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January 2016 in the PNW


crf450ish

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Comes down to irrational perceptions of what typical winterlike weather in the PNW actually is.

Or people who hate winter and want to get it over with as quickly as possible every year. :)

 

Obviously snow and arctic cold are never the norm around here, but even during a super Nino like this one there is an outside shot at something impactful from roughly mid-November through mid-February.

 

Climo can be a good guide, but winter climo around here is rain and mid-40s anyway. Looking at winter from a climo perspective you probably wouldn't be totally safe sticking a fork in 45 degree highs and rain until sometime in March.

 

Long story short, calling any season off in the middle of said season is kind of dumb. I think it mainly just pisses off Mother Nature.

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Definitely still have offshore flow out here... air mass is drying out nicely. 34 with a dewpoint of 30 and lots of blue sky. Snow is mostly off the trees but very little has melted. Tomorrow will probably be more messy but this is much nicer than thick drizzle and fog after a big snowfall.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Or people who hate winter and want to get it over with as quickly as possible. :)

 

Obviously snow and arctic cold are never the norm around here, but even during a super Nino like this one there is an outside shot at something impactful from roughly mid-November through mid-February.

 

Climo can be a good guide, but winter climo around here is rain and mid-40s anyway. Looking at winter from a climo perspective you probably wouldn't be totally safe sticking a fork in 45 degree highs and rain until sometime in March.

 

Long story short, calling any season off in the middle of said season is kind of dumb. I think it mainly just pisses off Mother Nature.

It's you against the world, kiddo.

 

I think it comes down to the fact summer is more of an afterthought. People may toy with the idea of 90 degree days dwindling or disappearing later in summer but summerlike weather is just an uncomfortable fact of life well into meteorological fall the vast majority of years.

 

On the other hand, winter is held in a much more anxious regard, full of more/less irrational proclamations by all kinds of people. Most of them tend to be irrationally positive, which is always more paletable but occasionally a negative one has to be digested. Both are typically wrong, or just end up right by chance.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I take it the 18z sucked...

Snow stopped here, just foggy and slushy!

 

If we extrapolate out to 500hrs I think we get a back door blast. The 18z looks pretty dry and full of "fake cold" potential. I expect DJ Droppin' to be posting cold pool updates soon. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I like that one "member."

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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So I take it that chance of an arctic blast for us is diminishing rather rapidly? Even though I live over here, I still have many friends/family in western wa who get a kick out of the extreme cold that graces us with its presence once in a while. 

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I like that one "member."

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

That blue is my new favorite color!!!!! I am no expert...but to me it looks like the models are a bit lost and all over the place from about the 8th on. Still lots of potential!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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18Z GFS is crazy dry for the next 10 days. A little rain tomorrow but not much else.

Weren't people just talking about AR's coming and swallowing us and our snowpack up?

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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It's you against the world, kiddo.

 

I think it comes down to the fact summer is more of an afterthought. People may toy with the idea of 90 degree days dwindling or disappearing later in summer but summerlike weather is just an uncomfortable fact of life well into meteorological fall the vast majority of years.

 

On the other hand, winter is held in a much more anxious regard, full of more/less irrational proclamations by all kinds of people. Most of them tend to be irrationally positive, which is always more paletable but occasionally a negative one has to be digested. Both are typically wrong, or just end up right by chance.

Bit more of an armchair psychologist take than I was going for, but fair enough.

 

Unreasonable expectations aside, if you look at the type of "winter" climo that is anogalous to 85+ degree days in relation to summer climo (maybe highs in the low 40s?) that kind of stuff has just as much a tendency to drag into early spring as 85+ warmth does into early fall.

 

As it stands, the type of winter wx people get excited over is much more anomalous from a climatological perspective than 85+ degree warmth in the summer. The kind of stuff we live and die by here has a much shorter seasonal shelf life in this climate. That's what makes it so special/unusual. And there are definitely a lot of warped expectations involved with it.

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WRF from this morning shows offshore flow continuing most of the week.   In fact, offshore winds pick up tonight and through tomorrow again down I-90 from the pass and into North Bend.   Probably not strong enough to clear the muck in Seattle but I doubt we see any fog at all this week here.    Its almost always nice here with offshore flow even if its going to warm up.

 

There was no liquid precip here today... it went from snowing to sleeting and then to blue sky around noon. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I set up a game camera at my property to see what i could get on film. Very nice buck.

Will you adopt me?

 

Seems like the slush in the parking lot of my work is now starting to chunk up!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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No forecast highs above the low 40s in the next week for PDX and SLE

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Remember the 30 year January average at PDX is a pathetic 47/35

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Salem thawed today. Got icy again once I got towards the edge of Silverton. Silver falls hwy was pretty bad still. Dense fog too.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yes i will adopt you, how old are you? lol.. :lol:

Me too ?

2013/2014 Winter season

Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th

Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th

Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th

Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th

Days below freezing: 5

Total Snowfall: 11 inches

Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches

Days With Snow: 3

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Bit more of an armchair psychologist take than I was going for, but fair enough.

 

Unreasonable expectations aside, if you look at the type of "winter" climo that is anogalous to 85+ degree days in relation to summer climo (maybe highs in the low 40s?) that kind of stuff has just as much a tendency to drag into early spring as 85+ warmth does into early fall.

 

As it stands, the type of winter wx people get excited over is much more anomalous from a climatological perspective than 85+ degree warmth in the summer. The kind of stuff we live and die by here has a much shorter seasonal shelf life in this climate. That's what makes it so special/unusual. And there are definitely a lot of warped expectations involved with it.

 

You have to admit, most of this is psychological.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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HRRR shows some precip rotating up from the south overnight and into tomorrow morning.   

 

Almost has to be frozen precip out here of some form... maybe elsewhere as well.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In spite of the bust last night I am itrigued as hell by what the weather has been doing lately.  I have noticed weak Fraser outflow has been going on for 3 days and some of that chilly air has actually seeped into the Puget Sound region now.  That is likely what kept Seattle so chilly today.  It 's like the low levels of the atmosphere are hell bent on making this a cold Janaury...at least so far.  The 18z GFS features what is probably the wildest blocking regime I have ever seen on a model.  No question of that run verifies well below normal temps will be the rule in the NW in spite of the main cold dropping down well east of us.  At any rate a block of that amplitude could easily have energy dig back toward us if it forms more of an omega.  The bottom line is...so far we are avoiding the Nino torch and may in fact end up with a pretty cold month.  Maybe we have finally seen the shakeup we have needed to get January back on track.  I guess we will know the answer to that in a few years...

 

If anyone is saying winter is over it depends what your definition of winter is.  If endless rain is the definition then maybe it is.  If your definition is cold (more proper IMO) than it probably isn't.

 

In case you're wondering...yes...I did go through a little tirade this morning although I knew we were sunk by about 11pm last night.  If you're interested it has now been 4 years since I've had a snowfall greater than 1.5".  4 (yes four) freeking years!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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