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1/9-1/10 Panhandler


jaster220

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That purple line may be the -10C 850's. If the storm becomes as big as the Euro is showing, it won't have any problem tugging down the cold air from the HP the NW.

Its surface temperature I am guessing the purple line crosses the dotted line in areas ruling out 850 mb...

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That purple line may be the -10C 850's. If the storm becomes as big as the Euro is showing, it won't have any problem tugging down the cold air from the HP the NW.

 

That sounds right. 850mb temps would be way below 0° by daybreak on Sunday around here. They're already below 0° early Saturday.

 

EURO is over doing the marine influence on that map.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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All of the models seem to have a wound up system.  All of which have the same issue no matter where they tr a ack.  The airmass is to warm that ite is running into.

 

Need this thing to phase earlier. 

 

Models also have a very tough time with these type of storms. Everything has to go together to get a bomb out of this, but if all the pieces fit together look out.

 

When does sampling of the waves happen?

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of sleet and FZR, amounted to like 5 inches total,. Honestly I wouldn't call that big but I really shouldve rephrased that. Into something more like "It's a shame we get to miss this giant storm" 

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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A really juicy system starting to get it's act together. As some have mentioned, if it can phase sooner/go negative tilt then a few could get hammered in this type of setup. Just need the cold air to filter in quicker.

 

A big phased storm should be able to draw enough cold air in, and don't forget that areas will likely receive another 2-4 inches of snow before thos in WI/MN which could draw in the colder air farther south. 

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CPC took big steps towards the magic combo

 

 

 

Euro mean track friendlier to us east of Chicago

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It looks like all the players for this storm are on the playing field so starting with the 0z runs we should hopefully see better modeling. Only caveat that we won't know for sure will be the setup for the cold air.....this probably won't be know for a few model runs. The best model with regards to the the northern branch of this storm would be the Canadian so look to it for this piece of the puzzle.

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This system should be getting partial sampling in tonights 00z runs....full sampling by tomorrow's 12z runs...even then, once the energy skirts the 4 corners region we will see some interesting runs.  That -NAO is going to help this storm turn due NNE.  Haven't seen a Greenland block like this in a while.  Those rising heights in SE Canada are going to help slow this system down and dig.

 

Also, the Euro has been weakening the 1st wave and focusing in on the stronger gulf wave which allows the energy to focus in and eventually phase quicker.  

 

On the 12z Euro run, the model is still seeing a piece of energy just NW of FL which effects the storm phase earlier.  If this comes out of the Gulf in one piece, its going to be a massive storm IMO.  This may just be the model "dragging its feet" and leaving energy behind.  I don't see why it would do so.  Future runs will probably have this energy in one bulk piece.

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This system should be getting partial sampling in tonights 00z runs....full sampling by tomorrow's 12z runs...even then, once the energy skirts the 4 corners region we will see some interesting runs.  That -NAO is going to help this storm turn due NNE.  Haven't seen a Greenland block like this in a while.  Those rising heights in SE Canada are going to help slow this system down and dig.

 

Also, the Euro has been weakening the 1st wave and focusing in on the stronger gulf wave which allows the energy to focus in and eventually phase quicker.  

 

On the 12z Euro run, the model is still seeing a piece of energy just NW of FL which effects the storm phase earlier.  If this comes out of the Gulf in one piece, its going to be a massive storm IMO.  This may just be the model "dragging its feet" and leaving energy behind.  I don't see why it would do so.  Future runs will probably have this energy in one bulk piece.

 

Great insights Tom! Globals against the American models attm. Gonna be quite the ride following this, eh? This is the battle we've talked about for a few months now - Nino vs the blob with the low solar to boot. Battle ground setting up with us smack dab in ground zero like you said.  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Great insights Tom! Globals against the American models attm. Gonna be quite the ride following this, eh? This is the battle we've talked about for a few months now - Nino vs the blob with the low solar to boot. Battle ground setting up with us smack dab in ground zero like you said.  ;)

Bomb's away!  The amount of blocking setting up in this pattern is quite unique, in such that, we haven't seen this in numerous years...especially with a strong El Nino in place this year.

 

BTW, it wasn't too many days ago when many believed this storm would be an EC or OTS...LRC/30-day cycle worked like a charm on this one.  Also, I'm baffled at how much the Euro Ensembles have shifted NW when the GEFS sniffed it out earlier on.

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Hopefully that Greenland high and heights in eastern CA will be a tad stronger this weekend.

 

Wouldn't be mind seeing an eastward track so that NW IN and the City of Chicago closer to the lake could get a bigger event - and western MI. You guys have been really shafted! lol

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The trends in the Euro handling both jet streaks are getting stronger and better phased each run...

 

Notice just 24 hours ago the evolution...look how much stronger the southern jet is along the Gulf coast in today's run and compare it to yesterday's run.  Now, also pay attention to the northern jet up near the Great Lakes which was pretty much non existent just 24 hours ago.  That's a beautiful sign to see both jets "marry" their energy together. This is how we get monster storm systems to brew.

 

Today's 12z run, clearly is showing "Uccellin's and Kocin's Theory" placing the lower lakes in the regions of both jet streams where maximum lift is produced.  I believe the model is digesting the SE Canadian ridge which is amplifying this situation.

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