January 2016 in the PNW

[Jesse]

At that point it's just a matter of sensationalizing climo.  Everyone knows our window for the extremes ends fairly early in February, so taking a stab in early January during a strong nino is probably as educated as you can get given we're right about the point where most ninos tend to get pretty sleepy around these parts.  He would have been better off just highlighting that, but again, I don't really follow the guy other than what people post here about him.  I don't know his tendencies aside from the blob.  

 

Sensationalizing climo is the best way to describe it.

 

I would argue mid-February is a more definitive cutoff than early February, but that is mostly dependent on what you are looking for. Lengthy stretches of highs below freezing and snow sticking around several days is historically quite possible through about Valentine's Day, after which the increasing sun angle really starts taking a toll on the ability to achieve multiple days of sub-freezing highs, etc. Much like the decreasing sun angle starts making it more difficult to achieve long stretches of very hot weather after August 15 or thereabouts.

 

As far as REALLY cold stuff (lows in the single digits to sub-zero and highs in the teens) early February would appear to be some sort of cutoff, but that kind of stuff is so rare anway it's hard to pinpoint whether that cutoff is indeed part of climo or just due to the timing of super cold airmasses over the years. Events like 1950 and 1989 left a pretty big mark on the record books so everything after that definitely looks a lot milder, and probably makes February 2-4 look like a much starker wall than it may appear after several more decades of record keeping. But with our gradually warming climate, who knows!

[crf450ish]

I've heard the story from family about the freak snowstorm in March of 89' around the Puyallup area about a dozen and a half times. Can anyone here elaborate on their memories of this event? It's been told to me so many times because thats when my uncle got stuck in a ditch due to snow trying to get to Good Samaritan Hospital...

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS wasn't all that spectacular or cold. Our Drunk Uncle was far too sober this run which we don't like to see. He clearly has been going to his AA meetings and needs to get back to hitting the bottle if we're to have any chance at models turning bitterly cold and snowy.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS looks much more like the ECMWF than the 12Z GFS.  More evidence that nothing really cold will be happening next week.

 

Starting to feel like our window of opportunity is passing with a strong Nino in place.  

 

Of course the pattern is just strange enough to keep some small hope alive down the road.

[MossMan]

I've heard the story from family about the freak snowstorm in March of 89' around the Puyallup area about a dozen and a half times. Can anyone here elaborate on their memories of this event? It's been told to me so many times because thats when my uncle got stuck in a ditch due to snow trying to get to Good Samaritan Hospital...

Had a foot of snow and no school for a few days up here in Arlington.

[Bryant]

18z

What about it? Nothing to see

[Timmy]

Only 34.5 here today. Pretty annoying my driveway is a disaster

[James Jones]

Sensationalizing climo is the best way to describe it.

 

I would argue mid-February is a more definitive cutoff than early February, but that is mostly dependent on what you are looking for. Lengthy stretches of highs below freezing and snow sticking around several days is historically quite possible through about Valentine's Day, after which the increasing sun angle really starts taking a toll on the ability to achieve multiple days of sub-freezing highs, etc. Much like the decreasing sun angle starts making it more difficult to achieve long stretches of very hot weather after August 15 or thereabouts.

 

As far as REALLY cold stuff (lows in the single digits to sub-zero and highs in the teens) early February would appear to be some sort of cutoff, but that kind of stuff is so rare anway it's hard to pinpoint whether that cutoff is indeed part of climo or just due to the timing of super cold airmasses over the years. Events like 1950 and 1989 left a pretty big mark on the record books so everything after that definitely looks a lot milder, and probably makes February 2-4 look like a much starker wall than it may appear after several more decades of record keeping. But with our gradually warming climate, who knows!

The drop-off after very early February is far less pronounced if you look at the downtown records. Their February record low of 7 was set on multiple dates, including the 12th in 1884, and they hit 10 as late as the 26th. Hard to know how much of the "wall" in the airport records is happenstance from a relatively short period of record, and how much of it is due to our slowly warming climate making it very difficult to get big, prolonged freezes after the first few days of the month. February 2014 argues that there's some happenstance in there, since from a high temp perspective, it was later than any other similar event in the airport era.

[chopper 918]

18Z GFS looks much more like the ECMWF than the 12Z GFS.  More evidence that nothing really cold will be happening next week.

 

Starting to feel like our window of opportunity is passing with a strong Nino in place.  

 

Of course the pattern is just strange enough to keep some small hope alive down the road.

It's January 5...

 

I seem to remember you saying that there was nothing to be interested in within the foreseeable future as you thought we were in for a long dry inversion period after our little snow event on Sunday, the 27th too.  We all know what happened a week later...

[TT-SEA]

It's January 5...

 

I seem to remember you saying that there was nothing to be interested in within the foreseeable future as you thought we were in for a long dry inversion period after our little snow event on Sunday, the 27th too. We all know what happened a week later...

Yep. A good cold pool brings surprises. And it could happen again.

[chopper 918]

Yep. A good cold pool brings surprises. And it could happen again.

This super nino is acting nothing like a regular nino, so I'd say nothing is off the table and models nor forecasters can reliably predict what is going to happen a week from now let alone the rest of the winter.

[Jesse]

This super nino is acting nothing like a regular nino, so I'd say nothing is off the table and models nor forecasters can reliably predict what is going to happen a week from now let alone the rest of the winter.

With the exception of Cliff Mass.

[TT-SEA]

This super nino is acting nothing like a regular nino, so I'd say nothing is off the table and models nor forecasters can reliably predict what is going to happen a week from now let alone the rest of the winter.

Looks like it's starting to act like a Nino.

[Deweydog]

Is this nino really acting all that strangely?

[TT-SEA]

Is this nino really acting all that strangely?

 

I know the other strong Ninos in history also had periods of active/cold weather.

[Jesse]

Is this nino really acting all that strangely?

 

I certainly didn't see the extremely wet December with record rainfall and record mountain snowfall coming. But early activity is indeed a Nino calling card. I would venture that this Nino's early activity has been more active than normal, though.

[Jesse]

The drop-off after very early February is far less pronounced if you look at the downtown records. Their February record low of 7 was set on multiple dates, including the 12th in 1884, and they hit 10 as late as the 26th. Hard to know how much of the "wall" in the airport records is happenstance from a relatively short period of record, and how much of it is due to our slowly warming climate making it very difficult to get big, prolonged freezes after the first few days of the month. February 2014 argues that there's some happenstance in there, since from a high temp perspective, it was later than any other similar event in the airport era.

 

Well said. Solar insolation and historical climo would favor mid-February over very early February for a "winter extremes" cutoff.

 

2014 helped make that case.

[Gradient Keeper]

Speaking of cold pools....

Looking at 3 PM Observations across the Columbia Basin shows that Pendleton at 26 with Ice Fog and Hermiston 29 Fog are the only holdouts with cold air trapped at the surface. Ephrata is 37, Moses Lake 31, Pasco 31 have mixed out unfortunately it appears. Cold air is still quite deep and stubborn in/up over the central Gorge with Three Corner Rock 3450' now 24 degrees and Augspurger 2990' at 23. Trout Lake is also cold at 26 degrees. 925mb charts shows the warm air mass putting the final nail in the coffin for the cold pool unfortunately. I really hate warm, well mixed air masses during Winter. Might be time to get the spoons out.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/925mb/925mb_sf.gif?1452036852450

[Gradient Keeper]

Let's hope we end up with a decent cold pool after day 5-7 most models show we will.

[Deweydog]

I certainly didn't see the extremely wet December with record rainfall and record mountain snowfall coming. But early activity is indeed a Nino calling card. I would venture that this Nino's early activity has been more active than normal, though.

 

Pretty subjective analysis.  Sunday's rogue little goofball aside, things have quieted down considerably since just after Jesus's birthday.  Split flow with more to come and a general +PNA configuration.  I'm just wondering what people are hanging these altered expectations on?  

 

Makes me wonder how people would be approaching things if it were a strong nina and the pattern flip were reversed...

[Deweydog]

Speaking of cold pools....

Looking at 3 PM Observations across the Columbia Basin shows that Pendleton at 26 with Ice Fog and Hermiston 29 Fog are the only holdouts with cold air trapped at the surface. Ephrata is 37, Moses Lake 31, Pasco 31 have mixed out unfortunately it appears. Cold air is still quite deep and stubborn in/up over the central Gorge with Three Corner Rock 3450' now 24 degrees and Augspurger 2990' at 23. Trout Lake is also cold at 26 degrees. 925mb charts shows the warm air mass putting the final nail in the coffin for the cold pool unfortunately. I really hate warm, well mixed air masses during Winter. Might be time to get the spoons out.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/925mb/925mb_sf.gif?1452036852450

 

Reminds me of when several of us pooled our money and had our roommate jump in the pool at our apartment complex during the January 1998 event.  That was a cold pool but he made $20.  Pays to be a drunk, kids!  

[Parksvillewx]

Been snowing here most of the day. About 1" of slop. Looks nice in all the trees tho.

[Jesse]

Pretty subjective analysis. Sunday's rogue little goofball aside, things have quieted down considerably since just after Jesus's birthday. Split flow with more to come and a general +PNA configuration. I'm just wondering what people are hanging these altered expectations on?

 

Makes me wonder how people would be approaching things if it were a strong nina and the pattern flip were reversed...

I never said we weren't quieting down. Just that December was a more active early Nino period than usual. Nothing more nothing less.

[Front Ranger]

Sensationalizing climo is the best way to describe it.

 

I would argue mid-February is a more definitive cutoff than early February, but that is mostly dependent on what you are looking for. Lengthy stretches of highs below freezing and snow sticking around several days is historically quite possible through about Valentine's Day, after which the increasing sun angle really starts taking a toll on the ability to achieve multiple days of sub-freezing highs, etc. Much like the decreasing sun angle starts making it more difficult to achieve long stretches of very hot weather after August 15 or thereabouts.

 

As far as REALLY cold stuff (lows in the single digits to sub-zero and highs in the teens) early February would appear to be some sort of cutoff, but that kind of stuff is so rare anway it's hard to pinpoint whether that cutoff is indeed part of climo or just due to the timing of super cold airmasses over the years. Events like 1950 and 1989 left a pretty big mark on the record books so everything after that definitely looks a lot milder, and probably makes February 2-4 look like a much starker wall than it may appear after several more decades of record keeping. But with our gradually warming climate, who knows!

 

Good post.

 

The February 2011 PNW event was way colder than anything in that time frame for many years, for example. And around here, the November 2014 event was easily colder than anything else in that time frame on record. Extreme events can still alter the record books at any time, but definitely don't reflect the "median" of cold event potential.

[Deweydog]

I never said we weren't quieting down. Just that December was a more active early Nino period than usual. Nothing more nothing less.

 

It was definitely a wet month.  I remember it vividly.  

[Brennan]

Been snowing here most of the day. About 1" of slop. Looks nice in all the trees tho.

It’s been raining between 33-36* here all day after a nice layer of frozen rain coated everything early this morning. 

[ShawniganLake]

33F/ 31F for a high/low here today.  2" of snow transitioned to about 1/8" of sleet just before noon. 

[High Desert Mat]

Rob lets not talk about spoons please on January 5th. Its really annoying when people right after the new year start talking about winter cancel. Man I wish I could see the future like most of you.

 

Side note, didnt get above 28 today here and already dropping. Was 17 last night. All cold pool is not gone yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

Rob lets not talk about spoons please on January 5th. Its really annoying when people right after the new year start talking about winter cancel. Man I wish I could see the future like most of you.

 

Side note, didnt get above 28 today here and already dropping. Was 17 last night. All cold pool is not gone yet.

It's on its last legs though.

[Bryant]

Rob lets not talk about spoons please on January 5th. Its really annoying when people right after the new year start talking about winter cancel. Man I wish I could see the future like most of you.

 

Side note, didnt get above 28 today here and already dropping. Was 17 last night. All cold pool is not gone yet.

Lots of material out there for reading the models. Ask questions on here and someone will help you

[crf450ish]

My good friend in Tacoma says not once in his life has he ever looked outside and gotten down about the weather, rather its raining, sunshine, snow, sleet, hail, thunder, lighting etc. I envy him...

[Guest Winterdog]

I just took a look at the stats for this past coldish spell.  I have had only one daily maximum above 40F since December 23rd and eleven freezes in that 2 week stretch with 4 readings in the teens.  Pretty good for a low profile, localized, fake cold event at a low elevation western Washington site.  That is aside from the lack of snow of course.

[TT-SEA]

Cold is back by Saturday... too late for my snow cover though.  

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/slp.84.0000.gif

[crf450ish]

Can someone please analyze this and tell me what it means for us?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Image source: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1139-18-19-plainslakes-cutter/?p=107791)

[Gradient Keeper]

Cold is back by Saturday... too late for my snow cover though.  

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/slp.84.0000.gif

This is much sooner from previous runs and looks to only intensify after day 4-5.... This run brings colder air into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin MUCH sooner than any previous run before Saturday now. Running the SLP/925mb loop shows it blasts in from the northeast out of BC/AB very impressively and aggressively. By the end of the run Saturday morning modified arctic air is moving into northeast Washington with a chilly air mass pushing as far west at the central Gorge as east wind increases. A pair of lows are off the Oregon Coast. If we can transport enough cold air westward drop 850s just below 0c and introduce moisture this could become very interesting for PDX metro Saturday. Looking at the overall pattern is suggestive that modified arctic air could overtake all of eastern Washington/Columbia Basin. IF the other model camps tonight show anything like this we certainly can't rule out a switch to colder weather before day 5-6 now.

[Deweydog]

Can someone please analyze this and tell me what it means for us?

 

Screen Shot 2016-01-05 at 7.22.39 PM.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Image source: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1139-18-19-plainslakes-cutter/?p=107791)

Not a whole lot?

 

Dry. Coolish.

[crf450ish]

Not exactly sure what I just stumbled across but it appears to be pretty bada**

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.   http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-109.67,49.25,1003/loc=-149.053,45.380

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Most of my snow is pretty much gone after today. Pretty amazing it hung on for almost two weeks. 

[Phil]

Looking more and more likely we will see a wet 2nd half of January. We could see a repeat of what happened in December.

The December pattern of +NAM/+EPO/-PNA is not going to repeat this winter. There will be another +EPO surge as the high amplitude tropical +AAM wave propagates poleward over the next 15-20 days, but the remainder of the winter will (overall) feature a -NAM/+PNA, with a -NAO likely during February.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS says nah, nope.... ridge builds overhead HR 102.. cold pool may be building/locked in place