Jump to content

August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

😱😱😱 the completely accurate Farmers' Almanac!

image.png.155dd79056dc59bf2a8d50e56cc9dc33.png

Lol. I fully expect a nuclear blowtorch out here until proven otherwise. Especially during the autumn months. 

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

A repeat of this please

20220804_080927.gif

I'll never forget that one!

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Partly sunny and pleasant here this morning. A few clouds up along the ridgeline. 

I see Phoenix got 0.58" of rain this morning with some areas in the 1-2" range. What a blessing for them. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Maybe you'll get very lucky and a February 2010 repeat somehow will suddenly happen there next winter??

Nah this is almost certainly a western US centric winter. All signs point that way (powerful modoki niña in conjunction with descending +QBO and inclining solar cycle *screams* -PNA).

Could be some -NAO thrown in the mix, but without a subtropical jet, snowfall will be difficult to come by here. Result is usually a miller-B storm track that puts us in the dryslot.

We’ll probably get our turn during the next El Niño.

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Recent MJJ ONI came in a -0.9C. Last weeks ENSO 3.4 region reading was -0.7C. 

  • Like 5

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

July PDO came in at an astonishing -2.48. The lowest such reading in July since 1955. 

The only July's with lower PDO have been 1955, 1950, 1933, 1894, 1883. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
  • Like 5

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Florida is weird. Yesterday’s low of 72°F occurred at 2pm in association with thunderstorms, then warmed right back up to 90°F 1hr later, and barely dropped out of the 80s last night.

Also it looks like DC was warmer than here last night. :lol: I know my climate sucks balls but sometimes I forget how awful it actually is relative to the rest of the US at 39N latitude. Probably won’t drop below 80 tonight back home.

  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

July PDO came in at an astonishing -2.48. The lowest such reading in July since 1955. 

The only July's with lower PDO have been 1955, 1950, 1933, 1894, 1883. 

Also fits the bill for a rapidly descending +QBO and west-based La Niña.

Gonna be some steroidal -PNA periods this winter. 

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Phil said:

Also fits the bill for a rapidly descending +QBO and west-based La Niña.

Gonna be some steroidal -PNA periods this winter. 

Can't freaking wait. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Florida is weird. Yesterday’s low of 72°F occurred at 2pm in association with thunderstorms, then warmed right back up to 90°F 1hr later, and barely dropped out of the 80s last night.

Also it looks like DC was warmer than here in FL last night. :lol: I know my climate sucks balls but sometimes I forget how awful it actually is relative to the rest of the US at 39N latitude. Probably won’t drop below 80 tonight back home.

The founders greatest mistake

  • Like 1
  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As bad as much of the US (including PNW) has had it this summer, Texas has had it worse.

This is legitimately shocking.

 

  • Like 1
  • scream 1
  • Sick 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also fits the bill for a rapidly descending +QBO and west-based La Niña.

Gonna be some steroidal -PNA periods this winter. 

July this year was dead ringer for July 1955.

  • lol 1
  • scream 1
  • Sick 1
  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Feels like fall this morning. 

Perfect day... 82 here in MN with dewpoints in the 50s and full sun while our yard got watered this morning at home. 

  • Like 3
  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Got down to 58 here this morning. Didn’t get anything measurable here but that’s not too surprising with NW flow. Our odds for something meaningful are better next week anyways. 

NW flow is usually good to me, and last night fit that pattern. Vancouver juts out into the Strait of Georgia, so it means the greater friction of air against land causing things to pile up and generate lift when the flow comes ashore. It’s particularly good if there’s modified arctic air involved, as it can mean a strait effect juicing up the moisture much like the famous lake effect of the Great Lakes does. It was delightful the night that happened late last December; Vancouver got about twice the snow as points further east.

  • Like 2
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

NW flow is usually good to me, and last night fit that pattern. Vancouver juts out into the Strait of Georgia, so it means the greater friction of air against land causing things to pile up and generate lift when the flow comes ashore. It’s particularly good if there’s modified arctic air involved, as it can mean a strait effect juicing up the moisture much like the famous lake effect of the Great Lakes does. It was delightful the night that happened late last December; Vancouver got about twice the snow as points further east.

Yeah we may have had some mist last night but 90% of the time we don’t get much here with a system diving out of the NW. I do like our chances with S/SW flow early next week though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

As bad as much of the US (including PNW) has had it this summer, Texas has had it worse.

This is legitimately shocking.

 

Dang, that's crazy, so 11x times as many days. Their suppose to hit 101 tomorrow and then the next week the forecast will be upper 90's/100. There doesn't seem to be any relief in sight. They are also in a exceptional drought. I just read that the water they do have is stagnant so its really unhealthy with higher than normal levels of bacteria, parasites, molds and deadly amoeba. ☹🤢

  • Sick 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

July this year was dead ringer for July 1955.

Large scale homogeneities > small scale divergence.

Also, 2+2=4.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We had 0.48" of rain in July, which is below the long term average, but more than we have seen in recent Julys. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Large scale homogeneities > small scale divergence.

Also, 2+2=4.

Nice that we scored a decent summer thanks to some more small scale divergence.   We are on a lucky roll with summers lately!

  • Popcorn 1
  • Downvote 7
  • Troll 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice that we scored a decent summer thanks to some more small scale divergence.   We are on a lucky roll with summers lately!

TROLOLOL

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice that we scored a decent summer thanks to some more small scale divergence.   We are on a lucky roll with summers lately!

Simply more 4CH influence than 1955, makes a difference on the fringes for 5-6 weeks during the summer.

Seasonally-discontinuous interdecadal variability is nothing new. Ask the Plains during the 1930s. Of course that didn’t always translate into the winter.

25 years later those same regions experienced the coolest/wettest decade of summers since the early/mid 19th century.

The current cycle of broad/poleward W-Hem z-cells (and by consequence, the seasonal enlargement of the 4CH) will attenuate, likewise. These base states are not “stable” at all, and can be terminated by relatively minor stimuli. Just needs to happen at the right moment in time.

Question is, when? Could be next year, could be in a decade. Though it usually happens during the inclining phase of the solar cycle.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Partly sunny and pleasant here this morning. A few clouds up along the ridgeline. 

I see Phoenix got 0.58" of rain this morning with some areas in the 1-2" range. What a blessing for them. 

christmas vacation the blessing GIF

  • lol 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Picked up a quarter inch of rain here. First rain in almost a month.

  • Like 5

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

This storm sat over the Reno airport yesterday and gave them more rain in 1 hour than they have had since Jan 1st - Aug 3rd

 

20220804_062128.jpg

Great pic.

  • Like 1
  • Downvote 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

This storm sat over the Reno airport yesterday and gave them more rain in 1 hour than they have had since Jan 1st - Aug 3rd

 

20220804_062128.jpg

Amazing pic. I flew over Reno yesterday, there were a lot of storms building over the Sierras already around noon. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...