January 2016 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Got up to check the situation... dumping snow here and 31.  Looks like about 3 inches of snow so far.   Better than freezing rain.  Looks like rain below me though in North Bend and even at Tiger Mountain.    Band is moving north like the models showed.   ECMWF did the best... showing significant precip for tonight when the other models were mostly dry.    

[Jbolin]

Looks like near everybody below 900ft ASL is experiencing either all rain or a mix of rain and ZR

 

There might be "some" wet bulb taking place in spots but most everyone is rain

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like near everybody below 900ft ASL is experiencing either all rain or a mix of rain and ZR

 

There might be "some" wet bulb taking place in spots but most everyone is rain

 

Yup noticed that. How lame is that? Lots of lumpy rain 

[MossMan]

Very light snow up here with a dusting on the ground including the roads. 31 degrees.

[Tyler Mode]

30.6 here with a near constant freezing drizzle.

[Jbolin]

A little "finger" of warm air near the surface from about Tacoma extending North and Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Still dumping snow here... but looks like rain at Tiger Mountain at 1,377 feet.

[Phil]

So, poleward AAM propagation --> Pacific jet igition --> Brief warm shot across nation in late January. Overall, the ongoing flip to -NAM/+PNA will sustain, minus a few ups and downs.

Should point out the fact that this should help enhance/sustain the -NAO/-NAM down the road into February (poleward MFs downstream of N/NE-PAC vorticity).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yesterday

 

PDX 32/28

SLE  32/24

EUG 31/24

 

 

I think this was the first sub-freezing high at PDX in January since 2007...

[TT-SEA]

About 6 inches here and still dumping.    Massive flakes right now.   31 degrees.

 

Schools 2 hours late... likely because it looks wet down in the valley.

[westcoastexpat]

12Z GFS and Euro were amazing to see... just storm after storm hitting the west coast. Should be interesting to see the drought remedy effects.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It has been rain all night here. Snow mostly gone

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene is still only 30 with dense fog. If they don't pull a south wind today they won't get out of the mid-30s.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just woke up. 31.1 degrees, about 1/2" ice, and still quite breezy east winds. It has moderated a bit more than I expected. I just looked at the 6z GFS. Similar to previous GFS/GEM runs. Cold, arctic air moves into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin in 5-6 days. It's a glancing blow as the heart of the bitter air heads down into Montana with a strong Canadian High around 1044mb. It does turn quite cold Gorge/east. The deeper arctic air doesn't blast over us, but due to strong east wind it will gradually thicken up over PDX as usual. Then after day 7 a second reinforcing shot once again targets Montana with a very strong 1050mb+ arctic high. This allows more cold air to spill into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin and tightens offshore gradients dramatically. This would all likely result in a long duration persistent cold pool. If the pattern was slightly different and the bulk of arctic air were a bit further west we'd see a significant blast via Gorge. The GFS/GEM has shown quite good run to run consistency for this possibility whereas the ECMWF has waffled going back and forth on the idea. If this does happen it'll be in the 5-7 day range on models, so at least it's not a long ways off or in la-la land rather in a realistic/believable time frame.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just woke up. 31.1 degrees, about 1/2" ice, and still quite breezy east winds. It has moderated a bit more than I expected. I just looked at the 6z GFS. Similar to previous GFS/GEM runs. Cold, arctic air moves into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin in 5-6 days. It's a glancing blow as the heart of the bitter air heads down into Montana with a strong Canadian High around 1044mb. It does turn quite cold Gorge/east. The deeper arctic air doesn't blast over us, but due to strong east wind it will gradually thicken up over PDX as usual. Then after day 7 a second reinforcing shot once again targets Montana with a very strong 1050mb+ arctic high. This allows more cold air to spill into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin and tightens offshore gradients dramatically. This would all likely result in a long duration persistent cold pool. If the pattern was slightly different and the bulk of arctic air were a bit further west we'd see a significant blast via Gorge. The GFS/GEM has shown quite good run to run consistency for this possibility whereas the ECMWF has waffled going back and forth on the idea. If this does happen it'll be in the 5-7 day range on models, so at least it's not a long ways off or in la-la land rather in a realistic/believable time frame.

 

I felt like there was some ensemble improvement. 

[Snowman5678]

Tiniest dusting of snow on the ground right now at 34 degrees. The band has been sitting just to my south and east for the last hour, looking at webcams the edge of my hill a couple miles to my east is getting some good accumulation. So frustrating. Hoping it eventually moves over here before it gets to warm or dies out.

[Gradient Keeper]

I felt like there was some ensemble improvement. 

Ya, some for sure

 

12z GFS in 50 minutes

[Snowman5678]

Temp rising quickly now being stuck on the fringe of this. Webcams show snow covered roads a couple miles to my east. Frustrating as hell. By the time precip gets here it will likely be too warm

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My temp sat at 32 all night. Should be an interesting 30 mile drive to work....

[Poulsbo Snowman]

A little "finger" of warm air near the surface from about Tacoma extending North and Northwest

 

I know which finger it was. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I know which finger it was. 

Pinky?

[TT-SEA]

My temp sat at 32 all night. Should be an interesting 30 mile drive to work....

 

 

My wife just left for work with her all-wheel drive and chains on and just came back home and said it was not worth it.   Roads are clogged with snow here and still dumping snow.

[Tyler Mode]

I see the moon...a little clearing which is allowing temps to drop some. Down to 30.4

Calm wind though.  Pretty out with 2/10th inch of ice or so.

[ShawniganLake]

My wife just left for work with her all-wheel drive and chains on and just came back home and said it was not worth it. Roads are clogged with snow here and still dumping snow.

All wheel drive and chains and still no? Must be pretty icy.

[TT-SEA]

Just 8 inches here and the radar still looks very active.   Where is my warm air???   

[Timmy]

Just 8 inches here and the radar still looks very active. Where is my warm air???

8" new?

[TT-SEA]

All wheel drive and chains and still no? Must be pretty icy.

 

 

She is a wimp.   We do have a couple steep hills going down to the freeway.    Its a 600 foot drop in elevation.   But there is no ice.   Just deep snow in the road.   Hard to even tell where the road is since it is still dumping snow and visibility is bad.   Any tracks get covered up quickly.

[TT-SEA]

8" new?

 

8 inches of new powdery snow.   

 

Well over a foot on the ground.   The bottom 5-6 inches is frozen hard and crusty and now 8 inches on top of that.

 

Too bad its going to warm up so thoroughly now.   This would be nice to keep.   I have found that right before it warms up here... we end up getting the most snow.   I would like to have just gone to rain if this is all going to melt in the next couple days anyways.   

 

And the radar says its not even close to being done.   Stuck at 31 degrees.

[crf450ish]

8 inches of new powdery snow.   

 

Well over a foot on the ground.   The bottom 5-6 inches is frozen hard and crusty and now 8 inches on top of that.

 

Too bad its going to warm up so thoroughly now.   This would be nice to keep.   I have found that right before it warms up here... we end up getting the most snow.   I would like to have just gone to rain if this is all going to melt in the next couple days anyways.   

 

And the radar says its not even close to being done.   Stuck at 31 degrees.

No snow plows in your neighborhood? 

[Front Ranger]

Bummer, sounds like another near miss for widespread snow in western WA.

[Jesse]

Bummer, sounds like another near miss for widespread snow in western WA.

It all would have melted eventually anyway, so they are lucky to have been spared.

[MossMan]

I am in Lewis Co in the Chehalis area and there is nearly 2" of snow on the ground with very slushy roads. At home my wife texted me saying it's snowing with roads covered.

[TT-SEA]

No snow plows in your neighborhood? 

 

 

They do plow us out very well usually.   Just waiting for them now.

 

Typically if it snows overnight then we are plowed out by 6 or 7 a.m. but they might be waiting today since its still snowing hard.

[BLI snowman]

8 inches of new powdery snow.   

 

Well over a foot on the ground.   The bottom 5-6 inches is frozen hard and crusty and now 8 inches on top of that.

 

Too bad its going to warm up so thoroughly now.   This would be nice to keep.   I have found that right before it warms up here... we end up getting the most snow.   I would like to have just gone to rain if this is all going to melt in the next couple days anyways.   

 

And the radar says its not even close to being done.   Stuck at 31 degrees.

 

40 degrees this week isn't going to melt a foot of snow. You should have some hanging around for awhile.

[Jesse]

Intriguing pattern the next couple weeks. One thing that really sticks out to me is how chilly it stays, overall. And in January of all months!

[crf450ish]

My parents drove over here Saturday night and stayed in a motel in Davenport then spent all day here yesterday and drove back last night. They rolled out of my driveway at 5pm sharp yesterday and rolled into their driveway in Yelm at 12:45 am this morning. Snowed the entire way home they said in a late night text. 

[TT-SEA]

40 degrees this week isn't going to melt a foot of snow. You should have some hanging around for awhile.

 

 

Yeah... there will be some left.   But it will be very sloppy.    It would be awesome to have this much snow with cold offshore flow coming up.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's awesome tim!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ten miles from my house to Silverton was a nightmare. Between Silverton and Salem is pretty bad too

[Snowman5678]

Woke up to a slight accumulation on most surfaces but a rain/snow mix falling with a temp of 33. Was really hoping for more. This whole 'edge of snow' thing we have had since Christmas has almost been worse than just warm rain. Just keeps teasing you.

Our hill is extremely slick with the snow/slush/ice mixture on the roads. I even have 4wd and I almost ended up in the ditch. Granted, our hill is almost a straight drop down but nonetheless.

Same story here. I totally agree, all this fringy stuff is driving me nuts! I'm willing to bet you guys get snow once I leave