1/9-1/10 Panhandler

[jaster220]

GFS still not budging.

 

But GEFS at least trying for some of us up in the Lakes. I know it doesn't help you - sorry man.

 

 

[Tom]

But GEFS at least trying for some of us up in the Lakes. I know it doesn't help you - sorry man.

 

20160105 12z GEFS 120hr MSLP.gif

12z EPS keep shifting this storm farther off the East Coast and taking a more inland track from runs 2-3 days ago.  This is going to be complicated for the models to figure out what to do with the second piece of energy along the arctic front.

[Geos]

It looks like something wants to happen at this time frame, but it's just not quite there yet.

 

[Tom]

It looks like something wants to happen at this time frame, but it's just not quite there yet.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_17.png

What is interesting, the RPM/NAM at the end of the run have a swath of snow developing near the TX Panhandle.  I'd give it a couple more days to see how the models handle this second piece of energy.  Rule of Thumb suggests that the secondary piece is likely to be the stronger of the 2 and track up along the baraclinic zone/arctic front.

[Tom]

But GEFS at least trying for some of us up in the Lakes. I know it doesn't help you - sorry man.

 

20160105 12z GEFS 120hr MSLP.gif

18z GEFS continue to show more members cutting this second wave up near OH/IN...not off to the East

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010518/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_19.png

[Tom]

I know its the 00z NAM, but taking a look at the 500mb vortex at the end of the run looks promising for lower lakes cutter.  Storm starts developing in N AR and the GOM starts opening up.  This storm has a real good chance of becoming a TX Pan Handle hooker (no, not the one on a six corner in Chicago...lol).

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010600/namconus_z500_vort_us_29.png

[winterfreak]

I know its the 00z NAM, but taking a look at the 500mb vortex at the end of the run looks promising for lower lakes cutter. Storm starts developing in N AR and the GOM starts opening up. This storm has a real good chance of becoming a TX Pan Handle hooker (no, not the one on a six corner in Chicago...lol).

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010600/namconus_z500_vort_us_29.png

Hahaha that gave me a good laugh.

[Jaycee]

 

I know its the 00z NAM, but taking a look at the 500mb vortex at the end of the run looks promising for lower lakes cutter. Storm starts developing in N AR and the GOM starts opening up. This storm has a real good chance of becoming a TX Pan Handle hooker (no, not the one on a six corner in Chicago...lol).

 

I'm not opposed to either pretty sure Nebraska is going to need either/or given the way winter has went here so far.

[Tom]

Hahaha that gave me a good laugh.

I think Gary Lezak has been waiting for this one....prob part of the reason why he hasn't said much about the storm system just yet.  A lot of pieces are scattered around and the models are having difficulty but should be starting to get a better read soon.

[Tom]

00z NAM...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_081_500_vort_ht.gif

 

18z GFS...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_087_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

Look at all those "X's" scattered all over the place...very odd looking...need them to be tied closer together...

[gosaints]

GFS has the second wave right on the tail of number one.  Cuts it to NW indiana

[Tom]

Well...00z GFS baby stepping with the second wave towards a decent cutter now...looks stronger at HR 78...500mb looking better also..

[winterfreak]

It's stronger this run too.

[Money]

GFS has the second wave right on the tail of number one. Cuts it to NW indiana

Yup strengthens it down to 999 or so once it gets to Chicago

[gosaints]

Yup strengthens it down to 999 or so once it gets to Chicago

Gonna see a wide range of solution on this one in the next 48 hours

[Tom]

00z GFS...ain't much YET...but heading in the right direction I'd say...give me 2" and I'd be happy because I know the ice/snow that is OTG now is going to be gone by Friday...

[Tom]

My idea still stands...good Ol' Pan handle hook in the making...once I saw the Euro a couple nights ago, I saw the vision where this could go...

[Tom]

The trend this season is for these waves to dig as they skirt the 4 corners region and eject out into the Pan Handle.  How many storms have we seen this season that blossomed in this area???

[gosaints]

The trend this season is for these waves to dig as they skirt the 4 corners region and eject out into the Pan Handle.  How many storms have we seen this season that blossomed in this area???

Ill dream tonight about all of the energy coming out at once....

[Geos]

I'll take this!

 

Just get this to phase a bit more and end up with a wider snow band.

 

[Money]

Ggem way east and takes the low in the OV

[hlcater]

I wanna see snow 5 degrees and brown, no es bien

[gosaints]

Ggem way east and takes the low in the OV

As expected going to see drastically different solutions

[gosaints]

I bet there will be massive spread in the ensemble members

[Geos]

Looks like the NAM wants to do something with the energy too.

 

[Tom]

Creator of the thread should expand the date until the 10th. Unless you want to create a separate thread for the second wave.

I was just going to post on this thought and maybe you should separate these systems.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I'll take this!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_16.png

Just get this to phase a bit more and end up with a wider snow band.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010600/gfs_asnow_ncus_19.png

 

That's another Geos special!  Racking up those 6"+ storms like they're nothing, would already be your 3rd of this still young season if it happened like this (or close to it).

[Tom]

With the amount of blocking already in place, I'd imagine an earlier phase in future runs...

[winterfreak]

Looks like the NAM wants to do something with the energy too.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010600/namconus_ref_frzn_eus_28.png

Looks pretty good. Might be a sneaky storm for someone.

[Geos]

Thread for the second wave that rides up the baroclinic zone.

 

Looks to be in the developing stages, but it is not all that far away in the future. Seems like something is bound to happen with this energy.

[Tom]

Wonder who is going to win this battle...GFS or EURO...GEFS are much father west than the Euro Ensembles...however, Euro ensembles have been shifting westward.

[Money]

GGEM Ensembles at HR 96

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016010600_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gemglb@gem007_096.png

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016010600_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem017@gem020_096.png

[Money]

108

 

Couple phased out bombs (some down to 985)

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016010600_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gemglb@gem007_108.png

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016010600_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem008@gem016_108.png

[Money]

 UKMET HR 96

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

HR 120

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[Tom]

You'd think that on the heels of a major arctic attack and the way the LRC has set up this season we'd see a major storm swing through the region.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

 UKMET HR 96

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

HR 120

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

The UKMET is always NW, the fact that it's SE of our ideal track isn't a great sign at this point.  Of course, still a few days for a NW shift to continue.

[Money]

The UKMET is always NW, the fact that it's SE of our ideal track isn't a great sign at this point.  Of course, still a few days for a NW shift to continue.

 

Did you see the 0z run from last night?

[Money]

12z ukie

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

Went from a OTS solution to a sub 995 L over Indiana in one run.

[Tom]

JMA/GFS/UKIE vs GGEM/EURO...of course, 00z Euro hasn't come in yet...

[Money]

JMA Total Precip:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016010512/jma_apcpn_us_5.png