January 2016 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Western WA's inversion i.e. "fake cold" season definitely includes late October and early February. Did you forget the prolonged fog episode in October 2013?

I will have to defer to Dewey on this one... I guess under extreme warm upper levels the season can extend on either side. The ridge is shown during the second week of February.

[Jesse]

A lot of this depends on what kind of inversion you are talking about. We can see marine inversions in the summer, even during periods of VERY high sun angle. Think Summer 2010.

[TT-SEA]

A lot of this depends on what kind of inversion you are talking about. We can see marine inversions in the summer, even during periods of VERY high sun angle. Think Summer 2010.

Offshore flow is more likely during February and March. The summer inversion is a totally different animal.

[Jesse]

Offshore flow is more likely during February and March. The summer dynamic is a totally different animal.

 

My point is it's less black and white than people are making it out to be. There aren't strict cutoff dates beyond which inversions are/are not possible. It's more of a sliding scale of probability. And the pattern obviously plays a large role in maximizing or minimizing things.

[TT-SEA]

My point is it's less black and white than people are making it out to be. There aren't strict cutoff dates beyond which inversions are/are not possible. It's more of a sliding scale of probability. And the pattern obviously plays a large role in maximizing or minimizing things.

 

Of course.

[HighlandExperience]

OK... love that area and the view up there is insane!

Yup super nice and clean, but it's getting more crowded. View from here is lovely. Love the density

[Deweydog]

I will have to defer to Dewey on this one... I guess under extreme warm upper levels the season can extend on either side. The ridge is shown during the second week of February.

Inversions can happen any time of year as it's a very stable pattern. Increased solar radiation helps stir things up. It's not rocket science and also not a coincidence a setup like December 2005, 1985, etc. don't happen by late January or so. Even following a strong advection event like Feb. 1989, I doubt PDX pulls off a 39/9 day 3-4 weeks earlier.

 

I just don't get why this is even discussed. It's as constant as constant can be.

[TT-SEA]

Nice day... sun at times and cumulus clouds but dry.  

[TT-SEA]

Inversions can happen any time of year as it's a very stable pattern. Increased solar radiation helps stir things up. It's not rocket science and also not a coincidence a setup like December 2005, 1985, etc. don't happen by late January or so. Even following a strong advection event like Feb. 1989, I doubt PDX pulls off a 39/9 day 3-4 weeks earlier.

 

I just don't get why this is even discussed. It's as constant as constant can be.

 

 

I think its being discussed now because there is a strong ridge shown in the models.   My guess is that this same ridge would be very foggy with fake cold in December but probably sunny for most places during the second week of February.    That is pretty much obvious to you I am sure.

[Deweydog]

I think its being discussed now because there is a strong ridge shown in the models. My guess is that this same ridge would be very foggy with fake cold in December but probably sunny for most places during the second week of February. That is pretty much obvious to you I am sure.

It's just getting to the point now where it's noticeably less of a default phenomenon. It's not the end of the world.

[TT-SEA]

It's just getting to the point now where it's noticeably less of a default phenomenon. It's not the end of the world.

 

 

Epiceast brought it up when discussing the ridge shown in the models.     I just said its not likely to be a foggy ridge for most people.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of gfs ensembles are similar to the euro at day 8

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heavy snow reported near Vernonia at about 800 ft

[TT-SEA]

Feels like January out there!

[Timmy]

Heavy snow reported near Vernonia at about 800 ft

same shower is about to hit me. Looks to be breaking up a bit, but could also be that the radar is just to my west

[epiceast]

Had a little graupel shower that covered some grassy areas but mostly melted now.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like today's run of the 18Z GFS is not going to even bother teasing us.

[HighlandExperience]

Snow wizard may find this interesting. Okinawa (the extreme sw part of Japan) just had their first snowfall in recorded history.

 

This is pretty significant considering that meteorological records go back pretty far in Japan.

[Jesse]

37 degrees with a heavy shower in Wilsonville.

 

Windshield splat test confirmed.

[Jesse]

Snow wizard may find this interesting. Okinawa (the extreme sw part of Japan) just had their first snowfall in recorded history.

 

This is pretty significant considering that meteorological records go back pretty far in Japan.

Cool stat.

 

Checked the Euro and there is a huge arctic airmass over Eastern Asia right now.

[TT-SEA]

If The Northeast and Mid Atlantic can pull in sub freezing days, significant snowfall in marginal temps, and extended snow cover, all with angles approaching 40°, then sun angle isn't an issue in the PacNW unless you're an inversion enthusiast.

 

 

 

Sun angle right now is sufficient to swing the temperature at the 925mb level from below freezing each night to above freezing during the afternoon hours with our current air mass.   In December the sun angle would not be able to accomplish this swing even with a marginal air mass.   

[TT-SEA]

37 degrees with a heavy shower in Wilsonville.

 

Windshield splat test confirmed.

 

Nice.

[stuffradio]

I'm really liking how the models are showing the Maritime Continent MJO wave taking it's sweet time to move out during Feb. Should be time to really damage the Nino as SOI values have already risen quite a bit.

You're not kidding. The last time I saw it it was at -28. The SOI needs to be 8+ for (90 days?) to be a Nina.

[TT-SEA]

You're not kidding. The last time I saw it it was at -28. The SOI needs to be 8+ for (90 days?) to be a Nina.

 

I don't think the SOI actually defines a Nino or Nina.

 

The SOI can be totally out of sync at times... the ultimate determination of the ENSO state is the SSTA in the ENSO region.

[snow_wizard]

Amazing how much the snow they had in NYC was like what happened here in Dec 1996.  They went from 22" to 0" snow depth in 5 days.  I assume some of the places that really got nailed still have decent snow depths though.  Pretty interesting how the only worthwhile event they had this winter makes up for all of the torching they have suffered through.

[snow_wizard]

You're not kidding. The last time I saw it it was at -28. The SOI needs to be 8+ for (90 days?) to be a Nina.

 

The latest daily value was +2.  Huge improvement for sure.  That last negative SOI spike really set the demise of the Nino back from what I would like to see.

[TT-SEA]

The latest daily value was +2.  Huge improvement for sure.  That last negative SOI spike really set the demise of the Nino back from what I would like to see.

 

 

Phil says another big Nino favorable burst is coming in March as well.   It might be slow to die this year.

[Tyler Mode]

Intense rainbow not long ago over Battle Ground, Washington! I haven't seen one against a blue sky like that before either!

 

 

 

 

[Phil]

Amazing how much the snow they had in NYC was like what happened here in Dec 1996. They went from 22" to 0" snow depth in 5 days. I assume some of the places that really got nailed still have decent snow depths though. Pretty interesting how the only worthwhile event they had this winter makes up for all of the torching they have suffered through.

Snow depth here is still 14-17", though it's basically solid ice after the rainstorm/flash freeze a few days ago. You can walk on it without falling through.

 

We've never had a major blizzard stand alone here, so statistically it's almost a lock that we'll score again. In fact, we've never had less than 11" of additional snowfall in years featuring a major blizzard, and average an additional 18-24" in such years.

[Phil]

Phil says another big Nino favorable burst is coming in March as well. It might be slow to die this year.

Yeah, intraseasonal forcing will recouple with ENSO from the last week in February, and beyond into March.

 

Weekly blips in the SOI are meaningless, to me.

[snow_wizard]

Snow wizard may find this interesting. Okinawa (the extreme sw part of Japan) just had their first snowfall in recorded history.

 

This is pretty significant considering that meteorological records go back pretty far in Japan.

 

A sign of extreme amplification.  That is always a plus for us in the long run.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, intraseasonal forcing will recouple with ENSO from the last week in February, and beyond into March.

 

Weekly blips in the SOI are meaningless, to me.

 

We might be screwed for this Nino to break down this year.  The subsurface anoms are WAY warmer than they were in 1983 and 1998 at this time.  I am concerned.

 

On the other hand the atmosphere was Ninoish in those years until much later on so who knows for sure.

[Phil]

We might be screwed for this Nino to break down this year. The subsurface anoms are WAY warmer than they were in 1983 and 1998 at this time. I am concerned.

 

On the other hand the atmosphere was Ninoish in those years until much later on so who knows for sure.

Barring a failed pendulum cycle (1986-1988, for example), I wouldn't be worried about another potent El Niño next fall/winter. I could easily see a warm-neutral outcome, but am still thinking La Niña.

[Phil]

Snow wizard may find this interesting. Okinawa (the extreme sw part of Japan) just had their first snowfall in recorded history.

 

This is pretty significant considering that meteorological records go back pretty far in Japan.

Globular Worming.

[High Desert Mat]

Globular Worming.

Globular worming? Are you serious? I've heard alot of things but that isn't one of them. Not poking the bear but some of things you post on this blog sound really confusing. Like talking to Mr. Mann, except I know you know what you're talking about so to speak.

[TT-SEA]

Snow wizard may find this interesting. Okinawa (the extreme sw part of Japan) just had their first snowfall in recorded history.

 

This is pretty significant considering that meteorological records go back pretty far in Japan.

 

When did this happen? 

 

http://s11.postimg.org/6cojtcqar/japan.jpg

[GHweatherChris]

When did this happen?

 

http://s11.postimg.org/6cojtcqar/japan.jpg

Last weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Last weekend.

 

 

Ahhhh.

[pscz1140]

Snow wizard may find this interesting. Okinawa (the extreme sw part of Japan) just had their first snowfall in recorded history.

 

This is pretty significant considering that meteorological records go back pretty far in Japan.

 

At looks like it's snowed there before, at least on the hills. Would be nice to see some actual snowfall data.

 

"Rare though snow is, it is not unprecedented: occasional plunges of Arctic air produced snow in Okinawa in 1952, 1964 and 1977."

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/01/siberian-cold-reaches-southeast-asia-160125091421039.html

[Parksvillewx]

When did this happen? 

 

http://s11.postimg.org/6cojtcqar/japan.jpg

 

 

Google is a powerful tool.

 

http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/heavy-snow-hits-western-central-japan-okinawa-feels-chill-too