January 2016 in the PNW

[bainbridgekid]

Looks extremely snowy in Morton and I-5 is snow covered just South of Chehalis.

 

 

 

[Jbolin]

That ULL is causing the main precip band to tilt away from W. Wa and the main metro area

 

Doubt Sea proper see's much of anything

[bainbridgekid]

31.5 here now... dewpoint of 29.

 

Schools will be closed tomorrow.   Another day with the kids home.  

My thoughts and prayers are with you.

[snow_wizard]

This thing has huge potential if the band can move to where many people on this forum live.  It appears it's all snow from Lewis County northward.

[Front Ranger]

Deformation band is moving at an absolute snails pace. Wish we could get a report from the middle of that. If it's all snow and it stays this stationary, somebody's gonna get 6" tonight into tomorrow morning.

Tim?

 

I bet the Bonney Lake dude comes home to some decent accumulation. Jim also seems in position to do well.

[snow_wizard]

That ULL is causing the main precip band to tilt away from W. Wa and the main metro area

 

Doubt Sea proper see's much of anything

 

The models say it will move this way.  I'm not betting on anything though.  The 0z GFS shows pretty huge amounts of precip for Seattle and Tacoma so I wouldn't rule it out.

[epiceast]

Tim?

 

I bet the Bonney Lake dude comes home to some decent accumulation. Jim also seems in position to do well.

The band is moving north at a speed less than 5 miles an hour... Tough luck Puget Sound.

[TT-SEA]

My thoughts and prayers are with you.

 

 

Thank you.   I will need it.   

[bainbridgekid]

The band is moving north at a speed less than 5 miles an hour... Tough luck Puget Sound.

It's interesting how quickly the weak showers to the North of the deformation zone are moving North while the zone itself stays almost stationary.

 

Slow moving is a very good thing as long as it reaches you. So frustrating when it stays just to your South.

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely dumping snow here.   You can tell the air mass is close to being saturated... very different than all day.

[crf450ish]

WULL= Wandering upper level low.....

 

 

Can anyone explain, scientifically, what is causing the behavior of this ULL? How the heck it's still going to be lingering around for several days?

 

The science behind this is what is intriguing.

[bainbridgekid]

WULL= Wandering upper level low.....

 

 

Can anyone explain, scientifically, what is causing the behavior of this ULL? How the heck it's still going to be lingering around for several days?

 

The science behind this is what is intriguing.

It's stuck in the middle of a giant split in the jet stream. Without any strong upper level winds to push it around, it just kind of meanders around slowly.

 

The Northern branch goes up through Alaska while the Southern branch slams California and the ULL meanders around in the middle.

 

[epiceast]

It's in a middle of the ridge as well, which makes it move around awkwardly instead of being absorbed into a proper trough.

[snow_wizard]

The WeatherBell maps showed the precip band right where it is until 6z or so.  After that it jumps north and SW King County gets 0.3 of water between 6z and 12z.  So far it's going as shown.

[MossMan]

It's in a middle of the ridge as well, which makes it move around awkwardly instead of being absorbed into a proper trough.

Seems like a first for me since I have been following the weather via technology anyway. Any past examples of this type of feature giving us winter weather? If we do indeed get a significant snow like the GFS is hinting at it will be the first of my memory with a fairly positive PNA!

[Bryant]

00Z brings the low in further south and weaker for the weekend potential compared to the 18z, leaving Whatcom County out of most the action. At least we have climo on our side to bring the low further north. Its time we get some fun

[crf450ish]

It's stuck in the middle of a giant split in the jet stream. Without any strong upper level winds to push it around, it just kind of meanders around slowly.

 

The Northern branch goes up through Alaska while the Southern branch slams California and the ULL meanders around in the middle.

 

gfs_namer_021_200_wnd_ht_s.gif

When is the last time we seen this type of behavior? I can't imagine this always happens with a split flow pattern. 

Another thing too, where is it pulling all of its moisture from? 

 

Thank you for your feedback, I appreciate it. Still learning here...

[bainbridgekid]

00Z brings the low in further south and weaker for the weekend potential compared to the 18z, leaving Whatcom County out of most the action. At least we have climo on our side to bring the low further north. Its time we get some fun

Obviously a lot of possibilities a week out, but you definitely have the best chance of scoring next weekend being the closest to the cold air in BC.

[MossMan]

00Z brings the low in further south and weaker for the weekend potential compared to the 18z, leaving Whatcom County out of most the action. At least we have climo on our side to bring the low further north. Its time we get some fun

Lots of time for things to "tweak". Between a possibly snowy weekend and Seahawks playoff game, it should be an exciting weekend coming up!

[Bryant]

Obviously a lot of possibilities a week out, but you definitely have the best chance of scoring next weekend being the closest to the cold air in BC.

I'm all for everyone getting in on the action, would just be nice if I was included in this equation lol. Been a bummer up this way so far

[epiceast]

When is the last time we seen this type of behavior? I can't imagine this always happens with a split flow pattern. 

Another thing too, where is it pulling all of its moisture from? 

 

Thank you for your feedback, I appreciate it. Still learning here...

The low tapped off into a part off the split jet near Southern California and carried it as a "tail" behind it all the way up to PNW. It's basically the same batch of moisture  being carried behind it through a ridge for almost a thousand miles, and that also explains why the deformation band is so small.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is pretty for next weekend.  Much of Western WA gets a lot of snow.

[snow_wizard]

I'm all for everyone getting in on the action, would just be nice if I was included in this equation lol. Been a bummer up this way so far

 

I have to get mine first.  It has been horrendous here.

[TT-SEA]

The WRF is pretty for next weekend.  Much of Western WA gets a lot of snow.

 

 

Indeed...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/ww_snow72.180.0000.gif

[Bryant]

I have to get mine first. It has been horrendous here.

You have a good chance to get yours tonight

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF shows cold air moving into eastern Washington at day 5 now. Modified blast by day 6-7. Strong blast with very strong east wind into PDX next weekend. GAME ON!!!!

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2016010400/images_d2/slp.180.0000.gif

[Jbolin]

Indeed...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/ww_snow72.180.0000.gif

$100 bucks this doesn't materialize and the Hawks put up a fifty burger

[crf450ish]

I'm all for everyone getting in on the action, would just be nice if I was included in this equation lol. Been a bummer up this way so far

I was working at BP refinery most of last year. Started there on the 5th of Jan. I remember a lane or two NB I-5 right after BIA being closed due to standing water. Allot of areas in Ferndale & Blaine were flooded out. Bellingham RV park was nice and squishy as well. Did the flooding impact you? I ask because I remember seeing snow on top of allot of cars coming from the Cedarville area and I could not understand how the heck it was so dang warm and wet where I was, yet cars were rolling in with snow on them. 

[crf450ish]

The low tapped off into a part off the split jet near Southern California and carried it as a "tail" behind it all the way up to PNW. It's basically the same batch of moisture  being carried behind it through a ridge for almost a thousand miles, and that also explains why the deformation band is so small.

Nice! I just looked at this in-between you replying and me reading your reply. 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[Bryant]

I was working at BP refinery most of last year. Started there on the 5th of Jan. I remember a lane or two NB I-5 right after BIA being closed due to standing water. Allot of areas in Ferndale & Blaine were flooded out. Bellingham RV park was nice and squishy as well. Did the flooding impact you? I ask because I remember seeing snow on top of allot of cars coming from the Cedarville area and I could not understand how the heck it was so dang warm and wet where I was, yet cars were rolling in with snow on them.

I'm having trouble remembering this event honestly. I live in an area that's not impacted by flooding at all.

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian bascially agrees with the GFS showing a PV lobe nosing into NE WA late in the week.  It doesn't keep the pattern favorable quite as long, but the idea is there.

[crf450ish]

I'm having trouble remembering this event honestly. I live in an area that's not impacted by flooding at all.

I'll put it to you like this: Every back road/residential road west of BIA between the Lummi Indian Res & Lake Terrel= Flooded and nearly impassible. I was trying to find a faster way back to my RV after work, instead of taking hwy 548 to I-5, I took Kickerville to rainbow rd. and that led to slater road...big mistake. I was blown away by the rivers of water flowing 5' deep over asphalt. 

[crf450ish]

00z WRF shows cold air moving into eastern Washington at day 5 now. Modified blast by day 6-7. Strong blast with very strong east wind into PDX next weekend. GAME ON!!!!

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2016010400/images_d2/slp.180.0000.gif

This must be the perfect combination of arctic air coupled with a low pressure system that we have all been waiting for to happen again? I have to say, I am bit on edge to see just how cold it can get here where I'm at. All of our vehicles are up to snuff maintenance wise, and so is the house. Weird things happen with REALLY cold temps from what I understand.    Square tires....lol

[BLI snowman]

Close to 1/4" ice accumulation now. Thin glaze on all the trees. Fairly significant storm.

[Jesse]

Close to 1/4" ice accumulation now. Thin glaze on all the trees. Fairly significant storm.

 

Same down here. Wonder if Clark College will be open tomorrow?

[bainbridgekid]

The Canadian also lifts the band North over Seattle between 4 and 10 AM.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

The ice accumulations are getting concerning here. It's nearly as thick as the cable line now about 1/2". Trees are bending and worst of all the east wind was just 10-15 G 20 has picked up again past few gusts near 25mph... that's bad news for trees/power outages.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I am coming down west side of Snoqualmie and its snowing like crazy

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Coming down hard in north bend 31 degrees

[HighlandExperience]

Coming down hard in north bend 31 degrees

 

Funny it seems the current band of moisture is running parallel to highway 18. Just need it to move north by about 10 miles.