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August 2022 Observation & Discussion


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2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I ended up with .34”. Was surprised to suddenly hear thunder when I had stopped looking at the radar a couple hours earlier.

I’m mowing today for the first time in 3 weeks and still probably won’t fill up much of the garbage can.

Yeah I was up until around 11:00pm last night watching the storms to the north over Omaha, and I pretty much gave up all hope as we didn’t even get a sprinkle with the first batch. I was pleasantly surprised to wake up with a quarter inch of rain in the gauge this morning. 

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11 hours ago, Andie said:

This May article just might have nailed it. 
It is just as true now as then. 

Rare triple dip Niña likely ahead. May as well get prepared.  Pacific isn’t showing any signs of weakening   

https://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/2022-05-12-la-nina-triple-dip-possible-impacts

A triple dip? That is rare, but we’re likely facing an extremely rare 4th year La Niña!

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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I could find no confidence in a 4th.  
We will have to wait and see if the 3rd materializes.  
We’re certainly in a warmer trend overall.  I may see some rain Wednesday so that will be nice.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Was out late last night taking advantage of clear skies and wonderful weather with my son observing the Heavens with telescope. Saturn was gorgeous as were other objects. But the  bright moon ruined a lot of objects. Here was a 89% full moon at 146* power. ,Shifted to the side to show more contrast shot with simple cell phone through the eyepiece. 

IMG_20220809_042417.jpg

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 days ahead in the mid 90’s. 
96* avg. 30-40% chance of rain.  
 

This is far more typical of this time however I’m sure we’ll plunge back into the oven. Will enjoy while I can. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We are now back home after our short trip to the Milwaukee area. I was surprised to see just 0.12” of total rain fall in my rain gauge. I thought there would be a lot more so all of that heavy rain in the forecast was really hit and miss. Now one forecast that did play out was the lake forecast from the Grand Rapids NWS for Lake Michigan. The forecast was for 5-to-7-foot waves. Well the trip back from Manitowoc on the Badger could be described as kind of rocky. That may be call a “big boat”, but with a north wind and the waves we had.  It was somewhat rocky more, so than I thought it would and the crew seemed to be surprised that it rolled that much. With the wind and waves hitting the side of the boat it was rocking side to side, not front to back. Anyway it added to the experience.

 

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As day light begins to emerge to my east, it is a bit breezy this morning but a very comfy 66F/36F.  Not much humidity yet but I'm sure that'll return come later this week.  I'll post some pics and vids from our day yesterday a little later.

For now, I'm starting to see and really believe the worst of Summer is heading our way for many on here.  It's nice to see a plan come together when nature decides to cooperate!  By mid month, the "Attack of the Death Ridge" is showing clear signs of happening now.  @Andie @Iceresistance I think ya'll will be out doing rain dances later this month.  Massive blocking and a lucrative pattern is poised to set up a wetter/cooler pattern for the S Plains.

Pretty neat 0z EPS animation showing how the "dry hole" over the central US/TX fills up with precip Week 2...

image.gif

 

Here comes the cooling trend my friends!  From the 15th and beyond don't look like the "dog days of summer"...that's likely whats happening right now for you guys that are torching.

1.gif

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4 minutes ago, Tom said:

As day light begins to emerge to my east, it is a bit breezy this morning but a very comfy 66F/36F.  Not much humidity yet but I'm sure that'll return come later this week.  I'll post some pics and vids from our day yesterday a little later.

For now, I'm starting to see and really believe the worst of Summer is heading our way for many on here.  It's nice to see a plan come together when nature decides to cooperate!  By mid month, the "Attack of the Death Ridge" is showing clear signs of happening now.  @Andie @Iceresistance I think ya'll will be out doing rain dances later this month.  Massive blocking and a lucrative pattern is poised to set up a wetter/cooler pattern for the S Plains.

Pretty neat 0z EPS animation showing how the "dry hole" over the central US/TX fills up with precip Week 2...

image.gif

 

Here comes the cooling trend my friends!  From the 15th and beyond don't look like the "dog days of summer"...that's likely whats happening right now for you guys that are torching.

1.gif

You beat me to it with the cool down coming I am very excited.  Lezak was on TV yesterday talking about a strong cold front next week and some cooler temps that will have many of us thinking about fall.  It was good to see the Ozarks region of Missouri get big rains last night and in some cases too much at once, with some major flooding going on this morning.

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Aside from those in parts of SE NE/S IA, it appears that the Monsoon pattern will likely remove the drought in many locals of the the SW.  I wonder what the media will focus on then?  Instead of the benefits of mother nature delivering rain in Death Valley, they tarnish the benefits of seeing welcomed precipitation!  Sure, there was flash flooding but this is common in the Monsoon season.  I'm sure it has happened in the past when wx records weren't recorded years and years ago.  Meantime, lets focus on the positive effects and what REALLY matters and that is the MOISTURE!  Bring it on Nature!

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

You beat me to it with the cool down coming I am very excited.  Lezak was on TV yesterday talking about a strong cold front next week and some cooler temps that will have many of us thinking about fall.  It was good to see the Ozarks region of Missouri get big rains last night and in some cases too much at once, with some major flooding going on this morning.

Speaking of Autumn, as the start of met Autumn looms in the not so distant future, Labor Day weekend could be shaping up to be an ideal wx pattern for much of the central U.S. and encompassing a lot of our members.  The JMA weeklies from last week indicate a lock step similar CFSv2 500mb pattern over North America.

Temp/Precip...nice pocket of BN temps over your area and points south....wet signal for the S Plains...

Screen Shot 2022-08-09 at 6.48.16 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-08-09 at 6.48.24 AM.png

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48 minutes ago, Clinton said:

You beat me to it with the cool down coming I am very excited.  Lezak was on TV yesterday talking about a strong cold front next week and some cooler temps that will have many of us thinking about fall.  It was good to see the Ozarks region of Missouri get big rains last night and in some cases too much at once, with some major flooding going on this morning.

That will be welcome news as HS football practice has started in Nebraska.  My son is now a Junior, wow I feel old, then I think I also have a daughter that will be a Senior in college this Fall.  Whoa.  Starting tomorrow through Sunday the death ridge moves in again.  No rainfall and unfortunately, very light winds can make a football practice in pads pretty tough.  They had their first practice yesterday and my son came home and said it wasn't too bad as the dew point was only in the upper 50's.  I've taught him well.  😂

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

As day light begins to emerge to my east, it is a bit breezy this morning but a very comfy 66F/36F.  Not much humidity yet but I'm sure that'll return come later this week.  I'll post some pics and vids from our day yesterday a little later.

For now, I'm starting to see and really believe the worst of Summer is heading our way for many on here.  It's nice to see a plan come together when nature decides to cooperate!  By mid month, the "Attack of the Death Ridge" is showing clear signs of happening now.  @Andie @Iceresistance I think ya'll will be out doing rain dances later this month.  Massive blocking and a lucrative pattern is poised to set up a wetter/cooler pattern for the S Plains.

Pretty neat 0z EPS animation showing how the "dry hole" over the central US/TX fills up with precip Week 2...

image.gif

 

Here comes the cooling trend my friends!  From the 15th and beyond don't look like the "dog days of summer"...that's likely whats happening right now for you guys that are torching.

1.gif

Could not be more ready. 
Rain dance drums in the distance!!

I am Soooo weary of summer!!  I know that this Niña will repeat next year but we need a break.  
 

I’m being invaded by fire ants seeking water and last night caught a gecko in the house doing the same.  I keep water out for them on the porch.  Every living thing is desperate.

3pm. Rain out there. 
 

C3056627-9A23-408B-95B8-9EAC546E21EF.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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5:30 pm.  It all looks good on radar but all it delivered was thunder, clouds, and some cooler temps.  
Pretty typical of summer storms here unless they have more moisture behind it.  
 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 78/58 there was no rain fall, it was the first time in 9 days that the mean was below average. The overnight low both in MBY and  at GR was 57  For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high of 98 was set in 1944 and the record low of 45 was set in 1972. At the current time it is clear and 63. The several days look to be uneventful with mostly sunny skies and temperatures cooler than average it will continue to be dry.

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Big change thanks to the front.  
Low of 78 last night.  We’ll see 98 today. And low of 77 tonight.  
100’s return Sunday. 
 

What a relief. A much needed break for the mind.  We are all so tired from endless 100-111(our max). 
PS- Send Fall 😎👍

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Gorgeous day today. Highs in the 70s and lows in the low 50s. A few spots might see upper 40s tomorrow nite. Quite nippy for August. Tons of sunshine, until further notice. It stays dry all week ( and no real humid airmasses anytime soon) and 70s look to dominate my area.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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97*   41% humidity.  
Nice dark clouds to the S/SE of me. They’re moving away from me but nice to see the atmosphere much more dynamic.  
 

6F668021-01AB-4DC1-8F4B-1330389488DE.jpeg

AEDE9C32-17DF-4EA6-9698-8B65DB571147.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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85 degrees, increasing clouds. Seeing a few building cumulonimbus.

KJKL_loop (22).gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 hours ago, Andie said:

Big change thanks to the front.  
Low of 78 last night.  We’ll see 98 today. And low of 77 tonight.  
100’s return Sunday. 
 

What a relief. A much needed break for the mind.  We are all so tired from endless 100-111(our max). 
PS- Send Fall 😎👍

Is that your first below 100 in almost a month? ⛈️

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Wet evening! 

2022-08-10 18_07_29-Photos.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The Euro still seems to be going all in on some much cooler weather beginning next week and possibly lasting through the end of the month.  The MJO also looks like it will cooperate as well going through phases 2 and 3.  Hopefully those needing rain will be able to merry it up with the cooler air.

 

0d40d5_bc75bfbfa9e040079c75bfc87b45c706~mv2.webp

 

0d40d5_6e613f3368ef43ecbc9f606ac21559d7~mv2.webp

ecmwf_T2ma_us_34.png

CPC forecast:

0d40d5_ed838c28aab34ed597798038042c1fd0~mv2.webp

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Great news Clinton!   
We had an awesome day. Cloudy, some thunder. Rain in North Tx. It missed me but the air was nice.   
It’s 74 at 8 pm.  Cloudy.  Nice.  
Everyone’s breathing a sigh of relief! 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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5 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Is that your first below 100 in almost a month? ⛈️

Yup. 😳

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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21 minutes ago, Andie said:

Great news Clinton!   
We had an awesome day. Cloudy, some thunder. Rain in North Tx. It missed me but the air was nice.   
It’s 74 at 8 pm.  Cloudy.  Nice.  
Everyone’s breathing a sigh of relief! 

Latest release looks even better for Texas.

 

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

Not so great for those further north, drought conditions are forecasted to worsen and expand for northern MO, eastern Neb and Iowa.

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It looks as though all that heat and pressure moves northward. Texas may have more normal conditions, albeit hot it won’t be killing us /literally.  
What a summer.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We are now have10 days of August in the record books and at Grand Rapids the mean so far this month is 75.4 that is a departure of +3.2. There has been 0.78” of rain fall (of that 0.70” fell on the 3rd ) The official high for the month so far is 89 and the low so far is 57. 

The official high/low yesterday at Grand Rapids was 83/57 with low humidity it was another great summer day. There was a reported trace of rain all and for the day there was a reported 93% of possible sunshine. The overnight low both at GRR and here in MBY was 66 that is the current reading here in MBY with the sun now starting to show itself. For today the average H/L is 85/62 the record high of 96 was in 1947 and the record low of 43 was in 1967. The sun rise today is 6:44 and the sunset is 8:50.

 

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Temps really dropped last night in the area, I had a low of 62 but some upper 50s were reported in the area.  Near average temps today but the heat will crank up beginning tomorrow and last through the weekend.  Much cooler temps return next week with highs in the low 80s and possibly some days in the upper 70s!

Tab2FileL.png

 

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Rise n Shine from Park City, Utah!  The place where the U.S. hosted the 2002 Winter Olympics.  It’s also known for having the “Greatest Snow on Earth”.  Why?  It has to do with the high elevation and low humidity in the region that produce the perfect powder!  Another factoid is the increased snowfall due to “lake effect” from the Great Salt Lake.  It never freezes over bc of the 12% salt content.  I never knew it didn’t freeze up in the winter.  As a result, Park City receives over 320” per year.  All in all, this is a wonderful ski town nestled in the Wasatch Mountains that has so much to give in all 4 seasons.

The day before we went to Antelope Island and took a trip around this expansive island.  Sadly, the water levels are at historic lows and I was able to walk about a mile from shore to the lake level.  The water smelled from the bacteria content of the water.  It was neat to dip my feet into it and stand in the Great Salt.

 

17BC836C-EBA2-406C-921F-573FB79900A6.jpeg

 

 

 

The next video shows the different layers of the lakes levels over the span of 10,000-20,000 years.

E1D95E11-3D96-4253-B100-24470E1B4E04.jpeg

 

Yesterday, we visited the Olympic Park and saw some kiddos practicing freestyle ski jumps in the pool area.

3EA8FAA0-0B13-47CF-BDA5-35CA58B94A39.jpeg

 

The Monsoon is starting to pick up activity here last night and today/tomorrow.  I’ll try to capture some photos and post them if I get any good shots.  I saw one storm in the distance but this wasn’t really a good pic from the car.

564B95EA-2F58-4F41-BBC9-45BC3B7C7511.jpeg

Lastly, our view from the condo facing the slopes…

96CEC8E0-54A2-4B4C-97A9-06F507084DC2.jpeg

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Tom said:

Rise n Shine from Park City, Utah!  The place where the US hosted the 2002 Winter Olympics.  It’s also known for having the “Greatest Snow on Earth”.  Why?  It has to do with the high elevation and low humidity in the region that produce the perfect powder!  Another factoid is the increased snowfall due to “lake effect” from the Great Salt Lake.  It never freezes over bc  of the 12% salt content.  I never knew it didn’t freeze up in the winter.  As a result, Park City receives over 320” per year.  All in all, this is a wonderful ski town nestled in the Wasatch Mountains that has so much to give in all 4 seasons.

The day before we went to Antelope Island and took a trip around this expansive island.  Sadly, the water levels are at historic lows and I was able to walk about a mile from shore to the lake level.  The water smelled from the bacteria content of the water.  It was neat to dip my feet into it and stand in the Great Salt.

 

17BC836C-EBA2-406C-921F-573FB79900A6.jpeg

 

 

IMG_2029.MOV 31.65 MB · 0 downloads  

 

The next video shows the different layers of the lakes levels over the span of 10,000-20,000 years.

 

IMG_2033.MOV 44.42 MB · 0 downloads  

 

Yesterday, we visited the Olympic Park and saw some kiddos practicing  freestyle ski jumps in the pool area.

3EA8FAA0-0B13-47CF-BDA5-35CA58B94A39.jpeg

IMG_2080.MOV 12.4 MB · 0 downloads  

The Monsoon is starting to pick up activity here last night and today/tomorrow.  I’ll try to capture some photos and post them if I get any good shots.  I saw one storm in the distance but this wasn’t really a good pic from the car.

564B95EA-2F58-4F41-BBC9-45BC3B7C7511.jpeg

Lastly, our view from the condo facing the slopes…

96CEC8E0-54A2-4B4C-97A9-06F507084DC2.jpeg

 

 

IMG_2029.MOV

E1D95E11-3D96-4253-B100-24470E1B4E04.jpeg

Are you going to have a chance to get out to the salt flats?  Not sure if they still race out there are not.

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