January 2016 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Portland skated by with a +9 on the day.   

 

Eugene put them to shame with a +14.  

[Dave]

Portland skated by with a +9 on the day.   

 

Eugene put them to shame with a +14.  

It got to 68 at my location.  What a pleasant surprise.  One of the warmest January days I've ever felt and likely one of the warmest January days ever in Eugene.  The airport site is often a bit cooler than the rest of town and only made it to 65.

[Jesse]

It got to 68 at my location. What a pleasant surprise. One of the warmest January days I've ever felt and likely one of the warmest January days ever in Eugene. The airport site is often a bit cooler than the rest of town and only made it to 65.

Yuck.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like we get back to the traditional El Nino split flow pattern next week... hopefully less rain.    Although Monday and today were really enjoyable.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_192_precip_p03.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_216_precip_p03.gif

[snow_wizard]

Looks like it's going to be a snowless January in Juneau...first time in 74 years. 

 

 

1942...Pretty interesting the early 1940s has been a top analog to what we've been seeing the past couple of years.  1942-43 was a strong Nina with a cold / snowy January here.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS depicts a major snowstorm in extreme southern BC later in the run.  Nice to see some kind of potential sticking around for a while.

 

In the near term a prolonged period with chilly temps and low snow levels appears to be in the cards this weekend and next week.  Decent potential for a low to track south with a chilly air mass in place.  Something to watch at least.  At any rate about as good as you could hope for in early Feb with a strong Nino.

[snow_wizard]

Yuck.

 

At least this is a case where the warmth will lead to some anomalous cold.  Pretty typical to have a spike before a 140 to 150 block (or in this case semi block).

[TT-SEA]

At least this is a case where the warmth will lead to some anomalous cold.  Pretty typical to have a spike before a 140 to 150 block (or in this case semi block).

 

 

Not really.    00Z GFS MOS has highs in the upper 40s with lows in the upper 30s for the weekend and into next week.

 

Maybe just slightly below normal... then warming up again.    

[TT-SEA]

29 in Fairbanks right now... average high is 1 and the average low is -17.

[snow_wizard]

Now that I think about it the match to 1942 is quite profound.  That year also featured a cold snap the first third of January with a little bit of lowland snow.  This could be the second time for the Western lowlands to have a bit of snow in January when Juneau has none.  I have mentioned the parallel to the early 1940s a number of times over the past couple of years.  Looks like this month furthered the match.  Now we just need the Nina to appear later this year.

[TT-SEA]

Now that I think about it the match to 1942 is quite profound.  That year also featured a cold snap the first third of January with a little bit of lowland snow.  This could be the second time for the Western lowlands to have a bit of snow in January when Juneau has none.  I have mentioned the parallel to the early 1940s a number of times over the past couple of years.  Looks like this month furthered the match.  Now we just need the Nina to appear later this year.

 

 

1942 and 1943 both had nice summer weather with endless warm weather into the fall... and mild winters overall.     January of 1943 was quite snowy at Palmer.  

 

1943-44 was a great winter.      There was a crazy number of dry days over the entire winter.    Many days in the 40s with lows in the 20s which implies clear skies as well.   That has to be one of the most pleasant winters ever here... sort of like 2013-14.       Only 3 inches of snow the entire winter at Palmer.   Near the bottom of a solar cycle as well.

[BLI snowman]

A cold and snowy week in January of 1943. Looking at the Snoqualmie Falls data that month... 21 days in the 40s and 3 days in the 50s. And 7 cold days.

 

Summer went until almost the end of October in 1942. Then a winter that was almost entirely mild except for one week.

 

1942 was a great summer after it got going. And surprisingly... the summer of 1943 was also very nice despite being a Nina year.

January 1943 was a solidly cold month with aa massive snowstorm. And another wet snowstorm in early December. Don't need to play dumb and pretend that that's a bad winter by our standards.

[TT-SEA]

January 1943 was a solidly cold month with aa massive snowstorm. And another wet snowstorm in early December. Don't need to play dumb and pretend that that's a bad winter by our standards.

 

 

Yeah... that week in January 1943 was snowy and cold for sure.    

 

1943-44 was drastically different in terms of being much drier with many more below freezing lows stretching from November to March.

 

I would be very happy with a transition like that again.   The only difference is we get a solid week of cold and snow for everyone next January.   I had 3 weeks of that this winter already.

[ShawniganLake]

January 1943 was a solidly cold month with aa massive snowstorm. And another wet snowstorm in early December. Don't need to play dumb and pretend that that's a bad winter by our standards.

I was gonna say. That January came in at 30.3F for the month here. I would guess colder than any January in the last 30+ years. Close to 50" of snow for the winter, of course well above average.

[Gradient Keeper]

Real gusty up in the Bellingham area. They just had a 56mph gust

[GHweatherChris]

Staying overnight in Sequim for work, the rainshadow from the Olympics is impressive so far, not one drop of rain yet.

[snow_wizard]

I was gonna say. That January came in at 30.3F for the month here. I would guess colder than any January in the last 30+ years. Close to 50" of snow for the winter, of course well above average.

 

Actually colder than any January since 1969 in this area.  I also remember that Clearbrook had over 100 lows of 32 or below that winter.

[TT-SEA]

I was gonna say. That January came in at 30.3F for the month here. I would guess colder than any January in the last 30+ years. Close to 50" of snow for the winter, of course well above average.

 

 

Snoqualmie Falls had 21 days in the 40s and 3 days in the 50 so it was not just cold all month.

 

The average was 32.55 but it was one week that made the month really cold.   February of 1943 (NINA) was much warmer than February of 1942 (NINO).  

[GHweatherChris]

Snoqualmie Falls had 21 days in the 40s and 3 days in the 50 so it was not just cold all month.

 

The average was 32.55 but it was one week that made the month really cold.   February of 1943 (NINA) was much warmer than February of 1942 (NINO).  

No one said the whole month was cold Tim, cmon.

[High Desert Mat]

Geez Tim, put a cork in it. Its really old and everyone sees it. Jim posted so better be the first to refute it. Get out much do ya?

[Jesse]

Geez Tim, put a cork in it. Its really old and everyone sees it. Jim posted so better be the first to refute it. Get out much do ya?

It's making the forum borderline unreadable these days. Everybody be sure to report his posts if you want to see something get done.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah... that week in January 1943 was snowy and cold for sure.

 

But all this talk about how different next winter will be... and yet 1941-42 and 1942-43 were about the same for 95% of the winter.

 

And 1942 and 1943 both had great summers and warmth way into the fall.

 

1943-44 was drastically different in terms of being much drier with many more below freezing lows stretching from November to March.

 

I would be very happy with a transition like that again. The only difference is we get a solid week of cold and snow for everyone next January. I had 3 weeks of that this winter already.

1942-43 had a rare combination of major cold and very heavy snowfall. And a couple weeks or more of snowcover for most people. Pretty obvious why it would be seen as a nice winter.

[ShawniganLake]

Honestly... the only difference I can find with that Nina developing in 1942 was one week of arctic air in January. 1942 and 1943 both had nice summer weather with endless warm weather into the fall... and mild winters overall. January of 1943 was quite snowy at Palmer.

 

1943-44 was a great winter. There was a crazy number of dry days over the entire winter. Many days in the 40s with lows in the 20s which implies clear skies as well. That has to be one of the most pleasant winters ever here... sort of like 2013-14. Only 3 inches of snow the entire winter at Palmer. Near the bottom of a solar cycle as well.

43-44 was a neutral winter, so not sure what you are getting at with the low solar comment.

[Gradient Keeper]

....El Niño Update....
Update prepared by:
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
January 25 2016

 

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

El Niño conditions are present.*
Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer 2016.*

 

Last weeks SST Departures:
Niño 4: 1.3ºC
Niño 3.4: 2.6ºC
Niño 3: 2.8ºC
Niño 1+2: 1.4ºC

 

**The new weekly SST Departures:
Niño 4: 1.4ºC
Niño 3.4: 2.5ºC
Niño 3: 2.5ºC
Niño 1+2: 1.4ºC
*OND(October-November-December) ONI index: 2.3ºC

[TT-SEA]

No one said the whole month was cold Tim, cmon.

 

Understood. 

 

I had not looked at 1942 and 1943 yet but it might be a good match.    

[snow_wizard]

1942-43 had a rare combination of major cold and very heavy snowfall. And a couple weeks or more of snowcover for most people. Pretty obvious why it would be seen as a nice winter.

 

I would take a Jan 1943 redux any day.  Some pretty wild temperature acrobatics that month along with the bitter cold and snow on the ground for 2 weeks.

[Deweydog]

Snoqualmie Falls had 21 days in the 40s and 3 days in the 50 so it was not just cold all month.

 

The average was 32.55 but it was one week that made the month really cold. February of 1943 (NINA) was much warmer than February of 1942 (NINO).

Spaz.

[snow_wizard]

It's making the forum borderline unreadable these days. Everybody be sure to report his posts if you want to see something get done.

 

I am literally in disbelief that I can't post without him jumping on it in a matter of minutes.

[TT-SEA]

43-44 was a neutral winter, so not sure what you are getting at with the low solar comment.

 

1942 we crashed from Nino to Nina and also headed into the bottom of a solar cycle.

 

Seems to be the same thing in 2016.  

 

I am looking ahead at the next couple winters after 1941-42 which is approximately 2015-16 in this scenario.

[GHweatherChris]

1942 we crashed from Nino to Nina and also headed into the bottom of a solar cycle.

 

Seems to be the same thing in 2016.  

 

I am looking ahead at the next couple winters after 1941-42 which is approximately 2015-16 in this scenario.

 

Very simple.   Everyone is so laser focused on one week.   I am looking at the entire 2 year period.

You are not convincing anyone of your innocence.

 

The conversation is about a one month period but you are looking beyond that to bring up warm anoms, as usual.

[Jesse]

I am literally in disbelief that I can't post without him jumping on it in a matter of minutes.

Mentally unstable behavior.

[TT-SEA]

I am literally in disbelief that I can't post without him jumping on it in a matter of minutes.

 

 

I was agreeing with you.   1942 is a good match.   And would lend credibility to the theory that there will be a top tier event next winter.   

 

I am just looking at the entire winters of 1942-43 and 1943-44.     Its interesting to me since there are so many similarities to this year.

[GHweatherChris]

I am literally in disbelief that I can't post without him jumping on it in a matter of minutes.

Most of the time it is less than one minute.

[snow_wizard]

Snoqualmie Falls had 21 days in the 40s and 3 days in the 50 so it was not just cold all month.

 

The average was 32.55 but it was one week that made the month really cold.   February of 1943 (NINA) was much warmer than February of 1942 (NINO).  

 

Another way to spin it is 6 highs of freezing or below and 26 lows of freezing or below and half the month with snow on the ground.  It appears the 50+ days were very dynamic with them sandwiched between 2 cold snaps and a strong Arctic blast bringing the warmth to an end.

[GHweatherChris]

Another way to spin it is 6 highs of freezing or below and 26 lows of freezing or below and half the month with snow on the ground.  It appears the 50+ days were very dynamic with them sandwiched between 2 cold snaps and a strong Arctic blast bringing the warmth to an end.

You are not allowed to spin it that way Jim, it got warm at some point, that is all that matters.    

[TT-SEA]

Another way to spin it is 6 highs of freezing or below and 26 lows of freezing or below and half the month with snow on the ground.  It appears the 50+ days were very dynamic with them sandwiched between 2 cold snaps and a strong Arctic blast bringing the warmth to an end.

 

Yep... it was a great week of cold and snow.     Getting below freezing at night should not be noteworthy in January.   I guess it has been lately.  

[GHweatherChris]

Yep... it was a great week of cold and snow.     Getting below freezing at night should not be noteworthy in January.   I guess it has been lately.  

Do you have control of the remote control in your house too, at all times?

[ShawniganLake]

Another way to spin it is 6 highs of freezing or below and 26 lows of freezing or below and half the month with snow on the ground. It appears the 50+ days were very dynamic with them sandwiched between 2 cold snaps and a strong Arctic blast bringing the warmth to an end.

People were probably skating on the lake here that January. Hasn't happened in over 20 years. Would love to see that again.

[stuffradio]

Yuck.

I thought we weren't supposed to comment our displeasure for what other people like? I didn't do that to your comment about the rain earlier.

[Jesse]

Hey guys, January 1950 was VERY warm compared to what is usually seen in Minnesota that month. Thoughts?