January 2016 in the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

2" of nice light snow here this morning.  First time this year it hasn't been mashed potato thick.  Pleasantly surprised that it is still snowing lightly here. 

 

Edit.   WRF suggests maybe another inch here before things warm up early afternoon. 

[crf450ish]

Just got done loading the work van for tomorrow and started getting wet in the process, 33 degree rain is so awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I take it from your sarcasm that your really angry inside? I know the feeling...

[crf450ish]

Up to 31 here today, I am actually hoping it rises to 35 or so, so the stupid ice dams on my roof will melt and make it a little easier to remove. Those ice dams can turn into a major issue

[stuffradio]

12Z Weenie alert!

[MossMan]

I take it from your sarcasm that your really angry inside? I know the feeling...

Yes.

[HighlandExperience]

12Z Weenie alert!

How many times will we be teased?

[stuffradio]

How many times will we be teased?

Carrots man, think about the carrots!

[Gradient Keeper]

GEM is colder Gorge/Columbia Basin. Both GFS/GEM have a bitter air mass dropping south though BC/AB by day 6-7. Whenever you have that massive reservoir of arctic air that close you have to pay real close attention to it and with the jet suppressed well into California anything is possible. It won't take much adjustment to the 500mb pattern to send us into the deep freeze and the 12z GFS 8-14day Composite Analogs shows an ideal setup for it. 12z ECMWF a touch colder 850s over eastern Washington, but as expected the first shot of arctic air slides well to the east. A lot of variability after day 5-7. Chance of a full-on blast is of course tiny. Chance at a back door shot into eastern Washington 15-20% chance. Chance of nothing interesting just chilly weather 70-80%

[Gradient Keeper]

Looking at Mesoanalysis 925mb temps I see a bit of a new weak cold pool trying to develop right now over eastern Gorge/Columbia Basin as temps are in the mid to upper 20s with Fog reported in many locations.

[epiceast]

12Z Canadian sure goes back to a seriously wet pattern later next week. I believe the ECMWF weeklies also showed this type of a pattern.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

What would the snow levels be here? Super high or reasonable?

[Gradient Keeper]

What would the snow levels be here? Super high or reasonable?

A billion feet give or take a few inches. Intensely deep bitter cold hanging to the north, so we can rule out nothing.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016010512/gem_T850_nwus_41.png

[epiceast]

A billion feet give or take a few inches. Intensely deep bitter cold hanging to the north, so we can rule out nothing.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016010512/gem_T850_nwus_41.png

I was talking about here on the Palouse... Anyway looks pretty marginal to me a bit further south and I get a lot of cold rain/wet snow.

[TT-SEA]

I think the ECMWF will be right about next week.   Much more consistent.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016010512!!chart.gif

[luvssnow_spokane]

12Z Weenie alert!

Lol... --- saying it now. Won't happen. I no longer eat carrots.

[stuffradio]

Lol... --- saying it now. Won't happen. I no longer eat carrots.

Didn't you know non-vegans die sooner?

[Brennan]

Didn't you know non-vegans die sooner?

Veganism is a 21st century dietary experiment. I'm no longer eating carrots either! Especially not 18z carrots

[Jesse]

Looks like another high in the 30s for PDX today.

 

Some really cold members on the 12z ensembles in the mid range...

 

Regardless of whether or not we get a big blast, it looks like it will be nice and chilly overall for at least the next 7-10 days.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I think the ECMWF will be right about next week.   Much more consistent.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016010512!!chart.gif

only becausr its dry.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS in 1 hour 49 minutes!

[Front Ranger]

I think the ECMWF will be right about next week.   Much more consistent.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016010512!!chart.gif

 

I agree with you, but I also think it's pretty funny how hour 240 is the only frame you ever post from the Euro.

[Gradient Keeper]

I think the ECMWF will be right about next week.   Much more consistent.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016010512!!chart.gif

There is no doubt the ECMWF has been quite consistent the past 4-6 runs. GFS has been consistent as well with its chillier solution, although trended a bit towards the ECMWF yesterday, or a blend of the two models perhaps. GEM has been less consistent, but not to a great extent. The 11z Uruguayan River Goat crossing Model however has been pure s**t. Just completely unreliable.

[Jesse]

I agree with you, but I also think it's pretty funny how hour 240 is the only frame you ever post from the Euro.

As Dewey has said before, at this point the models should just initialize at day 10.

[Phil]

I think the ECMWF will be right about next week. Much more consistent.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016010512!!chart.gif

That pattern looks awfully familiar. Let's try something new this winter..please.

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z GFS in 1 hour 49 minutes!

18z was built by Doctor evil.

[TT-SEA]

only becausr its dry.

 

 

No... because its been consistent and its the ECMWF.   I also posted a map of a very wet Canadian run.   I would bet on the ECMWF though.

[TT-SEA]

I agree with you, but I also think it's pretty funny how hour 240 is the only frame you ever post from the Euro.

 

 

OK... here is the frame at 168 hours.   Same thing.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016010512!!chart.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS 8-14 Day Composite Analogs

I am putting all, and I do mean all of my eggs(hard boiled) in this basket right here. Hard to hate this pattern. Plenty of chilly/cold analogs. Uh, I'll take January 1979 thanks. The Correlation score hovering near 90% is not superb, but this is all we have right now to give us any real optimism quite frankly. IF by some remote chance we see models trending this way in the coming days I will admittedly and proudly pee my pants.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

[stuffradio]

12z GFS 8-14 Day Composite Analogs

I am putting all, and I do mean all of my eggs(hard boiled) in this basket right here. Hard to hate this pattern. Plenty of chilly/cold analogs. Uh, I'll take January 1979 thanks. The Correlation score hovering near 90% is not superb, but this is all we have right now to give us any real optimism quite frankly. IF by some remote chance we see models trending this way in the coming days I will admittedly and proudly pee my pants.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

How many eggs do you have?

[luvssnow_spokane]

How many eggs do you have?

I think only 1.... Hmmm

[Gradient Keeper]

How many eggs do you have?

 

 

I think only 1.... Hmmm

Down to 5 now....

 

12z ECMWF Ensembles 850mb mean temp looks like a fairly deep cold pool for Columbia Basin.

[Gradient Keeper]

more eggs than marbles, it would seem

2 marbles..

[Jesse]

I suspect there's maybe a little weenieness deep down in Cliff Mass that contributed to his comments. Anything's possible from a guy who was so in love with the blob.

 

It was a dumb comment, but rooted somewhat in practicality given the "stick a fork in winter" reference generally refers to weather phenomenon which is a less than 10% of the time kind of proposition.

 

Yeah, I'm trying to think of a warm season analogy. Maybe sticking a fork in summer as our window for 100+ degree weather starts to close in mid August? Obviously beyond that point we are still capable of lots of summery weather, just not the really extreme stuff. 

 

The same would go for the mid-February time frame for the cold season. Beyond that point we aren't capable of the most extreme winter weather, but weather that would fall under the category of what we "normally" see in winter is still possible for another 1-2 months.

 

Either way, the sticking a fork thing is kind of silly no matter what season you are doing it with, IMO. Especially this early into said season. Every season will eventually fork itself anyway, no matter what we do. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS 8-14 Day Composite Analogs

I am putting all, and I do mean all of my eggs(hard boiled) in this basket right here. Hard to hate this pattern. Plenty of chilly/cold analogs. Uh, I'll take January 1979 thanks. The Correlation score hovering near 90% is not superb, but this is all we have right now to give us any real optimism quite frankly. IF by some remote chance we see models trending this way in the coming days I will admittedly and proudly pee my pants.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

I should mention 12z GEM operational was a near match to this pattern too.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Yeah, I'm trying to think of a warm season analogy. Maybe sticking a fork in summer as our window for 100+ degree weather starts to close in mid August? Obviously beyond that point we are still capable of lots of summery weather, just not the really extreme stuff. 

 

Maybe not the same but I still remember people saying we were done with the 90's at the end of last July.

 

I think people just get angsty at any prediction that goes against their preferences... human nature.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, I'm trying to think of a warm season analogy. Maybe sticking a fork in summer as our window for 100+ degree weather starts to close in mid August? Obviously beyond that point we are still capable of lots of summery weather, just not the really extreme stuff. 

 

The same would go for the mid-February time frame for the cold season. Beyond that point we aren't capable of the most extreme winter weather, but weather that would fall under the category of what we "normally" see in winter is still possible for another 1-2 months.

 

Either way, the sticking a fork thing is kind of silly no matter what season you are doing it with, IMO. Especially this early into said season. Every season will eventually fork itself anyway, no matter what we do. 

 

At that point it's just a matter of sensationalizing climo.  Everyone knows our window for the extremes ends fairly early in February, so taking a stab in early January during a strong nino is probably as educated as you can get given we're right about the point where most ninos tend to get pretty sleepy around these parts.  He would have been better off just highlighting that, but again, I don't really follow the guy other than what people post here about him.  I don't know his tendencies aside from the blob.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Everyone is always sticking a fork in Winter(often prematurely), but what about a spoon? Do we have to use real stainless steel eating utensils, or just cheap plastic stuff we'd find at Safeway? Could someone hypothetically stick a spoon in Winter? Would this be possible? Would that lessen the blow to Winter itself? The Fork would be a direct hit deep into the heart of Winter at several points(or more depend on how many tines there are with the fork itself) the 500mb pattern, surface, and teleconnections likely killing further chances, a but a spoon can tend to slide a little off to the side when inserting it leaving room for error and thus renewed chances of Winter Weather for awhile. A butter knife would only temporary poke holes in it if you were to stab directly downward at Winter leaving a lot of variability. A spatula would just be silly might flatten ridging down for a bit. A whisk? That is getting carried away now. Based on this I might stick a spoon in Winter by day 10 if the ECMWF is right with its butt ugly pattern. MAYBE even a spoon/fork combo, more heavily leaning towards the spoon though because this El Nino has been wacky and wonky as hell.

[crf450ish]

Just found out I could potentially be working the next 6-8 months in Pocatello, ID ...starting @ the end of this month. Wonder what kind of weather they experience during strong Nino Pattern.  

[crf450ish]

Everyone is always sticking a fork in Winter(often prematurely), but what about a spoon? Do we have to use real stainless steel eating utensils, or just cheap plastic stuff we'd find at Safeway? Could someone hypothetically stick a spoon in Winter? Would this be possible? Would that lessen the blow to Winter itself? The Fork would be a direct hit deep into the heart of Winter at several points(or more depend on how many tines there are with the fork itself) the 500mb pattern, surface, and teleconnections likely killing further chances, a but a spoon can tend to slide a little off to the side when inserting it leaving room for error and thus renewed chances of Winter Weather for awhile. A butter knife would only temporary poke holes in it if you were to stab directly downward at Winter leaving a lot of variability. A spatula would just be silly might flatten ridging down for a bit. A whisk? That is getting carried away now. Based on this I might stick a spoon in Winter by day 10 if the ECMWF is right with its butt ugly pattern. MAYBE even a spoon/fork combo, more heavily leaning towards the spoon though because this El Nino has been wacky and wonky as hell.

Whatever it takes for an Omega block to position itself in the higher latitudes so that we may have our arctic blast we all have been craving for many years. 

[Jesse]

PDX up to 40. I guess all good things must come to an end. :/

 

Still only 36 up here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z