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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

HUGE OUTLIER

1CAD7994-C891-40D8-89CB-6E508BC3D5BB.jpeg

In what regard?

You are using the 06Z GEFS and I posted the 12Z GFS through just Saturday.     That 06Z graph actually shows the the 06Z GFS was an outlier bringing the ULL inland and now the 12Z run seems to have corrected that.    What happens after that is something entirely different.   The 12Z GFS is not out that far.   But overall there seems to be consensus that it will warm up again.  

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The GFS has clearly been trending warmer for next week over the last few runs going back a couple days.     The 12Z run is no exception.   

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In what regard?

You are using the 06Z GEFS and I posted the 12Z GFS through just Saturday.     That 06Z graph actually shows the the 06Z GFS was an outlier bringing the ULL inland and now the 12Z run seems to have corrected that.    What happens after that is something entirely different.   The 12Z GFS is not out that far.   But overall there seems to be consensus that it will warm up again.  

 

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15 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

HUGE OUTLIER

1CAD7994-C891-40D8-89CB-6E508BC3D5BB.jpeg

The mean still gets us to like +18F.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

 

LOL.   You always make me laugh with your witty responses.  😄

But what I said is accurate.   The 06Z was a outlier in terms of bringing the ULL inland over the weekend.   The 12Z run does not show that now.    And you weren't even comparing the right run.    

Regardless of my preferences... there is a pretty clear signal that next week is going to be warm again.  

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

It’s really nice out here at this moment. Get your sunshine now before it’s too late! 🔥

Lovely morning out here.    SEA was already up to 71 at 9 a.m.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

LOL.   You always make me laugh with your witty responses.  😄

But what I said is accurate.   The 06Z was a outlier in terms of bringing the ULL inland over the weekend.   The 12Z run does not show that now.    And you weren't even comparing the right run.    

Regardless of my preferences... there is a pretty clear signal that next week is going to be warm again.  

Ya I know I was just deflecting from me messing up the runs 

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12Z WRF shows the convection starting already on Tuesday morning.   Might be 2 days of thunderstorm chances with that ULL slowly moving north offshore.

 

olr.51.0000.gif

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z WRF shows the convection starting already on Tuesday morning.   Might be 2 days of thunderstorm chances with that ULL slowly moving north offshore.

 

olr.51.0000.gif

The 18z Euro also shows some pecip for Portland Tuesday morning. 

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

At least the 12z GFS is looking a lot different than the 06z in the long range so far.

Although I’m sure whichever run screws us the worst with heat and fires is inordinately more likely to verify.

Looking at the positive, I am pretty stoked that we’re coming up on mid august with no significant fires in WA/OR yet. Every day we tick off matters a lot now in terms of running out the clock. Atleast that’s what I tell myself

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Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Looking at the positive, I am pretty stoked that we’re coming up on mid august with no significant fires in WA/OR yet. Every day we tick off matters a lot now in terms of running out the clock. Atleast that’s what I tell myself

You’re right about that. Kind of feels like we’re primed for a lot of activity later in the month though. 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

The 18z Euro also shows some pecip for Portland Tuesday morning. 

Think you mean the 06Z run... here is the precip loop from that run (only goes out through 90 hours).

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-1659852000-1659862800-1660176000-10.gif

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Think you mean the 06Z run... here is the precip loop from that run (only goes out through 90 hours).

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-1659852000-1659862800-1660176000-10.gif

Oh I was only looking at the text output for the 06z run, which showed 0.1 inches of precip for Portland Tuesday morning, never mind then. Thanks for the precip loop.

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5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Already kind of missing TacomaWaWx

Cloud is taking a break as well.   A certain someone pushed him away with their actions the other day per a long and really nice PM he sent to me.   I hope they return very soon... they are definitely missed.   

Please downvote this post as usual.  👍

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z WRF shows the convection starting already on Tuesday morning.   Might be 2 days of thunderstorm chances with that ULL slowly moving north offshore.

 

olr.51.0000.gif

The 12z RDPS(RGEM) shows showers/t-storms moving up the Willamette Valley into Washington on Tuesday. Then more again on Wednesday. Going to be a fun couple of days following the radar.

qpf_acc.us_nw-2.thumb.png.b4df8b588d105e30c8a50ab460f8ddec.png

qpf_acc.us_nw-3.thumb.png.251bd0ae5b83c729b80638a7a501307f.png

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1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 12z RDPS(RGEM) shows showers/t-storms moving up the Willamette Valley into Washington on Tuesday. Then more again on Wednesday. Going to be a fun couple of days following the radar.

qpf_acc.us_nw-2.thumb.png.b4df8b588d105e30c8a50ab460f8ddec.png

qpf_acc.us_nw-3.thumb.png.251bd0ae5b83c729b80638a7a501307f.png

Yeah... Tuesday and Wednesday will be radar watching days.    I assume the SEA radar will be going down on Monday.  😀

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cloud is taking a break as well.   A certain someone pushed him away with his actions the other day per a long and really nice PM he sent to me.   I hope they return very soon... they are definitely missed.   Please downvote this post as usual.  👍

Been away for a few days.  What happened to tacomawawx.  He always seemed pretty chill. 

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Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Been away for a few days.  What happened to tacomawawx.  He always seemed pretty chill. 

We aren't supposed to talk about it... but Cloud and TacomaWaWx did nothing wrong.   They are just taking a break because of some other stuff that happened on here.  

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Tim and Andrew had a big blow up and it was bad enough that it pushed away a handful of members 

Yeah... definitely wasn't anything I did.    And they specifically told me so.  

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18 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 12z RDPS(RGEM) shows showers/t-storms moving up the Willamette Valley into Washington on Tuesday. Then more again on Wednesday. Going to be a fun couple of days following the radar.

qpf_acc.us_nw-2.thumb.png.b4df8b588d105e30c8a50ab460f8ddec.png

qpf_acc.us_nw-3.thumb.png.251bd0ae5b83c729b80638a7a501307f.png

Glad to see some precip showing up farther south as well

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Glad to see some precip showing up farther south as well

12Z WRF total precip map through Wednesday morning also favors western OR and the WA coast.

 

wa_pcp72.72.0000.gif

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Here is the 12Z ECMWF precip loop through Tuesday evening... sort of bypasses the Seattle area on this run.    Shows highs in the low to mid 80s in Seattle that day despite some mid-level clouds.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-1659873600-1660039200-1660100400-10.gif

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