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January 2016 in the PNW


crf450ish

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In spite of the bust last night I am itrigued as hell by what the weather has been doing lately.  I have noticed weak Fraser outflow has been going on for 3 days and some of that chilly air has actually seeped into the Puget Sound region now.  That is likely what kept Seattle so chilly today.  It 's like the low levels of the atmosphere are hell bent on making this a cold Janaury...at least so far.  The 18z GFS features what is probably the wildest blocking regime I have ever seen on a model.  No question of that run verifies well below normal temps will be the rule in the NW in spite of the main cold dropping down well east of us.  At any rate a block of that amplitude could easily have energy dig back toward us if it forms more of an omega.  The bottom line is...so far we are avoiding the Nino torch and may in fact end up with a pretty cold month.  Maybe we have finally seen the shakeup we have needed to get January back on track.  I guess we will know the answer to that in a few years...

 

If anyone is saying winter is over it depends what your definition of winter is.  If endless rain is the definition then maybe it is.  If your definition is cold (more proper IMO) than it probably isn't.

 

In case you're wondering...yes...I did go through a little tirade this morning although I knew we were sunk by about 11pm last night.  If you're interested it has now been 4 years since I've had a snowfall greater than 1.5".  4 (yes four) freeking years!

 

 

I figured it was bad there when I saw rain on the Tiger Mountain cam last night.

 

You should live in North Bend.   At least outflow is reliable as hell here.    It just stops at the Hwy 18 and I-90 interchange.     You get outflow at times but then you seem to be just like the rest of the Seattle area when it really matters.

 

8 inches of powdery snow here last night and no liquid precip at all today.   And very little melting today with offshore flow back in charge again.   You would be happier out here.    We still have just under a foot of snow on the ground and almost 30 inches of snow has fallen since the morning of December 17th.     

 

You just would not be able to work down there where you work now.   The Hwy 18 commute is absolutely brutal.   I-90 is so much better as a commute route.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In spite of the bust last night I am itrigued as hell by what the weather has been doing lately. I have noticed weak Fraser outflow has been going on for 3 days and some of that chilly air has actually seeped into the Puget Sound region now. That is likely what kept Seattle so chilly today. It 's like the low levels of the atmosphere are hell bent on making this a cold Janaury...at least so far. The 18z GFS features what is probably the wildest blocking regime I have ever seen on a model. No question of that run verifies well below normal temps will be the rule in the NW in spite of the main cold dropping down well east of us. At any rate a block of that amplitude could easily have energy dig back toward us if it forms more of an omega. The bottom line is...so far we are avoiding the Nino torch and may in fact end up with a pretty cold month. Maybe we have finally seen the shakeup we have needed to get January back on track. I guess we will know the answer to that in a few years...

 

If anyone is saying winter is over it depends what your definition of winter is. If endless rain is the definition then maybe it is. If your definition is cold (more proper IMO) than it probably isn't.

 

In case you're wondering...yes...I did go through a little tirade this morning although I knew we were sunk by about 11pm last night. If you're interested it has now been 4 years since I've had a snowfall greater than 1.5". 4 (yes four) freeking years!

It will possibly become 5 years

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Remember the 30 year January average at PDX is a pathetic 47/35

 

Those numbers are so absurd compared to what it should be.  It used to be much colder than that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It will possibly become 5 years

 

It might.  I think Phil is right about our time coming though.  I'm not saying it will be enough to kill the basic hatred I have developed toward our winter climate, but it should be quite a bit better.  At least this still isn't as bad as the s**t fest we had from 1997-98 through 2002-03.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It might.  I think Phil is right about our time coming though.  I'm not saying it will be enough to kill the basic hatred I have developed toward our winter climate, but it should be quite a bit better.  At least this still isn't as bad as the s**t fest we had from 1997-98 through 2002-03.

 

 

That crashing Nino failed to bring a change?   Don't count on it be so different in the next few years.  I will believe when I see it.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Did anyone do any good at all last night between Olympia and Bellingham?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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So I have just a trace of snow here at home, but the ground is frozen, but it's 33.2 degrees, but it's drizzling.

But apparently there is over an inch of snow at the lake house!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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So I have just a trace of snow here at home, but the ground is frozen, but it's 33.2 degrees, but it's drizzling.

But apparently there is over an inch of snow at the lake house!

 

 

but... but... but...  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Did anyone do any good at all last night between Olympia and Bellingham?

I had about a half inch of snow covering everything including the roads when I left for work at 4:15am. Just a trace in Smokey Point. Going north there was slight accumulation from there to Arlington. My work is in the north Stanwood area and is at higher elevation. Was about an inch there including the side roads. From there after picking up the work van I drove to Chehalis in Lewis Co. Some snow in Everett on the side of the road. Nothing in Seattle but 37 degree rain. Cooled the further south I went and once again saw a little snow in Olympia but was raining and 34 degrees. But when I neared my exit (82) in Lewis co there was nearly 2" on the ground and slush on I-5. My destination was several miles east of I-5 and it was a winter wonderland and very slick snow covered roads. Coming back was all rain and drizzle until I reached Arlington where it turned to snow (noonish timeframe) and by the time I got back to north Stanwood there was over an inch of snow, 32 degrees, slushy roads and moderate snow falling. It continued to snow off and on the rest of the day. That was the recap of my travel experiences for the day!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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It might.  I think Phil is right about our time coming though.  I'm not saying it will be enough to kill the basic hatred I have developed toward our winter climate, but it should be quite a bit better.  At least this still isn't as bad as the s**t fest we had from 1997-98 through 2002-03.

Your posts are funnier then hell sometimes. I know exactly how you feel.....its like that insurance commercial where the guy has a dollar bill at the end of fishing pole and is dangling it over the lady head. I spent many many many winters being let down as a kid>teenager>young adult....

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Snowing there again?

 

 

Looks like it on the radar... but not doing much of anything.    A few flurries.  

 

I see yellow on the radar approaching.   Maybe sleet?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If we extrapolate out to 500hrs I think we get a back door blast. The 18z looks pretty dry and full of "fake cold" potential. I expect DJ Droppin' to be posting cold pool updates soon. 

18z GFS continues to suggest we may see another cold shot(modified arctic air?) into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin beginning day 5 and continuing throughout the extended period. The GFS has been very consistent in showing this run after run. The result would be yet another prolonged cold pool and likely persistent east wind regime. The extracted data for Moses Lake, Pasco, and Pendleton shows this nicely. You can see how cold the area becomes again. Should this play out we'd see cold air flowing west through the Gorge again and would need to adjust temperatures downward for the Gorge/PDX accordingly.

 

Moses Lake http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2016010418&text=KMWH

Pasco http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2016010418&text=KPSC

Pendleton http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2016010418&text=KPDT

Important to note that the ECMWF is not as bullish with this only seeping some cooler air into the area.

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Looks like SLE may end up with a 35/31 day. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The middle paragraph is the crux of the more balanced numerical approach I am trying to get at. But yes, there is some weenie psychoanalysis going on too.

I suspect there's maybe a little weenieness deep down in Cliff Mass that contributed to his comments. Anything's possible from a guy who was so in love with the blob.

 

It was a dumb comment, but rooted somewhat in practicality given the "stick a fork in winter" reference generally refers to weather phenomenon which is a less than 10% of the time kind of proposition.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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18z GFS continues to suggest we may see another cold shot(modified arctic air?) into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin beginning day 5 and continuing throughout the extended period. The GFS has been very consistent in showing this run after run. The result would be yet another prolonged cold pool and likely persistent east wind regime. The extracted data for Moses Lake, Pasco, and Pendleton shows this nicely. You can see how cold the area becomes again. Should this play out we'd see cold air flowing west through the Gorge again and would need to adjust temperatures downward for the Gorge/PDX accordingly.

 

Moses Lake http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2016010418&text=KMWH

Pasco http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2016010418&text=KPSC

Pendleton http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2016010418&text=KPDT

Important to note that the ECMWF is not as bullish with this only seeping some cooler air into the area.

So an arctic blast isn't going to happen?

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So an arctic blast isn't going to happen?

 

Doesn't look like it.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18z GFS continues to suggest we may see another cold shot(modified arctic air?) into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin beginning day 5 and continuing throughout the extended period. The GFS has been very consistent in showing this run after run. The result would be yet another prolonged cold pool and likely persistent east wind regime. The extracted data for Moses Lake, Pasco, and Pendleton shows this nicely. You can see how cold the area becomes again. Should this play out we'd see cold air flowing west through the Gorge again and would need to adjust temperatures downward for the Gorge/PDX accordingly.

 

Moses Lake http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2016010418&text=KMWH

Pasco http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2016010418&text=KPSC

Pendleton http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2016010418&text=KPDT

Important to note that the ECMWF is not as bullish with this only seeping some cooler air into the area.

Not good... Dry for the entire run.

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Not good... Dry for the entire run.

Actually if we reentered a patten like we just had I would be ok with that. I enjoyed the cold clear days and had nearly a half inch of frost to give the effect of snow. Would sure beat endless rain. I am however disappointed that the models have steered away from modified arctic air invading. (Though there is still a sliver of hope from the ensembles)

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Your posts are funnier then hell sometimes. I know exactly how you feel.....its like that insurance commercial where the guy has a dollar bill at the end of fishing pole and is dangling it over the lady head. I spent many many many winters being let down as a kid>teenager>young adult....

 

The sad thing is I remember the good old days prior to 1991.  We had a lot of good events in the 1970s and 1980s.

 

On a micro climate level about the only good thing I can say about where I live now is we normally get our good snows going into Fraser River Arctic blasts which is when it really counts.  The other scenarios that are good for this area have simply refused to materialize in recent years.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Actually if we reentered a patten like we just had I would be ok with that. I enjoyed the cold clear days and had nearly a half inch of frost to give the effect of snow. Would sure beat endless rain. I am however disappointed that the models have steered away from modified arctic air invading. (Though there is still a sliver of hope from the ensembles)

 

I think the past several days have shown an Arctic outbreak isn't necessary to get pretty nippy.  Someone said even Green Lake was beginning to freeze.  If we get extreme blocking like some runs show and then the MJO enters a favorable phase for us it could get fun later in the month.

 

I agree...give me dry and cold as opposed to drippy, gloomy warm fronts which is what we will see if the blocking isn't over us or to the west.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I had about a half inch of snow covering everything including the roads when I left for work at 4:15am. Just a trace in Smokey Point. Going north there was slight accumulation from there to Arlington. My work is in the north Stanwood area and is at higher elevation. Was about an inch there including the side roads. From there after picking up the work van I drove to Chehalis in Lewis Co. Some snow in Everett on the side of the road. Nothing in Seattle but 37 degree rain. Cooled the further south I went and once again saw a little snow in Olympia but was raining and 34 degrees. But when I neared my exit (82) in Lewis co there was nearly 2" on the ground and slush on I-5. My destination was several miles east of I-5 and it was a winter wonderland and very slick snow covered roads. Coming back was all rain and drizzle until I reached Arlington where it turned to snow (noonish timeframe) and by the time I got back to north Stanwood there was over an inch of snow, 32 degrees, slushy roads and moderate snow falling. It continued to snow off and on the rest of the day. That was the recap of my travel experiences for the day!

 

At least you got to see a little something.  I swear the Central Puget Sound is cursed right now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GFS looks perfect for more home grown cold later in the week.  Any warming will be very brief this week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The first third of January is destined to end up 5 to 8 degrees below normal for many locations it appears.  Hopefully the block will remain and become more favorably placed to allow some Arctic air to enter our region a bit later.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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