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Short story, Amazing the power a place can have when it comes to your health and how you feel. My wife has stage 4 breast cancer and when i take her there she feels better and is very happy to just si

We're not even 1 full day into 2016 and you're up to your usual routine of jumping on everything Jim posts. He can't even use the words "possible, potentially" or anything. He can't even look at any p

Intense rainbow not long ago over Battle Ground, Washington! I haven't seen one against a blue sky like that before either!    

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It wasn't a meridionally amplified block, though. Without the aforementioned -NAO block/NATL wave breaking, that winter would have been a zonal mess.

 

image.png

If you look at the time period that was cold for the PNW (late December - late January), it was definitely an amplified, full on -EPO/-PNA pattern for the most part.

 

Given the direction weather moves, I believe the Pacific pattern is much more important for the West than the NAO. In fact, the EPO has stronger correlation for cold for the country overall than either the AO or NAO.

Low. Solar.

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49 at SeaTac!

 

 

Going to break that magical 50 barrier!  

 

47 here.   

 

Time to plant the garden.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My lawn! Its been almost 3 weeks. 50 degrees here.

 

From a peak of almost 14 inches on the ground just 2 days ago to this now...

 

http://s23.postimg.org/5o776dnsr/2016_01_06_12_53_30.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's a bummer that we have the arctic air building to our North, but will be neglected due to a strong jet and Aluetian low. Our best hope is a relaxation of the jet, allowing cold air to spill south a bit, but that doesn't look likely anytime soon with the MJO over the Pacific.

 

In a typical weak ENSO year, we could count on a jet retraction and Aluetian high (downstream trough over west) as the MJO reignited over the IO and shifted into the Maritime region in a couple weeks, but this year is very different. Strong stagnant ENSO conditions (convection/upward motion over the Pacific and suppression/downward motion over the Maritime) will cause the MJO to break down as it approaches the Maritime region, which would benefit the west. The break down is due to upper levels not supporting the convective / thunderstorm nature of the propagating wave.

 

All in all, everything is working against us right now, but I suppose you never know!

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If you look at the time period that was cold for the PNW (late December - late January), it was definitely an amplified, full on -EPO/-PNA pattern for the most part.

 

Given the direction weather moves, I believe the Pacific pattern is much more important for the West than the NAO. In fact, the EPO has stronger correlation for cold for the country overall than either the AO or NAO.

Look at the meridional W/M flux integrals over the NPAC/Beaufort during that period. That ridge was flat-topped aloft via E-HEM +AAM. Without the NATL response, the result would have been something along the lines of 2014-15.

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Wow, just wait until this propagates poleward Some major s**t about to go down through the next 7+ weeks.image.jpeg

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Look at the meridional W/M flux integrals over the NPAC/Beaufort during that period. That ridge was flat-topped aloft via E-HEM +AAM. Without the NATL response, the result would have been something along the lines of 2014-15.

 

Ok...it's just that you said there was a "lack of NPAC blocking" in 1968-69, which was "overcome" by the -NAO. In Dec/Jan, the time period that mattered for the PNW, there was substantial NPAC blocking, and it was easily the stronger signal.

 

 

Low. Solar.

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Over a decade now for me. When I started I only had one kid, Dewey was barely two years old, Jim was ridiculously confident about the winter to come and Tim was mowing his lawn with kitchen shears.

 

So much has changed.

 

Happy birthday!

So that's why Tim hates the rain! Jim's way of hazing new forum members, forcing them to cut the grass on their lawn, rather than mow it.

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Ok...it's just that you said there was a "lack of NPAC blocking" in 1968-69, which was "overcome" by the -NAO. In Dec/Jan, the time period that mattered for the PNW, there was substantial NPAC blocking, and it was easily the stronger signal.

 

RaXhkf3WmQ.png

Anomalous ridges are not necessarily true "blocks", or complete anticyclonic breaks independent of antecedent flow.

 

That NPAC ridge, by itself, would have done nothing for the PNW. The reason upstream blocking was able to sustain, as it did, was thanks to downstream feedback.

 

I hope that clears things up somewhat.

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Honestly if it is really means normal status quo for us I am not sure why you are posting it here??? Not sure what your point is???

What the heck are you talking about? There's nothing "status quo" about what is now ongoing.

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Anomalous ridges are not necessarily true "blocks", or complete anticyclonic breaks independent of antecedent flow.

 

That NPAC ridge, by itself, would have done nothing for the PNW. The reason upstream blocking was able to sustain, as it did, was thanks to downstream feedback.

 

I hope that clears things up somewhat.

 

Not going to argue this with you, but this seems like semantics to me. If that's not NPAC blocking, I don't know what is. 

 

And regardless of the NAO, that's the kind of blocking that usually delivers cold air to the PNW.

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Low. Solar.

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Guest Winterdog

What the heck are you talking about? There's nothing "status quo" about what is now ongoing.

Status Quo for us means no snow. His point is unless the graphics indicate something different for us why did you post it. Most of us have no idea what the graphic means.

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What the heck are you talking about? There's nothing "status quo" about what is now ongoing.

 

Honestly if it is really means normal status quo for us I am not sure why you are posting it here???  Not sure what your point is???

Status Quo for us means no snow. His point is unless the graphics indicate something different for us why did you post it. Most of us have no idea what the graphic means.

 

 

 

I found it interesting.  It's been a long time since we've had GLAAM graphics posted here with sensational text affixed to it.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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What the heck are you talking about? There's nothing "status quo" about what is now ongoing.

Let me clarify a wee bit more... You post some graphic that most us have no clue what it is for or how to read... then post some OMG statement with no explanation what your are OMG'ing about, for or where it will impact. If it is not something that impacts our area then why in the OMF'ingG  are you posting it here?   If there is a correlation to our area then an explanation is needed.. Please! :)... OMG!  

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Not going to argue this with you, but this seems like semantics to me. If that's not NPAC blocking, I don't know what is.

 

And regardless of the NAO, that's the kind of blocking that usually delivers cold air to the PNW.

Yes, what occurred was "blocking", but without the aforementioned downstream/NATL feedback, that block would not have occurred in the manner it did, and the end result would probably have been some sort of +PNA look.

 

Does that make sense?

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This sums up the coming pattern. Off the charts (literally) Arctic blocking, but Pacific pattern means it's no good for the West. -AO is overrated.

This is hogwash. The NAM/NPAC are coupled, in this case (and in most cases).

 

Remember the bouts of NPAC blocking back in November/December, that ultimately failed to deliver? Yeah, you can thank the +PV/+NAM for that failure.

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Let me clarify a wee bit more... You post some graphic that most us have no clue what it is for or how to read... then post some OMG statement with no explanation what your are OMG'ing about, for or where it will impact. If it is not something that impacts our area then why in the OMF'ingG are you posting it here? If there is a correlation to our area then an explanation is needed.. Please! :)... OMG!

I explained it all a page or two back. What exactly do you want me to elaborate on?

 

:)

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This is hogwash. The NAM/NPAC are coupled, in this case (and in most cases).

 

Remember the bouts of NPAC blocking back in November/December, that ultimately failed to deliver? Yeah, you can thank the +PV/+NAM for that failure.

Nov/Dec featured weak/neutral -EPO, with neutral to occasionally moderate -PNA. It wasn't a great NPAC blocking pattern by any means.

 

All I can say is that I've closely followed the patterns that deliver to the PNW/West over the past 20+ years, and the AO/NAO simply don't have a strong correlation to cold here. Much stronger correlation to EPO/PNA...which often do function independently of the Atlantic-side blocking.

 

In general, we all want a blocky/slow NH pattern. That's what's most likely to deliver cold to the mid latitudes. And some of the best patterns have featured blocking across the indices AO/NAO/EPO. But a -EPO block is the one most important for the West (hard to get real cold here without upstream blocking).

 

-AO means somewhere in the NH is getting cold, but not necessarily our part of the country. Current pattern: Exhibit A.

Low. Solar.

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Nov/Dec featured weak/neutral -EPO, with neutral to occasionally moderate -PNA. It wasn't a great NPAC blocking pattern by any means.

The GOA block during late November was actually 4mb stronger at its peak than the January 1969 block at its peak.

 

All I can say is that I've closely followed the patterns that deliver to the PNW/West over the past 20+ years, and the AO/NAO simply don't have a strong correlation to cold here. Much stronger correlation to EPO/PNA...which often do function independently of the Atlantic-side blocking.

That's true at face value, but you're ignoring the bigger picture in favor of isolating a single domain in an interconnected system.

 

The NPAC and NAM are a single interactive entity. Whether or not the NAM works with/against the PNW in any given pattern is highly dependent on a slew of forcings and stochastic resonances that render the usage of the NAM sign alone useless.

 

There are cases where a +NAM is beneficial/preferred in the PNW, and there are cases where a -NAM is beneficial/preferred.

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Guest Winterdog

This Nino tied with the 97'-98' Nino per NWS spokesperson I just seen on KREM2 news here in Spoke...

Crap, now they will be going into extra innings! As an analog January 98 had a mini blast with a few teens here and December 98 wasn't bad at all. I had 10" of snow the week before Christmas and a few single digit lows. The rest of the winter sucked though.
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7:05 PM Water Vapor Analysis
12 hour Loop - http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+25
I see some potential interesting developments on Water Vapor. Arctic air is trying to push back against the unusual southerly flow up into British Columbia/Alberta that has been in place the past several days. Analyzing a 12 hour loop the southern push of arctic air and drier, colder northerly flow is holding back the southerly flow and even suppressing it southward now approaching central BC/AB. Arctic air is very dense, heavy, and sometimes can shove the warmer air mass southward quite efficiently especially since it is waning now. This might be something to keep an eye on with the deeply suppressed jet.

http://i.imgur.com/hFPG6ff.png

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7:05 PM Water Vapor Analysis

12 hour Loop - http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+25

I see some potential interesting developments on Water Vapor. Arctic air is trying to push back against the unusual southerly flow up into British Columbia/Alberta that has been in place the past several days. Analyzing a 12 hour loop the southern push of arctic air and drier, colder northerly flow is holding back the southerly flow and even suppressing it southward now approaching central BC/AB. Arctic air is very dense, heavy, and sometimes can shove the warmer air mass southward quite efficiently especially since it is waning now. This might be something to keep an eye on with the deeply suppressed jet.

http://i.imgur.com/hFPG6ff.png

Sure would be nice if we had some powerful computers to run statistical scenarios as to how air masses will evolve. That would definitely be a game changer!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Sure would be nice if we had some powerful computers to run statistical scenarios as to how air masses will evolve. That would definitely be a game changer!

To be clear this isn't me forecasting an arctic blast or expecting it to be colder than modeled. I am merely doing real-time analysis which often times proves to be very useful and sometimes does show new developments that models do not latch onto. Anything is possible.

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To be clear this isn't me forecasting an arctic blast or expecting it to be colder than modeled. I am merely doing real-time analysis which often times proves to be very useful and sometimes does show new developments that models do not latch onto. Anything is possible.

Expect the unexpected!

 

00z is running.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Expect the unexpected!

 

00z is running.

 

 

Split flow?   Some ridging?   Weak system on Saturday?   So many possibilities!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7:05 PM Water Vapor Analysis

12 hour Loop - http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+25

I see some potential interesting developments on Water Vapor. Arctic air is trying to push back against the unusual southerly flow up into British Columbia/Alberta that has been in place the past several days. Analyzing a 12 hour loop the southern push of arctic air and drier, colder northerly flow is holding back the southerly flow and even suppressing it southward now approaching central BC/AB. Arctic air is very dense, heavy, and sometimes can shove the warmer air mass southward quite efficiently especially since it is waning now. This might be something to keep an eye on with the deeply suppressed jet.

http://i.imgur.com/hFPG6ff.png

Nah, if you look at the loop it definitely looks like arctic air pushing more ESE than S.  Looks progged to move east to me.

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