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January 2016 in the PNW


crf450ish

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Well s**t, now you got me doubting myself...

 

Point is, January is pretty much half over.

Indeed. Time to start looking ahead to February.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Winter weenies over the N/W half of the continent won't like the 00z GFS. Classic NH response to +AAM propagation via previous MJO/intraseasonal pulse.

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00z GFS/WRF

Looks like chilly air mass into eastern Washington, cold, gusty east winds and cold pool for many days. I think it will be a bit colder than the GFS shows too. I will say with the weak low diving well south into California, and then strong low pressure holding well offshore to me this favors modified arctic air to move into eastern Washington, a strong prolonged cold pool and long duration east winds. The arctic air mass to dive into Montana will be absolutely huge, sprawling, a deep reservoir of bitter cold, so it will be hard for some of that to not slosh over the Canadian Rockies back into northeast Washington. This bares watching as we are way too close to a massive reservoir of arctic air.

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At least you got to see a little something.  I swear the Central Puget Sound is cursed right now.

I agree completely. My location does so well with fringe events usually but we haven't been able to get anything substantial. It's honestly pathetic.

 

Was reading for a couple of hours hoping that maybe i'd look outside and we'd have some sort of wintery precip but no. 35.4 here with cold rain. 

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N/W meaning Alaska?

Northwest halfof North America. I'm feeling bearish for the aforementioned region(s), regardless of the modeling right now.

 

The +AAM surge right now is off the charts ridiculous. This will almost certainly beef up the NPAC jet/vorticity and send a shot of mild air across the nation later in the month, followed by the typical -NAO/-NAM response which should take the reins back in February.

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Northwest halfof North America. I'm feeling bearish for the aforementioned region(s), regardless of the modeling right now.

 

The +AAM surge right now is off the charts ridiculous. This will almost certainly beef up the NPAC jet/vorticity and send a shot of mild air across the nation later in the month, followed by the typical -NAO/-NAM response which should take the reins back in February.

 

Sounds about right.  As long as we are in a El Nino state...odds don't favor the NW for extravagant winter weather.

 

For the coastal folks...that'll make next winter that much better (assuming we get to a La Nina).

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Sounds about right. As long as we are in a El Nino state...odds don't favor the NW for extravagant winter weather.

 

For the coastal folks...that'll make next winter that much better (assuming we get to a La Nina).

Funny thing is we just had a two year long Nina and never benefited from it. Curious how it would be different this time? Or is this a whole bunch of guessing?
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Funny thing is we just had a two year long Nina and never benefited from it. Curious how it would be different this time? Or is this a whole bunch of guessing?

Did your area totally miss out on November 2010 and January 2012.

 

Decreasing solar activity should help out odds tremendously in the next 4 or 5 years, assuming we see a La Nina or two or three. 

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Holy f**king s**t. Could we go inverse-thermocline like we did in 1997-98?

 

#MJO #constructiveinterference

 

image.gif

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Accumulated about 1 inch of snow here in the past 2 hours.  Still snowing lightly. 

 

 

Nice... the offshore flow here has really warmed up.   Its 38 this morning with a dewpoint of 31 and dry conditions.    Looks like the snow cover has dropped even overnight.   

 

You can see why there would be snow up there and warmer down here this morning:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/slp.12.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nice... the offshore flow here has really warmed up. Its 38 this morning with a dewpoint of 31 and dry conditions. Looks like the snow cover has dropped even overnight.

 

You can see why there would be snow up there and warmer down here this morning:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/slp.12.0000.gif

Just enough cold air hanging on here. The NAM actually handled this precip band much better than the WRF. I thought the WRF looked dry here.
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Snowing last couple hours just over a inch so far.

2013/2014 Winter season

Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th

Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th

Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th

Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th

Days below freezing: 5

Total Snowfall: 11 inches

Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches

Days With Snow: 3

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Yesterday:

 

PDX 36/31

SLE  35/31

EUG 33/30

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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32 and freezing rain/drizzle most of the night in Bellingham. I made an unexpected trip down my driveway and out into the street on my a** (steep driveway).

 

Unfortunately there was a witness, I'll be curious to see if I end up on YouTube.

 

A co-worker said it was snowing in the Custer area.

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roads are still a mess here, 32.

 

 

Surprised at how stubborn the cold air is in places.

 

Its up to 41 here and still rising.   Feels like spring out there.    Most of the snow here will be gone by tomorrow.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Did your area totally miss out on November 2010 and January 2012.

 

Decreasing solar activity should help out odds tremendously in the next 4 or 5 years, assuming we see a La Nina or two or three.

Did I miss out? In some ways yes. I have gotten an inch and a half or less of snow in the last 4 to 5 years. One of them was a snow that switched nearly immediately to freezing rain event that was more devastating than even enjoyable. Yes it got cold for a few days, yes there was a little snow but overall the results were somewhat similar to what I've gotten this year, except I did get a little more snow in One of the previous years you mentioned that ended up being covered in nearly a half inch of ice a few hours later.

 

In the end La Niña has done for this area. It hasn't really made a difference at this point in our overall winters here. Some of our Springs have been exceptionally cold and wet but no snow as it was just too late in the season for that to happen. I do know that parts of Oregon has scored and maybe a few places in Washington but overall the results have been anemic in the Puget Sound region. Snowwiz actually mentioned this last night.

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Still only 34 here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Surprised at how stubborn the cold air is in places.

 

Its up to 41 here and still rising. Feels like spring out there. Most of the snow here will be gone by tomorrow.

I am nearly directly west of the gorge from Portland. On the east slope of the cost range. I get a lot of cool banking air.
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Surprised at how stubborn the cold air is in places.

 

Its up to 41 here and still rising.   Feels like spring out there.    Most of the snow here will be gone by tomorrow.

Heat wave! Still only 33 here with a frozen chunky parking lot at work.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Freezing rain up here in Bellingham. Pregnant wife almost beefed it walking outside this morning

Yikes! She might need to wear cleats for a few hours! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Obviously the 12z GFS was worthless. Not one comment on it!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12Z Canadian sure goes back to a seriously wet pattern later next week. I believe the ECMWF weeklies also showed this type of a pattern.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It wouldn't surprise me at all if we got some rain on the 15th of this month. Wouldn't be the first mid January with measurable precipitation and it's just been one of those years where anything is possible. Have to keep a close eye on it.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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The 12 GFS is close to an arctic blast in the long range.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just got done loading the work van for tomorrow and started getting wet in the process, 33 degree rain is so awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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