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August 2022 Observation & Discussion


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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

looks like the heat advisory in E.IA was a bust --

though humid-- just a typical summer day for ambient

Our high temp has been over-forecasted all summer.  We had two 90º highs in July.  The NWS and locals all had mid 90s today and were way off.  They all had 100º for Wednesday.  Now the NWS has upper 90s Saturday.  Ugh!  It is never that hot.  Stop forecasting it to be that hot.  Jeez.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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24 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Nastiest day of the year imo.  Currently I have a temp of 98 with a Heat Index of 111.  On the plus side there is a 20mph wind lol.

Plain awful! 😳

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The 104F+ temps ( and  record heat wave in general) forecasted for C.IA is a bust, this - from 4-5 days out.  This includes omitting the horrible GFS ,This would be = to -15F  to -20F in the winter for lows , which is NEVER forecasted that far out apples to apples. Is there a bias in some NWS forecasts? You bet. And most lean too warm, esp summer here in IA. Still waiting on that 100F in DSM this summer which has been forecasted 6-7 times. Hmmm.. Gotta give the NWS credit though for calling out the GFS for it's 110-115F Al Gore like temps , but they are still too warm,, no records broken for heat this summer  ( KDSM) but the  local media makes it out to  be like 1936, not understanding what happened in 1936 with 15 consecutive days 100F or above. None yet in 2022. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Posted this over in the PNW thread with the old homies, but wanted to share here too with the new homies. 

Yesterday we welcomed Daisy as the newest member of our family. We will soon get to experience a SD winter for the first time together. 😊

IMG_20220802_181232.jpg

What a cute dog!  I’m sure she will enjoy the snow!

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35 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Same radar signature that happened before the dust/haboob-like storm in May. Assuming that's the storm outflow?

I can see the leading edge of it just to my NW. Looks like a big shelf cloud. Too bad it's dark, can't get a good picture. 

Screenshot_20220802-211441_RadarScope.jpg

Definitely outflow! Even though haboobs are cool, if one happened in mid-summer that's a sign the ground is still really dry, so hoping that doesn't spawn one. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Temps are still in the low 80s across my area this morning.  Looking forward to a cold front moving through tonight that should knock the humidity and temps back down to average.  Storm chances look to be scattered and better to my east.  Also KC hit 100 degrees yesterday for the second time this summer.

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Happy Hump Day!  The pattern continues to cycle...check this out, remember how we opened up Met Summer way up near Hudson Bay?  They had a rare Summer Snow storm back then and as we open August we see an identical pattern.  This time, however, it may be a bit to warm to snow but the same pattern is cycling (63 days later).  #HudsonBayVortex

image.gif

 

 

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They keep adjusting us up!

104* today and 103* mañana!  

Enough already.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 84/62 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 92% of the time. The official overnight low at GR so for looks to be 70 that was at 1AM. Here at my house I had warmer low of 72. At the current time there is a on going shower here and 74.

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4 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Went from heat and drought conditions yesterday to a flood advisory this morning! About 1.5 inches have fell in the last hour and they are expecting more showers and storms throughout the day 

I bet the cooler air feels nice after yesterday's roasting.  I hope some of those storms make it this way this afternoon. 

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A week ago models were forecasting a significant heatwave with little or no rain all week.  Instead, I just got my third strong storm in three days and we have not hit 90º once.

This storm just now is warned for wind.  It did get quite gusty, perhaps 50 mph, but not quite severe.  It was a thin line so, while the rain was quite heavy, my gauge only has 0.34".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Potential for some storms today and tanite. In the meantime, very hot temps forecasted for today w readings in the mid to possibly upper 90s. Realfeel in the triple digits. Yuck! Nice cooldown coming next week. Possibly highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Our forecast is mind numbing  repetitive.  
104 today, 103 tomorrow, then 9 days of 100*.  

9 days. 

Can we get into the 90’s?  It’s like the computer is stuck!

What are long range models saying?  
Texas is having a hard time.  
Migraine levels are high right now.  
That’s me.  And I’m begging for relief.  
But a 2 week string of 100 is hammering me.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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At the end of last week, models/locals/NWS had today being the big 100º day.  Instead, it's 76º.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Models are trending toward a front slowly sagging south across the upper midwest this weekend into early next week.  A widespread soaker could be the result.

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  • Rain 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Here we go:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 514
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2022

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MIC005-015-017-021-023-025-027-037-045-049-057-059-063-065-067-
075-077-081-087-091-093-099-111-115-117-125-139-145-147-149-151-
155-157-159-161-163-040100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0514.220803T1825Z-220804T0100Z/

MI
.    MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGAN              BARRY               BAY
BERRIEN              BRANCH              CALHOUN
CASS                 CLINTON             EATON
GENESEE              GRATIOT             HILLSDALE
HURON                INGHAM              IONIA
JACKSON              KALAMAZOO           KENT
LAPEER               LENAWEE             LIVINGSTON
MACOMB               MIDLAND             MONROE
MONTCALM             OAKLAND             OTTAWA
SAGINAW              SANILAC             SHIAWASSEE
ST. CLAIR            ST. JOSEPH          TUSCOLA
VAN BUREN            WASHTENAW           WAYNE
$$



 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
401 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-040900-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
401 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat and humidity today will push heat indices to around 100 degrees
this afternoon. A heat advisory is in effect for the entire Detroit
Metro Area and points south. Refer to the heat advisory statement for
further details.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening between noon and midnight. The best chance for severe
storms is between 1-6 PM. Damaging winds to 65 mph and hail larger
than 1 inch in diameter are the main threats. An isolated tornado
can not be ruled out with the first storms that develop Wednesday
afternoon, likely north of M-59. Torrential rainfall will also occur
with the strongest thunderstorms, which could lead to urban and low
lying flooding. Storm motion looks to be east around 25 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A chance of thunderstorms continues for Thursday and Thursday evening,
especially toward the southern Michigan border, with locally heavy
rainfall being the main hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Dispatchers please notify your
emergency managers immediately.

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

$$


 

  • Storm 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Wow. Look at this giant line. 

KILX_loop.gif

KIWX_loop.gif

KDTX_loop.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

@OttumwaSnomow are you finally getting some rain?

We managed .23  many around me got more.   As  noted  today was predicted  to be in uppee 90s. But barely could muster 80f with clouds and showera much of day.   Drought  continues  and the heat wave continues  to be way overhyped  here. 17 90 degrees days by aug 3rd not bad!

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Tell me somethings going to change in No Tx, pleeeez!

I have a migraine and it seems to want to camp out. Bad air and heat. 😪

104 today. Gnarly air.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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No way!!   Far out!  
There will be neighbors dancing naked in the streets! 
Ewww!  
But how cool?  If only we could keep it!

Heres local’s call 

 

B9B041AC-C8B3-49BB-9C37-6D7372CD4779.jpeg

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Big noisy storms here overnight dropped 2.75 inches of rainfall.  What a great surprise I was not expecting much.  4 and 5 inch totals being reported just to my south and a Flood warning is in effect from mby and the countries to my south and east.

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17 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Big noisy storms here overnight dropped 2.75 inches of rainfall.  What a great surprise I was not expecting much.  4 and 5 inch totals being reported just to my south and a Flood warning is in effect from mby and the countries to my south and east.

Awesome!  Glad to see this front delivered for your area...how is the crop in general doing in the state of MO?

 

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Locals finally put mid week rain and 96* temps in the forecast.  Makes you wonder if they’re on “auto-heat” mode. 


Everyone is begging for good news. 
Rain and mid 90’s makes you dance after 104*!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 87/71 the official rain fall amount was 0.70” and there was just 11% of sunshine. Here in MBY I recorded 0.49” of rain fall yesterday. It was much warmer to the south and east of Grand Rapids and as has been the case many times this past year. To the west with more clouds and a wind off the lake it was cooler (thought humid) with highs of 82 at Muskegon and 86 at Holland. It was a warm night with the low in MBY of 72 and the official low at GRR also 72.  I will be in Wisconsin and will try to give a report now and then as to how the weather is on the other side of the Lake.

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Yesterday was a Big Severe wx day for our Michiganders

The storms were north of me early in the day and to the south of me later in the day. Here there was some rain (heavy at times) but no wind. At this time there are about 50000 without power from Consumers Power one of the power companies here in Michigan.

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9 hours ago, westMJim said:

The storms were north of me early in the day and to the south of me later in the day. Here there was some rain (heavy at times) but no wind. At this time there are about 50000 without power from Consumers Power one of the power companies here in Michigan.

Same here. I had no wind at all, just brief hvy rains and some lightning. I think I heard a far thunder a couple of times and that's about it. Quite odd, considering the radar was lid.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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