Tom Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 The LRC's dominant storm track continues to illustrate another storm system that develops in the central Plains and tracks towards the Great Lakes. Where will this storm track? Who will get snow or rain? Another Northwoods special? Let's discuss the various solutions. Latest 12z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 GGEM is farther south. Maps to come soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Yup, 12z GGEM has it tracking from Amarillo, TX to SE KS at HR120... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 GGEM Ensembles: http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016010312_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_132.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 I have to drive from Central NY to Lincoln during this time frame so I have no issue with it being rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 UKMET: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 My forecast is calling for Rain and mid to upper 30s for that time-frame.... ugh!!! I know its days away and hopefully the track changes for an all snowevent. We will see. There is nothing worse than getting a cold rain followed by arctic air. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 This needs to go south so it can draw the colder air across IA instead of the +3 +4 850 temps over the snowpack while the storm tracks over the snowpack, neither of which make sense to me. Youd think it track along the leading edge of the snowpack and this would create enough cold air for snow. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 GGEM: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016010312/gem_asnow_us_28.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 This needs to go south so it can draw the colder air across IA instead of the +3 +4 850 temps over the snowpack while the storm tracks over the snowpack, neither of which make sense to me. Youd think it track along the leading edge of the snowpack and this would create enough cold air for snow. I am with you on that thinking. NAO is going negative this week, hopefully that can influence the track. GEFS ground temps a bit cooler than the operational. I don't see really any inversion either. GGEM ensembles definitely colder. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 GFS still west and warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 I don't know what the GFS sees or doesn't see actually. There's a broad high to the north and the path of least resistance is straight east. GFS has been lessening the amount of precip. with it for several runs. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Temps slightly colder north of the low on the 0z GFS late Thursday - 96 hours. Low is farther south at 108 hours, rain snow line further south. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Temps slightly colder north of the low on the 0z GFS late Thursday - 96 hours.Yup, rain/snow line def shifted south this run compared to 00z last night and 12z today.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Still too warm and north but a little progress. Down from a mild rain to a cold one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 DEF S-- nice trend! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 GGEM 1010 over Chicago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Weak sauce Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 GGEM 1010 over Chicago Better than passing to the west of you. Getting closer to the GEM. Go Saints - in el Niño, you gotta take what you can get! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Better than passing to the west of you. Getting closer to the GEM. Go Saints - in el Niño, you gotta take what you can get! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010400/gfs_asnow_ncus_25.png That is so very true, I'll take a couple 6"+ storms in an El Nino winter, definitely are some out there that didn't feature any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Nice little weenie strip of a half inch imby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 GGEM almost looks the same. Has a period of mixed precip/light snow before this over parts of the Midwest. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Us in IA would like the GGEM Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Euro coming in colder/south compared to 0z from last night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 gosaints is all snow this run http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160104/00Z/f120/850mbtempsconus.png 0z last night: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160103/00Z/f144/850mbtempsconus.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Are you all/mostly snow on the EURO Money? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Are you all/mostly snow on the EURO Money? Not sure, don't have snow/precip maps. Looks like it's really, really close though for here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Dang shame I can't get a real storm under that cold down here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Dang shame I can't get a real storm under that cold down here.Join the party man. January and we can't buy a flake. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Look much better on the Euro for IA-- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 as long as theres enough to cover the grass, I do not want single digit highs and no snow thats for sure. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Look much better on the Euro for IA--graphic.aspx.pngGive me a few inches please! I don't want bare grass when the "Nanook from the North" comes later next week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 00z Euro Para...also shifted SE from its last run... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 I'm seeing the models starting to digest the -AO and paying close attention to how the northern jet is pressing each run farther south out of Canada near the U.S./Canadian border. The wave seems to be digging farther S/SE in KS. For example, last nights 00z Euro has the wave digging near SE KS but 2 nights ago it had it in W KS...big differences in just a 24 period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 South is the smart lean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 12z GGEM digs this wave SE as well into SE KS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 GFS so close to having this as an all snow event. The weak inversion that was showing up has pretty much blended out. Money should easily be all snow on this event and probably Wisconsinwx. Sounding near Hartford, WI.So close. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Been busy last few days. I see we have something to track Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Woah, 12z Euro just dug this energy down into N AR... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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