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January 2016 in the PNW


crf450ish

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The first half of the month will be dominated by constant ridging, and maybe even the first 3 weeks. I highly doubt we'll have any retrogression in the final 10 days of the month, which will leave it up to February to satiate our winter needs. I'm betting February 7-14th will be our Arctic Window.

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The first half of the month will be dominated by constant ridging, and maybe even the first 3 weeks. I highly doubt we'll have any retrogression in the final 10 days of the month, which will leave it up to February to satiate our winter needs. I'm betting February 7-14th will be our Arctic Window.

 

The MJO says we will have a shot in the second half of Jan.  In the meantime there appear to be a number of minor cold snap opportunities.  The next 4 days or so will probably be the coldest until later in the month though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I hope the PV breaks up and dips far south into us and the columbia river freezes over. Lake Washington will freeze over as well. 

 

It will be interesting to see if this climate is still capable of producing a winter that can freeze the larger lakes or not.  With a much more favorable solar outlook in the coming years / decades I wouldn't rule it out.  As some of us have mentioned many times on this forum...the climate you see in the NW now and what the climate was prior to 1975 are two entirely different things.

 

There is some evidence that a long term oscillation exists where the eastern and western sides of the continent take turns having the coldest winters (in relation to normal).  If so we could have that helping us in the coming years also.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It will be interesting to see if this climate is still capable of producing a winter that can freeze the larger lakes or not.  With a much more favorable solar outlook in the coming years / decades I wouldn't rule it out.  As some of us have mentioned many times on this forum...the climate you see in the NW now and what the climate was prior to 1975 are two entirely different things.

 

There is some evidence that a long term oscillation exists where the eastern and western sides of the continent take turns having the coldest winters (in relation to normal).  If so we could have that helping us in the coming years also.

YES! There has to be some sort of identifiable relation between the solar cycles and the weather (here in the PNW...). Not in a general sense, I mean in a more exact pin-pointable sense. Do you have any references that talk about how long it takes us to see the residual effects of a solar minimum?

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*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*
*.*.*. HAPPY NEW YEAR .*.*.*

 

I want to wish a Happy New Year to you and yours. Make 2016 the best year ever

 

 

29.5 now with strong 40-45mph east winds. 45-50mph winds are occurring just a tad east of me throughout Gresham-Troutdale. I might end up closer to 27.5 to 28.0 by 7-8 AM. Really impressive. Considering my low temp was 33.4 yesterday and high temp was 36.7 I might struggle to get much above freezing with the colder low-level air mass and stronger east wind. Even a chance east of I-205 doesn't get to freezing today. Very similar to a modified arctic front back door from the Gorge.

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*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*
*.*.*. HAPPY NEW YEAR .*.*.*

 

6z GFS Ensembles definitely improved. Ensemble mean cooler with more "chilly" members now. Let's keep this going and establish a trend

 

Portland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Seattle

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Vancouver, BC

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

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Wheres everybody at? The west side of WA seems to putting up the coldest temps this morning, that they've seen in a while.  13 here and theres a pretty decent breeze. Really really cold when I walk outside to my car in shorts, T-shirt and boots  :o

As of 8:23 am:

 

 

Yelm- @ my folks house is 17....

 

Tacoma- 23  according to WU

 

SEA- 25   

 

Puyallup- 19

 

Eatonville - 17

 

 

Pretty decent if you ask me.....Those are the numbers I really enjoyed waking up to when I lived in Puyallup....

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Some of you may want to look at the December thread.  I posted some stuff in there about a possible cold snap around day 10 and am too lazy to redo it in this thread.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Some of you may want to look at the December thread. I posted some stuff in there about a possible cold snap around day 10 and am too lazy to redo it in this thread.

I would be ok with a Jan. 2012 or Jan. 1996! Let's get the momentum going towards something like those years!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I would be ok with a Jan. 2012 or Jan. 1996! Let's get the momentum going towards something like those years!

I would be more than ok with 2012. I personally had more than a foot of snow on the ground with lows around 14 and wind chills maybe just about in the single digits. Areas further east of me were even colder than that!

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Well, in my desperate urge to enjoy some snow I decided to take the kids and one of their friends up to Paradise for a 6.5mile snow shoeing adventure. It was amazing and so beautiful! I love it up there. Here are few pics I took with my iPhone. :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Well, in my desperate urge to enjoy some snow I decided to take the kids and one of their friends up to Paradise for a 6.5mile snow shoeing adventure. It was amazing and so beautiful! I love it up there. Here are few pics I took with my iPhone. :)

 

 

 

Incredible.  I would give just about anything to see it like that here.  Nothing like heavy snow cover with a piercing blue sky!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Some of you may want to look at the December thread.  I posted some stuff in there about a possible cold snap around day 10 and am too lazy to redo it in this thread.

You posted this?

 

"Pretty interesting developments in the week two period.  A lot of models and ensemble members like the idea of some cold being forced into the NW due to a block over northern Canada digging a trough back into SW Canada.  Of particular interest is the ECMWF parallel model and the ECMWF ensemble control model (thanks WeatherBell), both of which dig some meaningful cold over the NW around day 10.  In fact the ECMWF parallel has the entire West well below normal for the 10 to 15 day period."

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Pretty weird how I ended up with an instant inversion here.  Breezy east winds all night and then a quick shift to light west winds brought in nearby cold air.  Presto!  Looking forward to a really cold one tonight.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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You posted this?

 

"Pretty interesting developments in the week two period.  A lot of models and ensemble members like the idea of some cold being forced into the NW due to a block over northern Canada digging a trough back into SW Canada.  Of particular interest is the ECMWF parallel model and the ECMWF ensemble control model (thanks WeatherBell), both of which dig some meaningful cold over the NW around day 10.  In fact the ECMWF parallel has the entire West well below normal for the 10 to 15 day period."

 

Yup...goes to show how little ambition I had to move it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Pretty good indication on various models the first half of January will end up at or below normal for temps in the NW.  After that the ECMWF continues to indicate a very favorable MJO wave for the second half of the month.  Looks a whole lot better than 2015 already!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yeah... not seeing anything real interesting on the horizon.   At best some more cold lowland rain.

 

12Z Canadian and the 12ZGFS have the ridge position over the west at 240 hours (and the 00Z ECMWF to some extent).    December had more promise and worked out for areas above 1,000 feet but was not worth much for most areas.   SEA and PDX had just a couple days below 32 for a low.   Standards are so low around here.    :)

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I would be more than ok with 2012. I personally had more than a foot of snow on the ground with lows around 14 and wind chills maybe just about in the single digits. Areas further east of me were even colder than that!

That was a great week! Think I ended up with 1.5ft. Think I had about 8-10" in 1996, still respectable!

Here was 2012 on my car.

image.jpeg

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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That was a great week! Think I ended up with 1.5ft. Think I had about 8-10" in 1996, still respectable!

Here was 2012 on my car.

 

I found the 1996 event to be much more enjoyable.  It got really cold and clear after it and even some good sized lakes froze over thick enough to walk on.  2010 was very gloomy in keeping with typical snow events of the 2000s.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The low of 23 at Boeing Field this morning is pretty darn impressive.  Probaby hasn't been that cold there since Feb 2014.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Not too exciting on the 12Z ECMWF today.   Remember some minor tweaks will take it farther away and make it a little warmer!     That is how it works.   :)

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016010112!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Pretty good indication on various models the first half of January will end up at or below normal for temps in the NW. After that the ECMWF continues to indicate a very favorable MJO wave for the second half of the month. Looks a whole lot better than 2015 already!

Actually, that looks like classic contamination of the phase diagrams. The MJO looks to degrade w/ CPAC (ENSO) forcing in conjunction w/ IO-re-ignition.

 

One more shot in late January, IMO.

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Actually, that looks like classic contamination of the phase diagrams. The MJO looks to degrade w/ CPAC (ENSO) forcing in conjunction w/ IO-re-ignition.

 

One more shot in late January, IMO.

 

 

That feels about right.   Probably marginal at best in late January and then there will be the 'stick a fork in winter' posts.     3 weeks to wait through quiet split flow until an active period again.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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