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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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70/54 here for Thursday.  That's a bona fide miracle by recent standards for early August.  Looks like an easy sub 50 low here for Friday.  That would be my first sub 50 low in the first week of August since 2008.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Night shift in Springfield currently at 58F and very pleasant. Beautiful starscape right now if y’all can get away from light pollution.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

70/54 here for Thursday.  That's a bona fide miracle by recent standards for early August.  Looks like an easy sub 50 low here for Friday.  That would be my first sub 50 low in the first week of August since 2008.

Not sure about the miracle part... at least in my area.  

North Bend had 5 days with highs in the 60s even in August 2015.   And that was a hot August.

In fact... there were days with highs in the 60s during the first half of August in every year except 2017.   

How about a high of 64 on 8-2-2018.  The high yesterday there was 70.

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, MV_snow said:

48 here. Jim called this being a cool morning for a while and was spot on.

45 this morning in North Bend.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Satellite shows the low clouds are pretty sparse this morning.   Should be basically sunny until maybe Wednesday morning.  

Overall this has been a very sunny summer in my area since about mid June... with just a handful of cloudy days.   It has felt more sunny than usual.   The only cloudy days have been during genuine troughing.   No real surprise marine layer days.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A pretty chilly 49F here, just 3F shy of the daily record. KSEA has only dropped to 55F, which is honestly *peak* KSEA, considering that they fell to 51F the other morning with more cloudcover and a slightly warmer airmass.

Totally agree that elevating a thermometer 100' off the ground on the highest point in the city surrounded by fields of concrete is the best representation of a city's weather (🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

A pretty chilly 49F here, just 3F shy of the daily record. KSEA has only dropped to 55F, which is honestly *peak* KSEA, considering that they fell to 51F the other morning with more cloudcover and a slightly warmer airmass.

Totally agree that elevating a thermometer 100' off the ground on the highest point in the city surrounded by fields of concrete is the best representation of a city's weather (🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭)

The elevation of SEA at 400+ feet naturally makes that area warmer during radiational cooling.  My area is almost always warmer than North Bend on clear nights too.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not sure if anyone mentioned it but KSEA's normals started dropping on August 4th. All downhill from here, in terms of average temperature.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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45 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

A pretty chilly 49F here, just 3F shy of the daily record. KSEA has only dropped to 55F, which is honestly *peak* KSEA, considering that they fell to 51F the other morning with more cloudcover and a slightly warmer airmass.

Totally agree that elevating a thermometer 100' off the ground on the highest point in the city surrounded by fields of concrete is the best representation of a city's weather (🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭🌭)

PDX only dropped to 59 too

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22 hours ago, Phil said:

Nah this is almost certainly a western US centric winter. All signs point that way (powerful modoki niña in conjunction with descending +QBO and inclining solar cycle *screams* -PNA).

Could be some -NAO thrown in the mix, but without a subtropical jet, snowfall will be difficult to come by here. Result is usually a miller-B storm track that puts us in the dryslot.

We’ll probably get our turn during the next El Niño.

I really hope that California at least sees avg precip this winter

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

970AEE51-A222-4D3B-82C6-5AA18699D016.jpeg

By the time 2011-40 averages come out, Seattle's average number of 90+ days will likely be close to double digits. Just getting to be the way it works now. 8-9 will start to feel like a totally average year there. Seattle's present summer climo is roughly what Portland's was from 1950-1980. And Portland's present summer climo is roughly what Roseburg's was from 1950-1980.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

By the time 2011-40 averages come out, Seattle's average number of 90+ days will likely be close to double digits. Just getting to be the way it works now. 8-9 will start to feel like a totally average year there. Seattle's present summer climo is roughly what Portland's was from 1950-1980. And Portland's present summer climo is roughly what Roseburg's was from 1950-1980.

Best Rodgers Tablet GIFs | Gfycat

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

By the time 2011-40 averages come out, Seattle's average number of 90+ days will likely be close to double digits. Just getting to be the way it works now. 8-9 will start to feel like a totally average year there. Seattle's present summer climo is roughly what Portland's was from 1950-1980. And Portland's present summer climo is roughly what Roseburg's was from 1950-1980.

Yeah we’ve had 7 +90s here right on the water. We will see if we get any more out of this next heatwave but after a week of 90s this one will be much more bearable. 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tim is gonna love this. #DeathRidgeDecember

 

November will be our time to shine this year! Also January. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

12z ICON shows two rounds of convection as the cutoff low drags ashore. One spotty outbreak on Tuesday morning and then a bigger regional event Tuesday overnight.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh84-132.gif

How long has it been since the last PDX-favored thunder event? coming up on 3 years in Seattle, but afaik it's been longer down there?

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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New pattern update from Brett Anderson through the end of August. I think we see more seasonal weather the 2nd half of August and he will end up being too warm for the PNW but we will see.

"The core of the heat is likely to be focused across the western two-thirds of North America over the next couple of weeks. There will likely be a decent cooldown with lower humidity across eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and the Northeast United States late next week till about Aug. 15, when it will start to warm up again, but not to the extent of what we will see farther west.

The southwest U.S. monsoon will likely continue to be active much of this month, which may, in turn, lead to below-normal rainfall across southwestern Canada."

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-weather-pattern-update/1227874

N.America-North-copy-4.webp.14ab8c64037022a33f0389b8c2a2acd1.webp

N.America-North-copy-5.webp.d992e64f86aacbe376b32779db4bf9f9.webp

N.America-North-copy-6.webp.ed5e02f1c4b2338e0db3d67160498e0a.webp

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

12z ICON shows two rounds of convection as the cutoff low drags ashore. One spotty outbreak on Tuesday morning and then a bigger regional event Tuesday overnight.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh84-132.gif

I only say this because that is the day I leave town, and I want to be here for it...

 

 

no-michael-scott.gif

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22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

November will be our time to shine this year! Also January. 

I am feeling the same thing... November could be pretty interesting this year.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

How long has it been since the last PDX-favored thunder event? coming up on 3 years in Seattle, but afaik it's been longer down there?

September 2020 maybe, the thunderstorms that cleared out the smoke. I don't remember these well, so I must've been asleep since it occurred during the night.
 

Sept2020Thunderstorms.gif

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34 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tim is gonna love this. #DeathRidgeDecember

 

Months of talk about a serious payback summer and something closer to 2015 than 1999 happens.  

Weeks of telling me that we will die of heat in MN and it was a gorgeous week... more cool than warm with only about 4 hours of humidity before the dewpoints plunged again.    

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36 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

I've been amusing myself with visions of what this forum might look like by Summer 2040.

TWL will run out of football jersey numbers as he commemorates 100º+ days in Eugene. Cascadia_Wx will bemoan the loss of the last native juniper-sage scrub habitat as date palms and cacti take over the Portland area. Jim will get unreasonably excited about the prospect of a chilly sub-60º low shown by the models. Everyone will be jealous of MossMan for reporting a string of highs only in the 80s. And Tim will still be complaining about the rain.

And we still won’t have had a white Christmas since 1990.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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