Deweydog Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Are you sure?Well , now you got me doubting myself... Point is, January is pretty much half over. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well s**t, now you got me doubting myself... Point is, January is pretty much half over.Indeed. Time to start looking ahead to February. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Winter weenies over the N/W half of the continent won't like the 00z GFS. Classic NH response to +AAM propagation via previous MJO/intraseasonal pulse. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 00z GFS/WRFLooks like chilly air mass into eastern Washington, cold, gusty east winds and cold pool for many days. I think it will be a bit colder than the GFS shows too. I will say with the weak low diving well south into California, and then strong low pressure holding well offshore to me this favors modified arctic air to move into eastern Washington, a strong prolonged cold pool and long duration east winds. The arctic air mass to dive into Montana will be absolutely huge, sprawling, a deep reservoir of bitter cold, so it will be hard for some of that to not slosh over the Canadian Rockies back into northeast Washington. This bares watching as we are way too close to a massive reservoir of arctic air. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted January 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Winter weenies over the N/W half of the continent won't like the 00z GFS. Classic NH response to +AAM propagation via previous MJO/intraseasonal pulse.N/W meaning Alaska? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 31 with a DP of 31 here. I'm thinking maybe the band of moisture coming north might just fall as snow here. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 At least you got to see a little something. I swear the Central Puget Sound is cursed right now.I agree completely. My location does so well with fringe events usually but we haven't been able to get anything substantial. It's honestly pathetic. Was reading for a couple of hours hoping that maybe i'd look outside and we'd have some sort of wintery precip but no. 35.4 here with cold rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 At least you got to see a little something. I swear the Central Puget Sound is cursed right now.Lots of missed oppurtunites. Just when I thought maybe this climate was making a turn for the better! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 N/W meaning Alaska?Northwest halfof North America. I'm feeling bearish for the aforementioned region(s), regardless of the modeling right now. The +AAM surge right now is off the charts ridiculous. This will almost certainly beef up the NPAC jet/vorticity and send a shot of mild air across the nation later in the month, followed by the typical -NAO/-NAM response which should take the reins back in February. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 WRF shows a sunny weekend ahead. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Northwest halfof North America. I'm feeling bearish for the aforementioned region(s), regardless of the modeling right now. The +AAM surge right now is off the charts ridiculous. This will almost certainly beef up the NPAC jet/vorticity and send a shot of mild air across the nation later in the month, followed by the typical -NAO/-NAM response which should take the reins back in February. Sounds about right. As long as we are in a El Nino state...odds don't favor the NW for extravagant winter weather. For the coastal folks...that'll make next winter that much better (assuming we get to a La Nina). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 What drought? http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2016/01/californias-water-situation-improving.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Sounds about right. As long as we are in a El Nino state...odds don't favor the NW for extravagant winter weather. For the coastal folks...that'll make next winter that much better (assuming we get to a La Nina).Funny thing is we just had a two year long Nina and never benefited from it. Curious how it would be different this time? Or is this a whole bunch of guessing? Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Funny thing is we just had a two year long Nina and never benefited from it. Curious how it would be different this time? Or is this a whole bunch of guessing?Did your area totally miss out on November 2010 and January 2012. Decreasing solar activity should help out odds tremendously in the next 4 or 5 years, assuming we see a La Nina or two or three. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Nice little band of snow pushing into southern BC currently. Even Victoria is reporting snow, for the first time in a long time it would seem. 31.6F here with a coating on all surfaces. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Holy f**king s**t. Could we go inverse-thermocline like we did in 1997-98? #MJO #constructiveinterference Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Accumulated about 1 inch of snow here in the past 2 hours. Still snowing lightly. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Accumulated about 1 inch of snow here in the past 2 hours. Still snowing lightly. Nice... the offshore flow here has really warmed up. Its 38 this morning with a dewpoint of 31 and dry conditions. Looks like the snow cover has dropped even overnight. You can see why there would be snow up there and warmer down here this morning: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/slp.12.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Nice... the offshore flow here has really warmed up. Its 38 this morning with a dewpoint of 31 and dry conditions. Looks like the snow cover has dropped even overnight. You can see why there would be snow up there and warmer down here this morning: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/slp.12.0000.gifJust enough cold air hanging on here. The NAM actually handled this precip band much better than the WRF. I thought the WRF looked dry here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Snowing last couple hours just over a inch so far. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Currently 32 degrees and cloudy here. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yesterday: PDX 36/31SLE 35/31EUG 33/30 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 32 and freezing rain/drizzle most of the night in Bellingham. I made an unexpected trip down my driveway and out into the street on my a** (steep driveway). Unfortunately there was a witness, I'll be curious to see if I end up on YouTube. A co-worker said it was snowing in the Custer area. 2 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 roads are still a mess here, 32. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 roads are still a mess here, 32. Surprised at how stubborn the cold air is in places. Its up to 41 here and still rising. Feels like spring out there. Most of the snow here will be gone by tomorrow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Did your area totally miss out on November 2010 and January 2012. Decreasing solar activity should help out odds tremendously in the next 4 or 5 years, assuming we see a La Nina or two or three.Did I miss out? In some ways yes. I have gotten an inch and a half or less of snow in the last 4 to 5 years. One of them was a snow that switched nearly immediately to freezing rain event that was more devastating than even enjoyable. Yes it got cold for a few days, yes there was a little snow but overall the results were somewhat similar to what I've gotten this year, except I did get a little more snow in One of the previous years you mentioned that ended up being covered in nearly a half inch of ice a few hours later. In the end La Niña has done for this area. It hasn't really made a difference at this point in our overall winters here. Some of our Springs have been exceptionally cold and wet but no snow as it was just too late in the season for that to happen. I do know that parts of Oregon has scored and maybe a few places in Washington but overall the results have been anemic in the Puget Sound region. Snowwiz actually mentioned this last night. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Still only 34 here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Surprised at how stubborn the cold air is in places. Its up to 41 here and still rising. Feels like spring out there. Most of the snow here will be gone by tomorrow.I am nearly directly west of the gorge from Portland. On the east slope of the cost range. I get a lot of cool banking air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Freezing rain up here in Bellingham. Pregnant wife almost beefed it walking outside this morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Surprised at how stubborn the cold air is in places. Its up to 41 here and still rising. Feels like spring out there. Most of the snow here will be gone by tomorrow.Heat wave! Still only 33 here with a frozen chunky parking lot at work. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Freezing rain up here in Bellingham. Pregnant wife almost beefed it walking outside this morningYikes! She might need to wear cleats for a few hours! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well, I see the 6z ensembles sure took a turn for the worst. That's always encouraging.Hey its' January ... What else should we expect. Cheer up it will look awesome in late February and March. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Hey its' January ... What else should we expect. Cheer up it will look awesome in late February and March. Late February and March? Nonsense! 43F and rain in March and April FTW! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Obviously the 12z GFS was worthless. Not one comment on it! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 12Z Canadian sure goes back to a seriously wet pattern later next week. I believe the ECMWF weeklies also showed this type of a pattern. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 It wouldn't surprise me at all if we got some rain on the 15th of this month. Wouldn't be the first mid January with measurable precipitation and it's just been one of those years where anything is possible. Have to keep a close eye on it. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 The 12 GFS is close to an arctic blast in the long range. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Just got done loading the work van for tomorrow and started getting wet in the process, 33 degree rain is so awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 The 12 GFS is close to an arctic blast in the long range.Looks like a Whatcom county/ southern BC snow storm special. Too bad the GFS is just worthless in the long range. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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