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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This weekend into next week already feel like a lost cause. Should be a near repeat of what we just saw, maybe a smidge cooler.

Remember the average warmest day of the year at KSEA has yet to arrive, and the warmest average month is August (since the 1970s.)

Isnt warmest day tomorrow? 

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9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

True, and again that corresponds with the midsummer period that we've been harping on.

Obviously it's the historic peak of summer and of the 4CH's influence anyways, but it also has been the period that's seen the most disproportionate warming and 500mb height increase versus any other point in the year (aside from mid to late January, which perhaps coincidentally marks the seasonal inverse) as the expansion of the regional high pressure dome has created a persistent and sort of self-sustaining annual feedback loop across this stretch of calendar. One which at least for our latitude seems able to counteract any other sort of pattern forcing, be it ENSO or MJO driven. See James Jones' breakdown above for the nice visual evidence of it.

The climatological N/S temperature gradient during the summer makes our warm season averages seriously vulnerable to slight changes in 4CH strength.

That, and the 4CH is a pretty dynamic feature and interacts favorably with other Pacific high systems, as we've seen in recent years with its expansion north and westward. Causing more and stronger heatwaves ahead of the more broad AGW curve.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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20 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

18z much better - through next weekend atleast. Still looks to be a day or two with 2high temps, especially for PDX. hopefully fleeting. 

Looks perfectly disgusting for us here. Thursday is literally the only day on the entire run below 85 through Day 10. With another extended 90+ stretch beginning Sunday.

Edited by BLI snowman
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5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Isnt warmest day tomorrow? 

I think so, in the next day or two.

Sun angles, on the other hand... ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The climatological N/S temperature gradient during the summer makes our warm season averages seriously vulnerable to slight changes in 4CH strength.

That, and the 4CH is a pretty dynamic feature and interacts favorably with other Pacific high systems, as we've seen in recent years with its expansion north and westward. Causing more and stronger heatwaves ahead of the more broad AGW curve.

True. And while we may joke about our Sacramento Valley-fication up here, locations like Redding and Grants Pass, even with their own distinguishing topographical drivers that exacerbate their heat, really aren't too far from Portland and Seattle from a latitude standpoint. It stands to reason that a slight change to the annual midsummer 500mb calculus will have really noticeable impacts for us just a few hundred miles to their north.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

True. And while we may joke about our Sacramento Valley-fication up here, locations like Redding and Grants Pass, even with their own distinguishing topographical drivers that exacerbate their heat, really aren't too far from Portland and Seattle from a latitude standpoint. It stands to reason that a slight change to the annual midsummer 500mb calculus will have really noticeable impacts for us just a few hundred miles to their north.

The geographical similarities are pretty striking too, particularly for the Willamette Valley.

One could reason that in a distant past, Redding and Portland weren't such distant climatological cousins during the warm season.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

True, and again that corresponds with the midsummer period that we've been harping on.

Obviously it's the historic peak of summer and of the 4CH's influence anyways, but it also has been the period that's seen the most disproportionate warming and 500mb height increase versus any other point in the year (aside from mid to late January, which perhaps coincidentally marks the seasonal inverse) as the expansion of the regional high pressure dome has created a persistent and sort of self-sustaining annual feedback loop across this stretch of calendar. One which at least for our latitude seems able to counteract any other sort of pattern forcing, be it ENSO or MJO driven. See James Jones' breakdown above for the nice visual evidence of it.

Oh, I’m completely on board with the feedback effects of the ongoing drought. I think it’s absolutely a factor in its obvious expansion. But even though that can affect the long wave pattern in some ways, the pattern still has to be conducive to said expansion and, in turn, persistence. As it was, it had been arguably since 2018 since we’d seen a traditional mid summer heat-a-thon. I guess the argument could be made for late July 2020, but despite the back-to-back 100’s at PDX it wasn’t exactly a 21st century heavy hitter and the pattern wasn’t particularly impressive.

I guess I’d be more doom and gloom about throwing climo out the window if indeed last week’s inferno were the result of just a pure extension of the easterly-displaced ridge.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Very strange and not predicted in the forecast, but it dumped rain for about 10 minutes this morning then stopped.  It was forecasted to hit 81F today, but underperforming with our high only hitting 74F so far.  Some dark looking rain clouds to my southwest.

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19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Oh, I’m completely on board with the feedback effects of the ongoing drought. I think it’s absolutely a factor in its obvious expansion. But even though that can affect the long wave pattern in some ways, the pattern still has to be conducive to said expansion and, in turn, persistence. As it was, it had been arguably since 2018 since we’d seen a traditional mid summer heat-a-thon. I guess the argument could be made for late July 2020, but despite the back-to-back 100’s at PDX it wasn’t exactly a 21st century heavy hitter and the pattern wasn’t particularly impressive.

I guess I’d be more doom and gloom about throwing climo out the window if indeed last week’s inferno were the result of just a pure extension of the easterly-displaced ridge.

Kind of illustrates the point, though. It doesn't really take some heavy hitting 500mb block anymore for us to produce midsummer temps that at least by 20th century standards would have been near record level. It's a noticeable change and one that even with the basic ubiquity of a warming climate still appears to heavily outpace the rest of the year.

Edited by BLI snowman
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29 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks perfectly disgusting for us here. Thursday is literally the only day on the entire run below 85 through Day 10. With another extended 90+ stretch beginning Sunday.

Heres 12z vs 18z high temps for Pearson. Better short term! mid-range is worse but atleast not on the worst days. long term good. 100% will verify guaranteed

image.png.851233c07be4f49882bb648d4775b24b.png

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WILDFIRE UPDATE (Welcome to August Edition!)

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/1/22 

Washington - 6 (Six new fires broke out with all posing no significant threat, with the majority being controlled or already put out. A brushfire along I-90 is fast growing, but poses no significant threat, crews on the scene.  Likely started by cigarette.  No major fires in the state. Total raises from 18 to 23, again numbers don't reflect new fires that have been put out already.) Total: 23

Oregon - 21 (Sadly several fires have sparked over Oregon, a total of 21 new fires, most north of Klamath Falls due to lightning and sparked ash. Crews are working on containing as many as possible. Several fires have sparked west of Madras as well. Total has increased from 25 to 49.  The most fires Oregon has had at once so far this year.  Significant progress has been done on the major fires in Northern California along the Oregon-California border.) Total: 49

Idaho - 0 (No new fires, a handful put out. Two fires that were downgraded in significance yesterday have increased to being major fires again.  There are two major fires in the state. Total fires decreases from 9 to 6. ) Total: 6

British Columbia - 29 (Fires continue to increase, but thankfully many are naturally not spreading as BC Fire Crews are having a poor time at containing any actual fires.  There are two major fires, Lytton and Okanogan Falls which are named Nohomin Creek Fire and the Keremeos Creek Fire.  Total has jumped from sixty fires to seventy three.) Total: 73 

SMOKE UPDATE

Smoke models show significant smoke in California looping northward and into Oregon.  Portland metro will start seeing smoke by Tuesday and other parts of the state seeing it sooner.  Any smoke that reaches Washington will be high aloft with very little chance of it being low.  Smoke will be thickest around Medford, Ashland, and the Rogue Valley.  Haze can be expected in the mid layers around Eugene and Salem in the coming days if models remain true.  In the meantime, air advisories are in effect for Jackson County and Klamath County only. 

Smoke from BC's fires flew out the Fraser Valley and mixed into the air of the Lower Mainland and Whatcom County Monday morning, but it was quite light thankfully. The inner valleys of BC will see significant smoke as fires continue to burn. 

image.gif

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22 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The geographical similarities are pretty striking too, particularly for the Willamette Valley.

One could reason that in a distant past, Redding and Portland weren't such distant climatological cousins during the warm season.

There are some key geographical differences too. The Siskiyous and Klamaths are much higher than the relatively puny Oregon Coast Range up north. More like the Cascades in terms of rain and moisture shadowing.

The warm season climo in the Rogue Valley and Siskiyou County probably has more in common with Bend than with Portland or Eugene.

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91 here and at the wunderground station down the street and I suppose we've about topped out for the day. At least ten degrees cooler than yesterday for sure.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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18z GFS has a few different troughs swing through.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

ecmwf-weeklies-c00-namer-z500_anom-1659312000-1659312000-1663286400-20.thumb.gif.cce54d7834661dd3a8e0942b800b3ce9.gifAngry Tom Hanks GIF by Laff

Talk about some crazy fluctuation.  The Tom Hanks graphic nicely sums it up!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I really really dont want to do work if you guys cant tell

Andrew will be with you shortly..

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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A lot of these upcoming troughs seem pretty Washinton centric.  Wish they would dig deeper.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of these upcoming troughs seem pretty Washinton centric.  Wish they would dig deeper.

Sounds familiar.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sounds familiar.

Because the region only exists as a state of mind within sight of Puget Sound. :P

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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I have been on vacation for 2+ weeks.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Kind of illustrates the point, though. It doesn't really take some heavy hitting 500mb block anymore for us to produce midsummer temps that at least by 20th century standards would have been near record level. It's a noticeable change and one that even with the basic ubiquity of a warming climate still appears to heavily outpace the rest of the year.

I think there’s a difference between looking at the larger, 500mb picture compared to what are the more persistent feedback affects which a likely more appreciable at the lower and mid levels. I’d say it’s pretty reasonable to assume that a 590dm ridge at 500mb is better equipped now more than ever to get us to 100 degrees based on that. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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