1/8 - 1/9 Plains/Lakes Cutter

[Geos]

The AO is over -2, and the NAO is now neutral - I wonder if the models will be influenced by those factors and change the track of this thing?

[gosaints]

The AO is over -2, and the NAO is now neutral - I wonder if the models will be influenced by those factors and change the track of this thing?

Shortwave should be over california tomorrow morning.  I could see it coming southeast some

[gosaints]

Ratios look terrible Kuchera is spitting out less snow than 10:1

[Geos]

Creator of the thread should expand the date until the 10th. Unless you want to create a separate thread for the second wave.

[Geos]

I was just going to post on this thought and maybe you should separate these systems.

 

Sure I can do that.

[Tom]

00z GGEM...

[Geos]

Alright new topic started for the panhandler.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1143-19-110-panhandler/

[Geos]

Wondering if there might be more of ice threat ahead of the rain tomorrow. NAM holding temps near freezing for awhile tomorrow.

 

[westMJim]

On todays ADF from GRR they are not all the impressed with the lake effect set up for next week and it looks like this cold will be just a short shot of a few days (more or less) here is the GRR ADF for the Saturday to Wednesday next week.

LONG TERM  
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016  
  
OUR MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE TRANSITION OF  
PCPN TYPE IN THE SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND THEN THE LAKE EFFECT  
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER MAKES  
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.  
  
WE SHOULD START OUT WITH JUST REGULAR RAIN DURING THE DAY ON SAT  
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. A SOLID  
WARM AND MOIST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON SAT MORNING. THIS WILL BE  
OUT AHEAD OF THE SERIES OF NRN AND SRN STREAM TROUGHS THAT WILL  
EVENTUALLY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO MORE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER. WE WILL  
SEE THE COLD AIR CHANGE OVER THE RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AS  
THE NRN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SRN STREAM OVER THE REGION.  
THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES  
OUT ENTIRELY SUN MORNING.  
  
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN RAMP UP BY SUN AFTERNOON AND  
LIKELY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH  
NEXT WED. H850 TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND -20 TO -22C BY 12Z MON.  
EVEN THOUGH LAKE EFFECT LOOKS LIKELY DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...IT  
DOES NOT INITIALLY LOOK TOO INTIMIDATING. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE  
THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT LIMITED AS THE NRN JET CORE  
DOES NOT LOOK TO DROP ENTIRELY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE STILL EXPECT  
ACCUMULATIONS...WITH W/NW FLOW BEING FAVORED ON MON...BEFORE  
SHIFTING TO THE SW.  
  
LATE MON NIGHT AND MORE SO TUE...WE WILL LIKELY SE SOME GOOD  
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR SW FLOW FAVORED AREAS. WE WILL  
SEE A STRONG NRN STREAM WAVE MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TAKING THE JET  
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WAVE AND DEEPER  
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AT  
THAT TIME.  
  
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN TREND DOWN SOME ON WED.  
THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER JET CORE SHIFTS NORTH AGAIN AND WE SEE SOME  
SFC RIDGING BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LOWER  
AS A RESULT AND LAKE EFFECT INTENSITY WILL WANE A BIT. INSTABILITY  
WILL STILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND -20C OR SO  
STILL BEHIND THE TUE WAVE...EVENTUALLY MODIFYING AS RETURN FLOW  
SETS UP.   
  

[Geos]

On todays ADF from GRR they are not all the impressed with the lake effect set up for next week and it looks like this cold will be just a short shot of a few days (more or less) here is the GRR ADF for the Saturday to Wednesday next week.

LONG TERM  

(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  

ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016  

  

OUR MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE TRANSITION OF  

PCPN TYPE IN THE SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND THEN THE LAKE EFFECT  

POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER MAKES  

ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.  

  

WE SHOULD START OUT WITH JUST REGULAR RAIN DURING THE DAY ON SAT  

ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. A SOLID  

WARM AND MOIST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON SAT MORNING. THIS WILL BE  

OUT AHEAD OF THE SERIES OF NRN AND SRN STREAM TROUGHS THAT WILL  

EVENTUALLY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO MORE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER. WE WILL  

SEE THE COLD AIR CHANGE OVER THE RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AS  

THE NRN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SRN STREAM OVER THE REGION.  

THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES  

OUT ENTIRELY SUN MORNING.  

  

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN RAMP UP BY SUN AFTERNOON AND  

LIKELY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH  

NEXT WED. H850 TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND -20 TO -22C BY 12Z MON.  

EVEN THOUGH LAKE EFFECT LOOKS LIKELY DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...IT  

DOES NOT INITIALLY LOOK TOO INTIMIDATING. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE  

THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT LIMITED AS THE NRN JET CORE  

DOES NOT LOOK TO DROP ENTIRELY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE STILL EXPECT  

ACCUMULATIONS...WITH W/NW FLOW BEING FAVORED ON MON...BEFORE  

SHIFTING TO THE SW.  

  

LATE MON NIGHT AND MORE SO TUE...WE WILL LIKELY SE SOME GOOD  

ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR SW FLOW FAVORED AREAS. WE WILL  

SEE A STRONG NRN STREAM WAVE MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TAKING THE JET  

SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WAVE AND DEEPER  

INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AT  

THAT TIME.  

  

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN TREND DOWN SOME ON WED.  

THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER JET CORE SHIFTS NORTH AGAIN AND WE SEE SOME  

SFC RIDGING BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LOWER  

AS A RESULT AND LAKE EFFECT INTENSITY WILL WANE A BIT. INSTABILITY  

WILL STILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND -20C OR SO  

STILL BEHIND THE TUE WAVE...EVENTUALLY MODIFYING AS RETURN FLOW  

SETS UP.   

  

 

It looks like a couple day break from the Arctic air late next week and then another powerful surge comes in after that on the GFS. It's an el Niño winter, it would be continuous Arctic air flowing in.

I think you will do pretty good with lake effect though.

 

This may be Grand Rapids biggest lake effect event this month, so will have to watch to see how well they do - that's one of the tie breaker questions for the contest.

 

Definitely looks like some good lapse rates over the lake late on Monday.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

I don't mind the look of the 0z nam for my location in central Nebraska. Close to 6 inches if it verifies. Local mets are saying 2-4 but locally higher under a heavier band.

[Geos]

System keeps on looking drier here. Would be nice to skip the rain altogether and go right to the snow afterwards.

 

[Tom]

12z EPS...

[Money]

Nam is stronger so far through 42

[jcwxguy]

ginormous flakes in lincoln currently.

Picture does not do it justice..

 

http://i1228.photobucket.com/albums/ee442/jcwxguy1/Mobile%20Uploads/Screenshot_2016-01-07-14-10-32.png

[gosaints]

ginormous flakes in lincoln currently.

Picture does not do it justice..

Awesome

[Tom]

ginormous flakes in lincoln currently.

Picture does not do it justice..

Heck ya!  The snow Gods have awaken...hope it stays

[NEJeremy]

Very impressive bright banding showing up on the radar, returns up to 50DBZ. We're still rain but hopefully some of the big flakes can get pulled down!

[CentralNebWeather]

Shouldn't surprise me, but NWS Hastings really cutting back on snow amounts here.  I was in an area to get 4 inches and locally more and now it is saying maybe an inch if lucky.  For as great as the potential looks, it never seems to verify in the amounts that are forecasted.  You would think one of these would go our way in Central Nebraska.  On to the next storm hopefully.

[gabel23]

Shouldn't surprise me, but NWS Hastings really cutting back on snow amounts here.  I was in an area to get 4 inches and locally more and now it is saying maybe an inch if lucky.  For as great as the potential looks, it never seems to verify in the amounts that are forecasted.  You would think one of these would go our way in Central Nebraska.  On to the next storm hopefully.

They have been way off all year, not quite sure what the deal is. I was surprised to see how hard it snowed! It started off as graupel or snow grains and transitioned into huge snow flakes! I couldn't believe how big the flakes were! we received around 3" of snow in about an hour and a half! 

[gosaints]

Solid inch of.cement down here. Guessing we flip to rain later

[FarmerRick]

Got at least 3" since yesterday afternoon, compacted to about 2" due to how wet and warm it is.

 

I'll take it.

[Tom]

Looks like some of you guys out in E NE didn't do so bad after all with this storm.  Still showing some good returns near OMA/LNK.

[CentralNebWeather]

I spoke way to soon again as usual.  It started snowing fairly heavily here about 5 AM or so  and was really coming down for a couple hours, and it is still snowing and supposed to for a couple more hours if radar verifies.  I would say at least 2 inches or a little more with some wind.  Our school is starting on time but many around us have late starts.  Nice surprise in a disappointing season of near misses.

[gosaints]

2 inches of concrete here overnight.  Could pick up another inch this afternoon is it falls as snow..

[jcwxguy]

solid inch or two here depending on what part of town

[CentralNebWeather]

This snow has been dry enough that there is some blowing going on here with a wind  gusting to almost 25 mph.  Stops snowing then a little band goes through.  Off and on for the day it looks like with not much more accumulation.

[Geos]

On the warm side the rainfall amounts have almost been non measurable. 0.01 so far. Glacier is holding steady.

[gabel23]

We received a solid 4" of snow. The first band yesterday afternoon laid down between 2-3" of snow and then over night we received another couple inches. Of course there was some compacting so it's hard to tell exactly how much I received. My snow depth is now at 7". I haven't seen a huge storm yet but that should come, we usually see our heaviest snow storms later in the winter. I just hope I can keep this snow on the ground, I'm going on three weeks with a snow depth greater than 2". Now bring on the cold! I must say, this is the first time I have had school called off and we weren't in any advisory or warning. 

[gabel23]

Here are some snow reports from the area. My official snow total comes from a person just northeast of town. He has been reporting for the NWS for years. I received 4.4" officially. Not a bad storm to say the least! 

 

801

NWUS53 KGID 081654
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1054 AM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 4 N HASTINGS 40.65N 98.39W
01/08/2016 M1.5 INCH ADAMS NE OFFICIAL NWS OBS

24 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM. SNOWDEPTH 2 IN.

0620 AM SNOW 2 SSE HASTINGS 40.56N 98.38W
01/08/2016 M2.5 INCH ADAMS NE NWS EMPLOYEE

24 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM. CORRECTED FROM 1SSE TO BETTER
REFLECT LOCATION.

0630 AM SNOW BRADSHAW 40.88N 97.75W
01/08/2016 M2.4 INCH YORK NE CO-OP OBSERVER

0648 AM SNOW 3 N YORK 40.91N 97.60W
01/08/2016 M2.4 INCH YORK NE CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 1 S FAIRFIELD 40.42N 98.10W
01/08/2016 M3.5 INCH CLAY NE COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW CLAY CENTER 40.52N 98.05W
01/08/2016 M3.2 INCH CLAY NE CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW MCCOOL JUNCTION 40.74N 97.60W
01/08/2016 E2.5 INCH YORK NE PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT VIA FACEBOOK.

0700 AM SNOW 3 NE SHELBY 41.22N 97.39W
01/08/2016 M4.4 INCH POLK NE CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 2 NW OHIOWA 40.43N 97.48W
01/08/2016 M3.0 INCH FILLMORE NE COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 2 WSW TOBIAS 40.41N 97.37W
01/08/2016 M2.5 INCH FILLMORE NE COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 4 SSE HILDRETH 40.28N 99.02W
01/08/2016 M2.5 INCH FRANKLIN NE COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 4 SW BLADEN 40.28N 98.65W
01/08/2016 M2.0 INCH WEBSTER NE COCORAHS

0800 AM SNOW 3 SE HASTINGS 40.55N 98.35W
01/08/2016 M3.1 INCH ADAMS NE NWS EMPLOYEE

SOUTH SIDE OF HASTINGS HAD ROUGHLY TWICE AS MUCH SNOW AS
OFFICIAL OB AT NWS OFFICE JUST NORTH OF TOWN.

[gabel23]

Probably the craziest thing from this storm was accuweather was spot on! They had my area receiving 3-6" of snow, and that was in their forecast 4 days ago!! Might have to start trusting in-accuweather!! 

[CentralNebWeather]

Another band has developed over me, snowing at a good rate.  This has been the strangest storm, was disappointed last night and pleasantly surprised all day today.  I am looking out my classroom window and snow is blowing off the roof and the lot looks treacherous.  I will post pictures later this evening.

[jcwxguy]

Might have to start trusting in-accuweather!! 

umm no LOL

 

But now that i think about it, their forecast lately has been better then years past 

[CentralNebWeather]

I hate to admit it also, but accuweather has been closer than NWS Hastings in recent storms, usually alot less, but this was close to spot on.  Wow.

[gosaints]

looks like a few hours of mood flakes setting in here

[Geos]

Congrats on the snow. Nice pictures Gabel.

Glad this system delivered some snow and wasn't a total waste. Only 0.03" of rain to boot here.

[CentralNebWeather]

A few pictures from the snow today in Holdrege Nebraska.

[gosaints]

Sneaking up on 3 inches

[CentralNebWeather]

Nice little snow. Roads and streets are really slick. Just got back from jv basketball game and slid several times.