August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[Doinko]

23 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Rolling dice or flipping coins to come up with forecasts is often more accurate than OFA.

They aren't accurate and half of the they don't even make sense lol, I think I've seen "mild and wet" in ND/MN while Texas is "cold and snowy". And then a hundred random articles about the "forecast" are made and a bunch of people believe them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see some kind of cool down and maybe rain in the northern areas towards the end of the month, at some point this pattern will at least temporarily flip. Looks like we could also see a minor trough the middle of next week. Ensembles seem to be moving that way. 

[Phishy Wx]

41 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Rolling dice or flipping coins to come up with forecasts is often more accurate than OFA.

Indeed

[Rubus Leucodermis]

19 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

They aren't accurate and half of the they don't even make sense lol, I think I've seen "mild and wet" in ND/MN while Texas is "cold and snowy". And then a hundred random articles about the "forecast" are made and a bunch of people believe them.

Yes, there is simply no there there. Their long-term weather forecasts are based on a 200+ year old trade secret developed by an individual who was not a scientist (and who obviously had no idea of all the meteorological knowledge gained in the past two centuries). Yet many people still take them seriously for some reason, despite in many years their forecasts being less accurate than what random chance would dictate.

[Doinko]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yes, there is simply no there there. Their long-term weather forecasts are based on a 200+ year old trade secret developed by an individual who was not a scientist (and who obviously had no idea of all the meteorological knowledge gained in the past two centuries). Yet many people still take them seriously for some reason, despite in many years their forecasts being less accurate than what random chance would dictate.

I think in 2016 or something the United Airlines CEO used the Farmers' Almanac to plan for a harsh winter...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doiinko said:

I think in 2016 or something the United Airlines CEO used the Farmers' Almanac to plan for a harsh winter...

Just goes to show, just because someone is successful does not mean they are smart!

[RentonHill]

Hoping to catch a bit of BA practice. Apparently their route is farther south this year

[RentonHill]

[TacomaWx]

70 at noon with some sunbreaks another nice day. 

[TacomaWx]

Not a bad euro run. Despite a couple hot days early next week the first half of the month might not end up too bad if it verifies. 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not a bad euro run. Despite a couple hot days early next week the first half of the month might not end up too bad if it verifies. 

2-3 too hot days for PDX. TBD for us...may scrape by with 1-2 90s away from the water. Which is doable. As long as that ending doesnt get delayed or weakened - which has never happened, ever - i can tolerate this

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Overcast and 64˚F at noon.

[RentonHill]

really gonna be threading the needle on this one

[Phishy Wx]

winter of 1933-34 Spokane only saw 9.5" of snow.  the lowest snow season on record.  pass

 

55-56 was pretty stellar though  83.2"

[Phishy Wx]

now forecasting 100 next Monday and 101 next Tuesday oof

 

only 76 out now, would be perfect except the smell of wildfire smoke in the air

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

winter of 1933-34 Spokane only saw 9.5" of snow.  the lowest snow season on record.  pass

 

55-56 was pretty stellar though  83.2"

I think 1933 was the winter PDX didn't have a freeze. December 1933 was a total washout, but the rest of that winter wasn't super wet. 

[BLI snowman]

Still 69 here at 1pm.  In August. Stunning.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Hoping to catch a bit of BA practice. Apparently their route is farther south this year

I was curious to hear that they don't have to close I-90 any more.  My employer used to charter a boat and do a customer appreciation event every year.  I went 3-4 years, and it was a lot of fun.  We were usually pretty close to the middle of the log boom.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Hoping to catch a bit of BA practice. Apparently their route is farther south this year

these are from 2014

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

these are from 2014

great pics, thanks for sharing. 

[RentonHill]

GEFS vs EPS high temps for Seattle and PDX. Interesting there is so much agreement for PDX. No cool bias down there??? Also interesting that GEFS has Sea/PDX basically same temps for week 2 instead of the usual gradient. 

[RentonHill]

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEFS vs EPS high temps for Seattle and PDX. Interesting there is so much agreement for PDX. No cool bias down there??? Also interesting that GEFS has Sea/PDX basically same temps for week 2 instead of the usual gradient. 

A lot more in the way of low level inversion potential around the sound.

[Deweydog]

Gorgeous day!

[TacomaWx]

71 here…not bad. Nice little break before we go near 90 early next week. 

[MossMan]

Feels and smells like September right now. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Feels and smells like September right now. 

Hmmm. September smells like brand new Trapper Keepers.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Sunny and 68°F.

[gusky]

On 8/2/2022 at 4:41 PM, Cloud said:

WB is a good one. Don’t really see it being beat by anything else out there. But if you’re on a budget Pivotal Plus will pretty much have all your weather needs as well for 1/3 of the price. 

I do have that too for the rest of the year, but the utter lack of ensemble charts is limiting.

[TT-SEA]

Tragic situation in the Snoqualmie Valley with the sun coming out now.  

True marine layer days have been in short supply since mid June.    It's been either genuine troughing... or sunny under ridging or weak onshore flow which has been the default.  

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tragic situation in the Snoqualmie Valley with the sun coming out now.  

True marine layer days have been in short supply since mid June.    It's been either genuine troughing... or sunny under ridging or weak onshore flow which has been the default.  

So what you're really saying is, if your steak isn't cooked to perfection, you go out and start kicking dogs? 

[AlTahoe]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think 1933 was the winter PDX didn't have a freeze. December 1933 was a total washout, but the rest of that winter wasn't super wet. 

1933-1934 was the worst ever in the Sierra until 2014-2015 blew it out of the water. 

[RentonHill]

@Phil please, my model, hes very sick

 

[Phishy Wx]

headed down to 48 tonight.  nice.  I wanted to turn off AC and open window but there's smoke in the air. oof

[Meatyorologist]

Don't really get huge, broad troughs like this in the middle of July.

Winter is coming.

[TacomaWx]

71/58 today. 

[Phishy Wx]

hmmm

 

[Tyler Mode]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

hmmm

 

These are so generic...turning wetter and cooler...um, ya it's fall.  Wet periods in the SE?  No way!

Drying out in the SW?  Like every autumn?

[Phishy Wx]

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

These are so generic...turning wetter and cooler...um, ya it's fall.  Wet periods in the SE?  No way!

Drying out in the SW?  Like every autumn?

well it is inaccuweather so