffodils have been coming up over the last few weeks, and were up to 4" tall when the blizzard hit. This despite temperatures frequently dropping into the single digit/teens for weeks beforehand, and an absence of substantial precipitation. Basically, the increasing sun angle has been radiatively warming the soil/root systems.

 

 

Of course.   Signs of spring coming.

 

Also... it does not happen in the Midwest and probably not in the NE.   And probably nowhere in the Intermountain West.    Its just too cold.   You have to wait until April in Minnesota most years to see any signs of life. 

 

Its likely limited to the West Coast, the southern tier of the US, and the mid-Atlantic.

[Phil]

Vancouver, BC is literally right at the Pacific ocean. You can't get any more beside the ocean unless you put buildings in the ocean.

Very much like New York and Boston, respectively.

 

It's quite the thought experiment to picture a scenario where the global wind-fields reverse. Equatorial westerlies, mid latitude easterlies, etc. In that case, we'd probably take your place as a dreary marine climate, and you'd probably end up with a cold desert climate given the mountains to your west.

[stuffradio]

Very much like New York and Boston, respectively.

 

It's quite the thought experiment to picture a scenario where the global wind-fields reverse. Equatorial westerlies, mid latitude easterlies, etc. In that case, we'd probably take your place as a dreary marine climate, and you'd probably end up with a cold desert climate given the mountains to your west.

But, would I get snow?

[Phil]

Of course. Signs of spring coming.

 

Also... it does not happen in the Midwest and probably not in the NE. And probably nowhere in the Intermountain West. Its just too cold. You have to wait until April in Minnesota most years to see any signs of life.

 

Its likely limited to the West Coast, the southern tier of the US, and the mid-Atlantic.

It's been happening in the NE, too. I have family up close to Albany, NY, and they frequently have growth show up by late January.

 

This year, stuff was actually blooming on Christmas Eve.

[stuffradio]

Short story, Amazing the power a place can have when it comes to your health and how you feel. My wife has stage 4 breast cancer and when i take her there she feels better and is very happy to just sit there and enjoy the view. It was our dream since we were both 16 years old to have a little place in the mountains. This is her view.

I pray for the best that she recovers

[TT-SEA]

It's been happening in the NE, too. I have family up close to Albany, NY, and they frequently have growth show up by late January.

 

This year, stuff was actually blooming on Christmas Eve.

 

 

It was a very warm fall and far from normal there.   But I doubt there is much blooming in places where there is snow on the ground most of the winter or temperatures stay below freezing during the day.

[Deweydog]

Well better get blooming for real very soon. Only three weeks until Valentine's Day!

[seattleweatherguy]

Het Phil yoy agree with Andersons interpretation of the ecwf?

[snow_wizard]

Can somebody make him stop?

 

This isn't a gardening forum and it serves no purpose other than trolling.

 

There are probably lots of non-native plants you can buy at Costco that bloom in late January every year if it isn't snowing. We live in a mild winter climate for our latitude. Is this news?

 

Can't wait until the non native plants meets a vicious January cold spell.  They have happened here you know.

[Phil]

It was a very warm fall and far from normal there. But I doubt there is much blooming in places where there is snow on the ground most of the winter or temperatures stay below freezing during the day.

Okay, but average highs over the majority of the lower-48 are above freezing during most/all of the cold season.

 

I wasn't implying cold-season plant activity occurs everywhere, but it's fairly common in most areas, even under typical/cool temperature anomalies. It happens here even during cold winters, and it's usually a properly of radiative heating via an increasing solar vector, rather than anomalous warmth.

[snow_wizard]

Het Phil yoy agree with Andersons interpretation of the ecwf?

 

Great spelling!

[snow_wizard]

Short story, Amazing the power a place can have when it comes to your health and how you feel. My wife has stage 4 breast cancer and when i take her there she feels better and is very happy to just sit there and enjoy the view. It was our dream since we were both 16 years old to have a little place in the mountains.  This is her view.

 

Touching story. 

 

My mother in law survived very serious breast cancer many years ago and she is still fine.

[snow_wizard]

You can grow hardy palms in Switzerland and parts of southern Norway. So gross.

 

Yeah...I think they look foreign here.  Simply don't belong.  Talk about people trying to pretend we live in a warmer climate than we do.

[TT-SEA]

Can't wait until the non native plants meets a vicious January cold spell.  They have happened here you know.

 

 Native plants and trees die as well in extreme weather.   Reference: summer of 2015.  

 

Palm trees can survive down to 0 degrees.    Palm trees are not going to die in our climate.    

[snow_wizard]

Lars Larson just said the blizzard closed the door on the global warming debate.

 

Seriously? That is totally absurd whichever side of the debate you are on.

[Phil]

Het Phil yoy agree with Andersons interpretation of the ecwf?

Do I agree with his interpretation, or the model itself?

 

Generally speaking, I agree with the depicted pattern progression on the weeklies. Beginning in early/mid February, there will be a retrogression of the NEPAC/GOA vortex westward towards the Aleutians, and a firm -NAM will redevelop as the both the Eurasian and North-Pacific mass/momentum transfer conduits open in response to the aforementioned circulatory shift(s), initiated by the typical seasonal/intraseasonal forcing progression(s).

 

The end-result should be a warmer/drier pattern over the W/NW portion of the country beginning during the second week of February, with troughing/cold anomalies setting up over the E/SE half of the country. This will probably persist into March.

[Gradient Keeper]

Short story, Amazing the power a place can have when it comes to your health and how you feel. My wife has stage 4 breast cancer and when i take her there she feels better and is very happy to just sit there and enjoy the view. It was our dream since we were both 16 years old to have a little place in the mountains.  This is her view.

It looks like an amazing place, and you're right about that, how it affects the mindset, outlook, calms the soul, everything. Sorry to hear about your wife. Thoughts and prayers with you all during this time.

[TT-SEA]

Seriously? That is totally absurd whichever side of the debate you are on.

 

 

No doubt.

 

If anything... the case could be made for more frequent and larger snowstorms  in the NE with a warming climate.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice improvements on 12z/18z runs today. 18z GFS Ensemble Mean temp down to nearly -7c for PDX now.

 

[Model Countdown] 1/25/16

00z GFS in 1 hour 30 minutes

00z GEM in 2 hours 44 minutes

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 53 minutes

[Phil]

No doubt.

 

If anything... the case could be made for more frequent and larger snowstorms in the NE with a warming climate.

I'm not convinced the recent increase in prolific blizzards can be directly attributabed to climate change. There are a number of more plausible, demonstrable mechanisms which are probably responsible for that, plus numerous anomalous developments elsewhere.

 

However, I do believe the E/NE portion of the country is descending into an era of anomalously cold/snowy winters, generally speaking.

[weatherfan2012]

If anything as we start to desend into a very deep solar min over the next few years nation wild severe winters would start to be strongly favered.a topic that likey will be getting very interesting in a few years time.

[Deweydog]

Seriously? That is totally absurd whichever side of the debate you are on.

It was pretty embarrassing to listen to. In his defense it was initiated by a listener email but he espoused it. Pretty typical right wing rabble rouser stuff.

[snow_wizard]

I'm not convinced the recent increase in prolific blizzards can be directly attributabed to climate change. There are a number of more plausible, demonstrable mechanisms which are probably responsible for that, plus numerous anomalous developments elsewhere.

 

However, I do believe the E/NE portion of the country is descending into an era of anomalously cold/snowy winters, generally speaking.

 

Descending into?  It seems like the region has already been there for a while.  The West is the place that's probably due for more anomalous cold.  The entire NW quarter of the country has torched in January for decades now.

[snow_wizard]

If anything as we start to desend into a very deep solar min over the next few years nation wild severe winters would start to be strongly favered.a topic that likey will be getting very interesting in a few years time.

 

It is interesting to note that in the NW the last two rounds of fairly decent winters were during solar minimum. 1995-96, 1996-97, and then 2006-07 through 2010-11.  Those two periods far exceeded anything around them.  You could even argue Jan 2012 might have been a holdover since the last min was so long and deep.  I think there is a lot riding on this solar minimum we are entering.

[TT-SEA]

Descending into?  It seems like the region has already been there for a while.  The West is the place that's probably due for more anomalous cold.  The entire NW quarter of the country has torched in January for decades now.

 

And you just are reporting this now?    

 

Actually... maybe its some obscure response to a warming Earth.    It might not be explainable with the parameters we monitor and it might not be going away.   There is no historical guide.   

[Deweydog]

It is interesting to note that in the NW the last two rounds of fairly decent winters were during solar minimum. 1995-96, 1996-97, and then 2006-07 through 2010-11. Those two periods far exceeded anything around them. You could even argue Jan 2012 might have been a holdover since the last min was so long and deep. I think there is a lot riding on this solar minimum we are entering.

Seems pretty flimsy.

[TT-SEA]

1976-77 was right at the bottom of a solar cycle.

 

1949-50, 1968-69, and 1990 were at the peak of solar cycles and had intense arctic outbreaks.

[westcoastexpat]

Short story, Amazing the power a place can have when it comes to your health and how you feel. My wife has stage 4 breast cancer and when i take her there she feels better and is very happy to just sit there and enjoy the view. It was our dream since we were both 16 years old to have a little place in the mountains.  This is her view.

 

You are both so fortunate to have such a wonderful getaway. It must feel so rewarding to see your dream come true. Cheers to more happy days in the mountains!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If only there was arctic air to tap into...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1976-77 was right at the bottom of a solar cycle.

 

1949-50, 1968-69, and 1990 were at the peak of solar cycles and had intense arctic outbreaks.

 

Massive truth bomb...Wow....

[Deweydog]

Could be a nice-ish weekend.

[HighlandExperience]

1976-77 was right at the bottom of a solar cycle.

 

1949-50, 1968-69, and 1990 were at the peak of solar cycles and had intense arctic outbreaks.

 

 

The only thing that can save us right now is a maunder minimum leading into a little ice age type climate. 

[MossMan]

Could be a nice-ish weekend.

Convergence snow nice? Or sunny and crisp nice?

[Deweydog]

Convergence snow nice? Or sunny and crisp nice?

Might dry out nicely.

[MossMan]

Might dry out nicely.

I would rather have snow.