August 2022 Observation & Discussion

[Tom]

9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Are you going to have a chance to get out to the salt flats?  Not sure if they still race out there are not.

Unfortunately, no I will not be able to but I was thinking about it until I noticed it was 2 hours west of SLC.  We are heading back towards Arizona tomorrow morning.  We might stop for a night in Kanab, UT depending on how things work out with the weather. 

[Andie]

56 @ Park City sounds nice! 
Pour me a cup!   I’ll be right over.  
 

I’m @ 75 headed for 96.  
Clear and  dry. 

[Tom]

Here's another look off the 0z EPS as @Clinton mentioned wrt precip chances for E NE/KC peeps and S Plains members...next Mon/Tue looking promising...

[Timmy Supercell]

I didn't think we could have highs below 80 in mid-August here.

[Iceresistance]

19 hours ago, Clinton said:

The Euro still seems to be going all in on some much cooler weather beginning next week and possibly lasting through the end of the month.  The MJO also looks like it will cooperate as well going through phases 2 and 3.  Hopefully those needing rain will be able to merry it up with the cooler air.

 

 

CPC forecast:

JB has mentioned that there is a higher risk of hurricane impact in United States within a month

[Clinton]

14 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

JB has mentioned that there is a higher risk of hurricane impact in United States within a month

The LRC also suggest a strong tropical system developing between Florida and Cuba in about 2 to 3 weeks.  It's been a slow season on the Atlantic side.

[westMJim]

While I don't think this will happen it is none the less in the forecast.
MIZ085-120800-  
NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-  
INCLUDING THE CITY OF SENEY  
253 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2022  
   
LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
SUNNY. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.    
TONIGHT  
CLEAR. PATCHY FOG AND FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOL WITH  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT WINDS.
Yes that the says patchy fog and frost. Just goes to show you how short summers really are in parts of Michigan!

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Tom]

I just witnessed a cell that developed right overhead while driving around town.  Had some really good downpours.  Snapped a few pics and a couple videos.  Nothing crazy…but certainly welcomed for the area.  
 

 

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

The LRC also suggest a strong tropical system developing between Florida and Cuba in about 2 to 3 weeks.  It's been a slow season on the Atlantic side.

Just like 1999 and 2004

[OttumwaSnomow]

Just got a shower. .13  so  .45 in Aug which is better than zero. Another hot day  of 93F.  Day 21 90 or above. When will our next  significant  rain come?  Probably  September,  thats been the norm after a dry July and Aug. Next weeks seem to be diving into mo.

[Andie]

If you have clear skies tonight, tomorrow or next night step outside and check out the Perseid Meteor Shower.  
These are the remnants of the Swift-Tuttle comet.  
 

[CentralNebWeather]

Last rain here was 2 weeks ago. With the hot temps, things have dried significantly. Dry land corn is now stressed. Yards that were green last week are really suffering. We’ve been lucky to get all the rain in July. My daughter was in Lincoln yesterday and said yards looked bad. 

[CentralNebWeather]

[Andie]

A tad bit ugly around here.  
Ants coming in desperate for water.  
I’m in the darkest area. 
 

[Tom]

Happy Friday!  Today will be a travel day for me as we head back to the PHX valley.  There is a really good chance of numerous storms on our way back.  Hopefully they won't be to bad on our path.  Meantime, there appears to be a really good shot for some soaking rains where some need it most.  The battle among the models is interesting...

0z Euro...

 

0z UKIE...

 

Is the 0z GFS out to lunch???

 

Lastly, the rain dances shall commence post 20th for our hearty Texan @Andie...I had a good feeling the worst of summer was just around the horizon when I saw the JMA not back down on the MJO forecast.  Good signs!

[Tom]

@Andie, the EPS Weeklies are in lock step with the JMA weeklies and suggest the next 45 days to be wet, wet, wet...nature will fill up those lakes and reservoirs!  #4CornersMonsoon....Boom!

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 80/60 there was a reported trace of rain fall and 88% of possible sunshine. The overnight low in MBY so far is 54 while at GRR the low so far has been 52. In the UP the current temperature at Marquette is 39 so it was a cold night in parts of Michigan. At the current time with this sun now poking is self in the east is 54. For today the average H/L is 81/52 that is down from yesterday as we start our downward trend for H/L’s that will continue. The record high for today is 95 set in 1988 and the record low of 45 was set in 1954. The only chance of rain in the next week looks to be on Saturday as the rest of the week looks to be dry with temperatures just a little below average.

[Andie]

33 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Andie, the EPS Weeklies are in lock step with the JMA weeklies and suggest the next 45 days to be wet, wet, wet...nature will fill up those lakes and reservoirs!  #4CornersMonsoon....Boom!

Awesome Tom!!!!  Thanks!

I’m SO stoked!  🌧⛈🌧⛈

Golf course has 2 1/2” x 3’ cracks in it!

[Niko]

It is a nippy 53F currently under deep blue sunny skies w/ no humidity at all. Absolutely gorgeous. Highs today in the 70s.

Weak disturbance coming tomorrow might sparkle a few clouds and scattered rainshowers, but no real biggie. Highs will managed to climb only to near 70F on Saturday and 72 on Sunday. A taste of Autumn is certainly in the air here in S MI.

[Clinton]

Very average summer day around KC today with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.  A short dose of summer heat over the weekend and then major changes begin starting Monday.  It now looks like I will have multiple days with highs in the 70s next week with heavy rains possible Tuesday.

[Clinton]

52 minutes ago, Niko said:

It is a nippy 53F currently under deep blue sunny skies w/ no humidity at all. Absolutely gorgeous. Highs today in the 70s.

Weak disturbance coming tomorrow might sparkle a few clouds and scattered rainshowers, but no real biggie. Highs will managed to climb only to near 70F on Saturday and 72 on Sunday. A taste of Autumn is certainly in the air here in S MI.

Your forecast has me dreaming of October which is my favorite month of the year.  Check out the Euro Weeklies 46 day forecast, if this snow were to happen in northern Canada our fall cold fronts would have much more of a bite than they've had the last several years!

[Niko]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Your forecast has me dreaming of October which is my favorite month of the year.  Check out the Euro Weeklies 46 day forecast, if this snow were to happen in northern Canada our fall cold fronts would have much more of a bite than they've had the last several years!

I am speechless. Very impressive indeed. Lookout....this has eyes on some very chilly air over a lot of us.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Not to burst anyone's bubble, but go back on this forum and look at every year for the past whatever amount you'd like to, and you'll see the exact same posts of "look at all that snow fill up in Canada" and "look at how early all that snow is showing up in Canada", which then of course leads to "fall is coming early" or "we're going straight to winter", etc.

And then is many have noted, we don't have a fall and instead have Indian Summer that lasts until late November or December before switching to winter.

Sigh.....

[OmahaSnowFan]

Dry.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Dry.

Looks like it won't be improving any time soon.

[Thunder98]

Today I learned that Slidell, LA received 102.63" of rain last year!

 

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 80/52 there was no rain fall and the day had 92% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 59 and it looks like the official overnight low will be 58. For today the record high of 97 was set in 1918 and the record low of 44 was set in 1941. At the current time it is raining here with a temperature of 61. The forecast calls for highs in the upper 60’s today with a good amount of rain. If it indeed stays in the upper 60’s that will be the 1^st time it has not reached 70 or better since June 8^th also it would be the 1^st time it has not reached 70 or better since 2012 on any August 13.

 

[Tom]

I'm back in the saddle after a long day of driving 12 hours straight from Park City, UT.  I decided to take I-15 south through UT instead of Hwy 89 so we can zip through UT quicker (speed limit is 80mph on the interstate) but then once we got off I-15 and headed East into Zion National Park the traffic slowed us down.  I was glad to we did take this route bc I captured some cool vids of the Monsoonal rains that literally formed right over head.  A Flash Flood warning was issued on all of our phones simultaneously and through the car radio while we were driving through the Park.  I've never experienced that before.  They really emphasize these flood alerts around here to prevent people from doing dumb things.  

All in all, Utah is a gorgeous state that brings diverse weather to various regions of the state and epic views of the Wasatch Mtn's, The Great Salt Lake, the desert valleys and national Parks.  On my bucket list of places to visit are MOAB and the Salt Flats.

Meantime, on the final leg of the trip down through Flagstaff and near Sedona, down into the Valley of PHX, the torrential storms from earlier in the afternoon transformed into a stratiform rain for the last 2-3 hours of the road trip.  In all my years of coming out here I've never seen the deserts with low visibility and a low cloud deck from the steady rains.  It felt like I was in a different state.  The smells of the moisture in the air is noticeable.  As a weather enthusiast, I can sense something different is happening out here and I think that nature is delivering a promising wx pattern that may shift things for the better. 

I'll post the pics/vids in the next post...

[Tom]

One of the peaks towering 11,752 feet up into the air near Heber City, UT….

 

Then we drove into Zion Nat’l Park…

[Andie]

Thanks, Tom!  Zion is a gift to this country. 
My husband’s an Arizona boy so we get out west a good deal. Grand Canyon, Sedona, and Zion, Ut. are amazing and  you go away feeling uplifted and grateful you live in such a beautiful country. Enjoy!

99 today, then 4 days 100-102, followed by 4 days in high 90’s with 20-40% chance rain.  
Perhaps this stretch of unrelenting heat is breaking down.  

[CentralNebWeather]

What looked like great rain chances here from Sunday night through Tuesday continue to decrease in the forecast. Looks much cooler next week, but the drought conditions will only worsen. Hard to make up for a drought in August or September. Have to hope for some early seasons lows to come up from the Southwest. Has happened many times in the past. 

[Tom]

On 8/12/2022 at 5:38 AM, Clinton said:

Your forecast has me dreaming of October which is my favorite month of the year.  Check out the Euro Weeklies 46 day forecast, if this snow were to happen in northern Canada our fall cold fronts would have much more of a bite than they've had the last several years!

It's also a + sign that the CFSv2 is seeing AN Precip smack dab in the middle of Canada where the North American Vortex is likely to spin up...

[Bryan1117]

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

What looked like great rain chances here from Sunday night through Tuesday continue to decrease in the forecast. Looks much cooler next week, but the drought conditions will only worsen. Hard to make up for a drought in August or September. Have to hope for some early seasons lows to come up from the Southwest. Has happened many times in the past. 

NWS still has 1.00" - 1.50" in the grids here from Sunday night through Tuesday, however I think this might be wishful thinking... some models are starting to come in much drier (GFS, etc) and this has been the trend all year (it's hard to break a pattern like the one we are in). I will also welcome the cooler temperatures incoming, however we could really use the moisture in Eastern Nebraska.

[Andie]

Things are changing!  The coast of Texas will be receiving relief and perhaps too much love. 

The moisture level in the atmosphere is forecast to be near record levels for August as the disturbance comes ashore, so very heavy rain is likely. In low-lying areas and when one thunderstorm cell trails after another, flooding could occur.  The rain is forecast to be heaviest tomorrow into Monday.  Foxweather.com 

 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

Things are changing!  The coast of Texas will be receiving relief and perhaps too much love. 

The moisture level in the atmosphere is forecast to be near record levels for August as the disturbance comes ashore, so very heavy rain is likely. In low-lying areas and when one thunderstorm cell trails after another, flooding could occur.  The rain is forecast to be heaviest tomorrow into Monday.  Foxweather.com 

 

Out of whack just like everything else.  Elsewhere over the Atlantic the atmosphere is so dry it's deader than a door nail.

[westMJim]

Just went over the one inch mark for todays rain fall. So far the high at Grand Rapids has only been 61 and that happened at 5AM. During the day time the temperatures have been in the upper 50's. If it stays below 65 until midnight it will be the coldest maximum for any August 13 in Grand Rapids history. At the current time there is light rain falling in MBY with a temperature of 58.

[OttumwaSnomow]

10 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Just went over the one inch mark for todays rain fall. So far the high at Grand Rapids has only been 61 and that happened at 5AM. During the day time the temperatures have been in the upper 50's. If it stays below 65 until midnight it will be the coldest maximum for any August 13 in Grand Rapids history. At the current time there is light rain falling in MBY with a temperature of 58.

Im driving from Ottumwa  Iowa to Ely Minnesota.  Was 84 near  desmoines.  Now  91 my home, its been 68 to 70F much of trip. Every  time i travel I realize  how much horrible  weather southeast iowa gets. Oh most of trip north of i80 is lush green.

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

NWS still has 1.00" - 1.50" in the grids here from Sunday night through Tuesday, however I think this might be wishful thinking... some models are starting to come in much drier (GFS, etc) and this has been the trend all year (it's hard to break a pattern like the one we are in). I will also welcome the cooler temperatures incoming, however we could really use the moisture in Eastern Nebraska.

The setup for that time period is great for heavy rain for your place and mine, but there isn't much of a margin for error.  It just needs to setup like the Euro and ICON and 1-3 inches looks real possible.

[BMT]

1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Im driving from Ottumwa  Iowa to Ely Minnesota.  Was 84 near  desmoines.  Now  91 my home, its been 68 to 70F much of trip. Every  time i travel I realize  how much horrible  weather southeast iowa gets. Oh most of trip north of i80 is lush green.

Going fishing?  I’ll be making that trip here in a few weeks!