January 2016 in the PNW

[BLI snowman 5825]

Low of 30 on my 30th!

 

#firstdayofspring

 

#wintercancel

 

January 6 has been an unofficial first day of spring for awhile now, before mid winter's annual return in late February.

 

Happy birthday!

[stuffradio 911]

We'll be incredibly lucky to see 33 degree rain the rest of the winter, let alone snow.

The first thing I wish for when I wake up in the morning is, "I hope I get 33 degree rain today!"

[Deweydog 13280]

49 at SeaTac!

[Front Ranger 7373]

It wasn't a meridionally amplified block, though. Without the aforementioned -NAO block/NATL wave breaking, that winter would have been a zonal mess.

 

image.png

If you look at the time period that was cold for the PNW (late December - late January), it was definitely an amplified, full on -EPO/-PNA pattern for the most part.

 

Given the direction weather moves, I believe the Pacific pattern is much more important for the West than the NAO. In fact, the EPO has stronger correlation for cold for the country overall than either the AO or NAO.

[Snowman5678 147]

47 at SEA at 11 a.m.

Was just in Bellevue and it honestly feels like an early spring day. 

[Front Ranger 7373]

Low of 30 on my 30th!

 

#firstdayofspring

 

#wintercancel

If only you were 20 today!

 

Happy DOB.

[luvssnow_seattle 1621]

49 at SeaTac!

Finally!! 

[TT-SEA 1766]

49 at SeaTac!

 

 

Going to break that magical 50 barrier!  

 

47 here.   

 

Time to plant the garden.

[Jesse 7705]

Hitting 50 is pretty normal even in the middle of the winter.

 

The fact that it seems so warm is more testament to how consistently chilly the last few weeks have been.

[TT-SEA 1766]

My lawn! Its been almost 3 weeks. 50 degrees here.

 

From a peak of almost 14 inches on the ground just 2 days ago to this now...

 

http://s23.postimg.org/5o776dnsr/2016_01_06_12_53_30.jpg

[Bryant 2142]

It's a bummer that we have the arctic air building to our North, but will be neglected due to a strong jet and Aluetian low. Our best hope is a relaxation of the jet, allowing cold air to spill south a bit, but that doesn't look likely anytime soon with the MJO over the Pacific.

 

In a typical weak ENSO year, we could count on a jet retraction and Aluetian high (downstream trough over west) as the MJO reignited over the IO and shifted into the Maritime region in a couple weeks, but this year is very different. Strong stagnant ENSO conditions (convection/upward motion over the Pacific and suppression/downward motion over the Maritime) will cause the MJO to break down as it approaches the Maritime region, which would benefit the west. The break down is due to upper levels not supporting the convective / thunderstorm nature of the propagating wave.

 

All in all, everything is working against us right now, but I suppose you never know!

[Phil 10998]

If you look at the time period that was cold for the PNW (late December - late January), it was definitely an amplified, full on -EPO/-PNA pattern for the most part.

 

Given the direction weather moves, I believe the Pacific pattern is much more important for the West than the NAO. In fact, the EPO has stronger correlation for cold for the country overall than either the AO or NAO.

Look at the meridional W/M flux integrals over the NPAC/Beaufort during that period. That ridge was flat-topped aloft via E-HEM +AAM. Without the NATL response, the result would have been something along the lines of 2014-15.

[Phil 10998]

Wow, just wait until this propagates poleward Some major s**t about to go down through the next 7+ weeks.

[Front Ranger 7373]

Look at the meridional W/M flux integrals over the NPAC/Beaufort during that period. That ridge was flat-topped aloft via E-HEM +AAM. Without the NATL response, the result would have been something along the lines of 2014-15.

 

Ok...it's just that you said there was a "lack of NPAC blocking" in 1968-69, which was "overcome" by the -NAO. In Dec/Jan, the time period that mattered for the PNW, there was substantial NPAC blocking, and it was easily the stronger signal.

 

 

[TT-SEA 1766]

52 at SEA.

[epiceast 270]

Over a decade now for me. When I started I only had one kid, Dewey was barely two years old, Jim was ridiculously confident about the winter to come and Tim was mowing his lawn with kitchen shears.

 

So much has changed.

 

Happy birthday!

So that's why Tim hates the rain! Jim's way of hazing new forum members, forcing them to cut the grass on their lawn, rather than mow it.

[luvssnow_seattle 1621]

Wow, just wait until this propagates poleward Some major s**t about to go down through the next 7+ weeks.image.jpeg

Honestly if it is really means normal status quo for us I am not sure why you are posting it here???  Not sure what your point is???

[Phil 10998]

Ok...it's just that you said there was a "lack of NPAC blocking" in 1968-69, which was "overcome" by the -NAO. In Dec/Jan, the time period that mattered for the PNW, there was substantial NPAC blocking, and it was easily the stronger signal.

 

RaXhkf3WmQ.png

Anomalous ridges are not necessarily true "blocks", or complete anticyclonic breaks independent of antecedent flow.

 

That NPAC ridge, by itself, would have done nothing for the PNW. The reason upstream blocking was able to sustain, as it did, was thanks to downstream feedback.

 

I hope that clears things up somewhat.

[TT-SEA 1766]

54 at UW in Seattle.   

[Phil 10998]

Honestly if it is really means normal status quo for us I am not sure why you are posting it here??? Not sure what your point is???

What the heck are you talking about? There's nothing "status quo" about what is now ongoing.

[HighlandExperience 1458]

[Front Ranger 7373]

Anomalous ridges are not necessarily true "blocks", or complete anticyclonic breaks independent of antecedent flow.

 

That NPAC ridge, by itself, would have done nothing for the PNW. The reason upstream blocking was able to sustain, as it did, was thanks to downstream feedback.

 

I hope that clears things up somewhat.

 

Not going to argue this with you, but this seems like semantics to me. If that's not NPAC blocking, I don't know what is. 

 

And regardless of the NAO, that's the kind of blocking that usually delivers cold air to the PNW.

[Guest Winterdog]

What the heck are you talking about? There's nothing "status quo" about what is now ongoing.

Status Quo for us means no snow. His point is unless the graphics indicate something different for us why did you post it. Most of us have no idea what the graphic means.

[Deweydog 13280]

2016 picked nits appear very similar to 2015 models.  

[Deweydog 13280]

 

 

What the heck are you talking about? There's nothing "status quo" about what is now ongoing.

 

Honestly if it is really means normal status quo for us I am not sure why you are posting it here???  Not sure what your point is???

Status Quo for us means no snow. His point is unless the graphics indicate something different for us why did you post it. Most of us have no idea what the graphic means.

 

 

 

I found it interesting.  It's been a long time since we've had GLAAM graphics posted here with sensational text affixed to it.  

[Front Ranger 7373]

This sums up the coming pattern. Off the charts (literally) Arctic blocking, but Pacific pattern means it's no good for the West. -AO is overrated.

 

 

 

 

[Jesse 7705]

Still only 43 at PDX. They probably won't crack 45 today. Lots of patches/piles of snow still around in Vancouver.

 

The heart of winter is a nice time.

[luvssnow_seattle 1621]

What the heck are you talking about? There's nothing "status quo" about what is now ongoing.

Let me clarify a wee bit more... You post some graphic that most us have no clue what it is for or how to read... then post some OMG statement with no explanation what your are OMG'ing about, for or where it will impact. If it is not something that impacts our area then why in the OMF'ingG  are you posting it here?   If there is a correlation to our area then an explanation is needed.. Please! ... OMG!  

[Phil 10998]

Not going to argue this with you, but this seems like semantics to me. If that's not NPAC blocking, I don't know what is.

 

And regardless of the NAO, that's the kind of blocking that usually delivers cold air to the PNW.

Yes, what occurred was "blocking", but without the aforementioned downstream/NATL feedback, that block would not have occurred in the manner it did, and the end result would probably have been some sort of +PNA look.

 

Does that make sense?

[Phil 10998]

This sums up the coming pattern. Off the charts (literally) Arctic blocking, but Pacific pattern means it's no good for the West. -AO is overrated.

This is hogwash. The NAM/NPAC are coupled, in this case (and in most cases).

 

Remember the bouts of NPAC blocking back in November/December, that ultimately failed to deliver? Yeah, you can thank the +PV/+NAM for that failure.

[Phil 10998]

Let me clarify a wee bit more... You post some graphic that most us have no clue what it is for or how to read... then post some OMG statement with no explanation what your are OMG'ing about, for or where it will impact. If it is not something that impacts our area then why in the OMF'ingG are you posting it here? If there is a correlation to our area then an explanation is needed.. Please! ... OMG!

I explained it all a page or two back. What exactly do you want me to elaborate on?

 

[Front Ranger 7373]

This is hogwash. The NAM/NPAC are coupled, in this case (and in most cases).

 

Remember the bouts of NPAC blocking back in November/December, that ultimately failed to deliver? Yeah, you can thank the +PV/+NAM for that failure.

Nov/Dec featured weak/neutral -EPO, with neutral to occasionally moderate -PNA. It wasn't a great NPAC blocking pattern by any means.

 

All I can say is that I've closely followed the patterns that deliver to the PNW/West over the past 20+ years, and the AO/NAO simply don't have a strong correlation to cold here. Much stronger correlation to EPO/PNA...which often do function independently of the Atlantic-side blocking.

 

In general, we all want a blocky/slow NH pattern. That's what's most likely to deliver cold to the mid latitudes. And some of the best patterns have featured blocking across the indices AO/NAO/EPO. But a -EPO block is the one most important for the West (hard to get real cold here without upstream blocking).

 

-AO means somewhere in the NH is getting cold, but not necessarily our part of the country. Current pattern: Exhibit A.

[Phil 10998]

Nov/Dec featured weak/neutral -EPO, with neutral to occasionally moderate -PNA. It wasn't a great NPAC blocking pattern by any means.

The GOA block during late November was actually 4mb stronger at its peak than the January 1969 block at its peak.

 

All I can say is that I've closely followed the patterns that deliver to the PNW/West over the past 20+ years, and the AO/NAO simply don't have a strong correlation to cold here. Much stronger correlation to EPO/PNA...which often do function independently of the Atlantic-side blocking.

That's true at face value, but you're ignoring the bigger picture in favor of isolating a single domain in an interconnected system.

 

The NPAC and NAM are a single interactive entity. Whether or not the NAM works with/against the PNW in any given pattern is highly dependent on a slew of forcings and stochastic resonances that render the usage of the NAM sign alone useless.

 

There are cases where a +NAM is beneficial/preferred in the PNW, and there are cases where a -NAM is beneficial/preferred.

[iFred 4653]

Happy birthday Jesse! Hope you and everyone else here gets a significant snow event before the season is over.

 

The only winter thing I've enjoyed was the 30/9 day we just had.

[crf450ish 487]

This Nino tied with the 97'-98' Nino per NWS spokesperson I just seen on KREM2 news here in Spoke...

[Guest Winterdog]

This Nino tied with the 97'-98' Nino per NWS spokesperson I just seen on KREM2 news here in Spoke...

Crap, now they will be going into extra innings! As an analog January 98 had a mini blast with a few teens here and December 98 wasn't bad at all. I had 10" of snow the week before Christmas and a few single digit lows. The rest of the winter sucked though.

[DJ Droppin 8212]

Happy Birthday

 

00z GFS in 54 minutes!

[DJ Droppin 8212]

7:05 PM Water Vapor Analysis
12 hour Loop - http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+25
I see some potential interesting developments on Water Vapor. Arctic air is trying to push back against the unusual southerly flow up into British Columbia/Alberta that has been in place the past several days. Analyzing a 12 hour loop the southern push of arctic air and drier, colder northerly flow is holding back the southerly flow and even suppressing it southward now approaching central BC/AB. Arctic air is very dense, heavy, and sometimes can shove the warmer air mass southward quite efficiently especially since it is waning now. This might be something to keep an eye on with the deeply suppressed jet.

http://i.imgur.com/hFPG6ff.png

[primetime 25]

Wow, just wait until this propagates poleward Some major s**t about to go down through the next 7+ weeks.image.jpeg

-NAM and STJ increase??

[Deweydog 13280]

7:05 PM Water Vapor Analysis

12 hour Loop - http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+25

I see some potential interesting developments on Water Vapor. Arctic air is trying to push back against the unusual southerly flow up into British Columbia/Alberta that has been in place the past several days. Analyzing a 12 hour loop the southern push of arctic air and drier, colder northerly flow is holding back the southerly flow and even suppressing it southward now approaching central BC/AB. Arctic air is very dense, heavy, and sometimes can shove the warmer air mass southward quite efficiently especially since it is waning now. This might be something to keep an eye on with the deeply suppressed jet.

http://i.imgur.com/hFPG6ff.png

Sure would be nice if we had some powerful computers to run statistical scenarios as to how air masses will evolve. That would definitely be a game changer!

[Front Ranger 7373]

Sure would be nice if we had some powerful computers to run statistical scenarios as to how air masses will evolve. That would definitely be a game changer!

That would take all the fun out of it, though.

[Deweydog 13280]

That would take all the fun out of it, though.

I distinctly remember my grandpa knowing if it was going to snow just by looking at the color of the clouds.

[crf450ish 487]

My wife can smell the snow coming. I told her I think she's smelling the dew point...

[DJ Droppin 8212]

Sure would be nice if we had some powerful computers to run statistical scenarios as to how air masses will evolve. That would definitely be a game changer!

To be clear this isn't me forecasting an arctic blast or expecting it to be colder than modeled. I am merely doing real-time analysis which often times proves to be very useful and sometimes does show new developments that models do not latch onto. Anything is possible.

[Deweydog 13280]

To be clear this isn't me forecasting an arctic blast or expecting it to be colder than modeled. I am merely doing real-time analysis which often times proves to be very useful and sometimes does show new developments that models do not latch onto. Anything is possible.

Expect the unexpected!

 

00z is running.

[TT-SEA 1766]

Expect the unexpected!

 

00z is running.

 

 

Split flow?   Some ridging?   Weak system on Saturday?   So many possibilities!  

[GHweatherChris 2866]

Split flow?   Some ridging?   Weak system on Saturday?   So many possibilities!  

Just 3 days ago the system Saturday looked good for some snow, so quick to disappear.  Stupid models.

 

#elninosaysbyebyetowinterweather

[DJ Droppin 8212]

Might have to get the spoon out.....

[crf450ish 487]

Pretty sweet graphic here depicting the Split flow and storm train riding into Cali...

[GHweatherChris 2866]

7:05 PM Water Vapor Analysis

12 hour Loop - http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+25

I see some potential interesting developments on Water Vapor. Arctic air is trying to push back against the unusual southerly flow up into British Columbia/Alberta that has been in place the past several days. Analyzing a 12 hour loop the southern push of arctic air and drier, colder northerly flow is holding back the southerly flow and even suppressing it southward now approaching central BC/AB. Arctic air is very dense, heavy, and sometimes can shove the warmer air mass southward quite efficiently especially since it is waning now. This might be something to keep an eye on with the deeply suppressed jet.

http://i.imgur.com/hFPG6ff.png

Nah, if you look at the loop it definitely looks like arctic air pushing more ESE than S.  Looks progged to move east to me.