1/8 - 1/9 Plains/Lakes Cutter

[Tom]

This is a very interesting run that is materializing on the Euro...the second piece that is diving into the 4 corners may become an all out Phase with the northern piece.  This first lead wave is just the appetizer it looks like.

[OKwx2k4]

This is a very interesting run that is materializing on the Euro...the second piece that is diving into the 4 corners may become an all out Phase with the northern piece. This first lead wave is just the appetizer it looks like.

That sounds amazing!

[Tom]

There are going to be some interesting runs going forward to see what happens.  Doesn't quite get there on the Euro but it is trending towards what could be a larger solution.

[Tony]

^Hope to see some better runs the next couple days as it has been a boring stretch. The worst outcome would be cold and dry which would really add frustration to this board. Unfortunately not seeing any big storms on the horizon except for some nickle and dime waves on the newest model runs and more rain for later this week...can't wait.

[Tom]

^Hope to see some better runs the next couple days as it has been a boring stretch. The worst outcome would be cold and dry which would really add frustration to this board. Unfortunately not seeing any big storms on the horizon except for some nickle and dime waves on the newest model runs and more rain for later this week...can't wait.

Agree!  I can see why the models are having a devil of a time trying to figure out what to do with this system.  Just check out the 3 pieces of energy in this map below...1) Near the U.S. Canadian border by MN  2) Lower Lakes  3) Down near the TX Panhandle...This is one complex situation and with all the blocking going on in Canada, if these pieces slow down farther and the northern piece continues to press south, it could marry into one big storm.  We'll see.

 

Then add to the picture this jet structure and you can wonder where this can be heading.

 

Look where it was same time stamp just 3 runs ago.  Notice how on today's 12z run, the northern jet is a bit stronger along with the southern branch.  On top of that, you can see both of the streams trying to phase back farther west.

[gosaints]

Whats a phase? Its been so long

[Tom]

Whats a phase? Its been so long

Yup, you have been waiting quite a while...Super Bowl Blizzard 2015 just missed ya to the south...

[gosaints]

Yup, you have been waiting quite a while...Super Bowl Blizzard 2015 just missed ya to the south...

Oh I dont have chance with this one unless the first piece completely craps the bed.  Chicago is in a good spot if things line up right

[OKwx2k4]

Euro has all the pieces in the right places but comes out snowless for me. That sucked.

[CentralNebWeather]

Can you post the Euro snowfall maps?  I know it is early and much still will develop and change but just curious what they looked like.  Thanks.

[Geos]

Sounds like the EURO was, "it's so close, but yet so far solution."

[OKwx2k4]

Sounds like the EURO was, "it's so close, but yet so far solution."

Lol. Yeah. It has a TON of potential but there's just nothing there for quite a few people.

[winterfreak]

The winter of fantasy land potential. Just one to go our way is all I want.

[Money]

How does the euro ensembles look?

[OKwx2k4]

The winter of fantasy land potential. Just one to go our way is all I want.

Looking pretty bleak for us still on the euro ensembles.

[jaster220]

CPC say Giddy-up GL's region

 

 

 

 

[winterfreak]

Looking pretty bleak for us still on the euro ensembles.

You have a better chance of seeing accumulating snow than I do the next ten days.

[hlcater]

how good is the chance of acc. snow around here?(at least 2")

[Geos]

how good is the chance of acc. snow around here?(at least 2")

 

Pretty good I would say. You're riding the rain/snow line on the GFS, which I think is over doing the warming a bit. I bet you end up in the 3-6" range.

[OKwx2k4]

You have a better chance of seeing accumulating snow than I do the next ten days.

I guess if our options are slim and none, better to be in the slim category. Lol

[Tom]

00z NAM...starting to get within range...I'm seeing the storm off the NW PAC coastline may be of influence as to how much the northern stream can press south.  The farther off the coast, the more the northern stream can press south.

[Niko]

CPC say Giddy-up GL's region

 

20160104 NWS hazards_d3_7.png

Should we gear up jaster220?! Would like that to come true. Lets see!

[Maxim]

too warm for snow.

[Grizzcoat]

Cold enough in IA--

[hlcater]

Really? I'll have to look myself, but ayyy!

[Grizzcoat]

I'll take a piece of Canadian Bacon---

[Tom]

I'll take a piece of Canadian Bacon---acckucherasnowmw.png

IA/WI are in a good spot for this one...hoping for a bit of a SE shift to get in on some of that snow...

[james1976]

I'll take a piece of Canadian Bacon---acckucherasnowmw.png

Nice little bullseye in my county.

[Tom]

00z Euro trending with a secondary stronger wave near the TX Panhandle region at HR 96...

[Tom]

00z Euro...baby stepping towards an interesting cutter...the model just needs to figure out what to do with all these pieces of energy in the SE...bundle all of them together and presto...you'll have a major cutter...

[Tom]

I believe this storm is going to become a classic TX Panhandle hook in the making up through the OV.  Each run the Euro is getting the right idea.

 

GFS was too fast with the second piece and didn't do much...00z GGEM showed a glimpse of what may happen but was suppressed and up the EC and to warm.

[Tom]

Check out the better phasing it is seeing from just 24 hours ago...same time stamp...

[Tom]

The Euro is trying to dig this storm each run...lots of time to see this one evolve...

[Grizzcoat]

Euro 10:1-- even though post frontal will be more like 15:1-- liking this trend of post frontal snows.

[winterfreak]

Yeah I saw the post frontal snow on the GFS. Would be a nice mood inch or two for the weekend.

[james1976]

06z GFS is nothing. All precip is before the cold air hits.

[Iowawx]

Complete waste of a storm. Rain and then dry and cold conditions with no snow cover. Can't win them all. Not our winter this year.

[winterfreak]

GFS still not budging.

[Geos]

Euro 10:1-- even though post frontal will be more like 15:1-- liking this trend of post frontal snows.graphic.aspx.png

 

Did the 12z follow this trend?

[gosaints]

Did the 12z follow this trend?