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January 2016 in the PNW


crf450ish

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Only got down to 24 last night due to constant eat wind. It's so dry, hurts my nose. 29f now

 

How do you eat wind?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I really like the 12z ECMWF.  Arctic air finally makes an appearance just to the east and then the pattern looks favorable to dig the cold back toward the NW at day 10.  At face value chilly for the NW with weak offshore gradients and no Pacific influence in the 6 to 10 day period.  The parallel ECMWF might have been onto something on the 0z.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like the cold pool will pretty effectively mix out on the westside by Wednesday or so. Temps back around average by then. 

 

A new one develops right afterward though.  The GFS shows that to some extent and the ECMWF to a great extent.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12Z ECMWF has two periods of very light precip for the Seattle area through the end of next week.   

 

First one on Sunday night and then the second one on Tuesday night.    Almost totally dry through the end of next week otherwise, and probably less than .10 of rain combined on Sunday and Tuesday night.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Great potential here.

 

 

For Minneapolis.   

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016010112!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Guest Winterdog

That feels about right.   Probably marginal at best in late January and then there will be the 'stick a fork in winter' posts.     3 weeks to wait through quiet split flow until an active period again.

Well you are doing good so far this year Tim. First five posts aimed at bringing us all down from the positive perspective from other members. Happy New Year.
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The interesting thing about the ECMWF is it actually shows an amplification and retrogression in the 8 to 10 day period.  Just saying what the model shows...

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Well you are doing good so far this year Tim. First five posts aimed at bringing us all down from the positive perspective from other members. Happy New Year.

 

He totally ignores the fact this has a very decent chance of being a rare cold El Nino January.  As I've said before...give me anything but a parade of sickening dying warm fronts.

 

I don't read most of Tim's posts at times like this because I know every one of them will be negative.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Well you are doing good so far this year Tim. First five posts aimed at bringing us all down from the positive perspective from other members. Happy New Year.

Just being realistic. I want to have some activity as well. But not going to sit here and make something out of nothing.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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He totally ignores the fact this has a very decent chance of being a rare cold El Nino January. As I've said before...give me anything but a parade of sickening dying warm fronts.

 

I don't read most of Tim's posts at times like this because I know every one of them will be negative.

I was way more positive than I should have been with the systems last week. And your standards are at rock bottom so if success is not having a record warmth month than this will be an awesome month.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The interesting thing about the ECMWF is it actually shows an amplification and retrogression in the 8 to 10 day period.  Just saying what the model shows...

Seems like the ensembles have been at times hinting at pushing the highest anomalies back towards Alaska during week 2 of January.  Too early to say if it means anything, but maybe worth watching. 

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Guest Winterdog

Just being realistic. I want to have some activity as well. But not going to sit here and make something out of nothing.

Much better to make nothing out of the possibility of something I guess. It's not what you say as much as when you say it. Your posts are often like cat turds in the vanilla ice cream, you can eat around them but somehow the whole thing gets ruined.
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Seems like the ensembles have been at times hinting at pushing the highest anomalies back towards Alaska during week 2 of January.  Too early to say if it means anything, but maybe worth watching. 

 

The European suite of models strongly hints at it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Much better to make nothing out of the possibility of something I guess. It's not what you say as much as when you say it. Your posts are often like cat turds in the vanilla ice cream, you can eat around them but somehow the whole thing gets ruined.

Whatever. I will wait for Dewey to start talking potential to get excited. He thought the December hype was unwarranted and was right again.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Whatever. I will wait for Dewey to start talking potential to get excited. He thought the December hype was unwarranted and was right again.

By mid month I was pretty stoked for the potential of a +PNA ridge close to the end of the month!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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That feels about right. Probably marginal at best in late January and then there will be the 'stick a fork in winter' posts. 3 weeks to wait through quiet split flow until an active period again.

Yeah, after the late January potential, I think the E/SE will rake it in at the expense of the rest of the country as -NAO/+PNA dominates.

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His snow is getting crusty.

 

I like it crusty.  Very hard to melt then.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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BTW I want to make it clear I'm not saying I expect anything grand before mid month, but to me staying away from a gloomy / drippy much above normal temperature regime is a huge victory with this Nino.  Give me cold in any form over that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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BTW I want to make it clear I'm not saying I expect anything grand before mid month, but to me staying away from a gloomy / drippy much above normal temperature regime is a huge victory with this Nino. Give me cold in any form over that.

You mean we have to wait TWO WEEKS for something grand????

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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12Z ECMWF still lifts a band of light precip north from Oregon across western WA on Sunday night.   

 

Looks like 850 temps stay right around or below freezing so would likely be some very light snow falling.

 

Didn't I mention this possibly occurring several days ago... :rolleyes:

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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BTW I want to make it clear I'm not saying I expect anything grand before mid month, but to me staying away from a gloomy / drippy much above normal temperature regime is a huge victory with this Nino.  Give me cold in any form over that.

 

Could you imagine going into a pattern like this after a 2008 or 2012 type snowfall. 

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Could you imagine going into a pattern like this after a 2008 or 2012 type snowfall. 

 

I hope to see it again someday.  It used to happen much more often.  That has been one of the really disappointing things about this century so far.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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You mean we have to wait TWO WEEKS for something grand????

 

I think you must admit the pattern is convoluted enough that it's impossible to say when or if something big will happen.  It is in the window of possibility the situation around day 10 could end up being something good.  The 6z GFS was quite interesting and the 12z ECMWF possibly looks poised at day 10.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I think you must admit the pattern is convoluted enough that it's impossible to say when or if something big will happen.  It is in the window of possibility the situation around day 10 could end up being something good.  The 6z GFS was quite interesting and the 12z ECMWF possibly looks poised at day 10.

 

 

Very much doubt that something big happens.    But it won't be warm and wet.   That makes for a nice January like you said.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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BTW it hasn't reached 50 here since Dec 10.  Hopefully we can keep that streak going for a long time more.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I think you must admit the pattern is convoluted enough that it's impossible to say when or if something big will happen. It is in the window of possibility the situation around day 10 could end up being something good. The 6z GFS was quite interesting and the 12z ECMWF possibly looks poised at day 10.

Anything's possible, but if I were a betting man I'd be playing pretty fast and loose on a fairly quiet final two thirds of winter.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Much warmer today... 37 here with a dewpoint of 18.

 

No melting at all... there is no water anywhere.    I think the snow is start to sublimate a little. It almost has to with a brisk wind and very dry air.    Still very little change in the snow cover, but it is much nicer to lose snow on a brilliantly sunny day as opposed to a rainy, gloomy day.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Anything's possible, but if I were a betting man I'd be playing pretty fast and loose on a fairly quiet final two thirds of winter.

 

 

That is so boring and depressing.   Lets pretend for another few weeks!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Anything's possible, but if I were a betting man I'd be playing pretty fast and loose on a fairly quiet final two thirds of winter.

Winter is far from over. The end of Feb. 2007 was lovely.

image.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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