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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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An unfortunate day for residents of Stampede Pass 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Models are looking kind of interesting for thunderstorm potential with the ULL.  It has trended a bit east again after going too far west to give the Puget Sound region much of anything.

1660132800-fvOTFnsIsgk.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Models are looking kind of interesting for thunderstorm potential with the ULL.  It has trended a bit east again after going too far west to give the Puget Sound region much of anything.

1660132800-fvOTFnsIsgk.png

Could be a doozy for the coast!

Though in my experience, coverage is usually larger than expected.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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94 in Klamath.

Burger #27 for them. Just an early guess but I think they won't top 40 this year. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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37 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

But... Cliff Mass says, and I quote: "the peak temperature, duration, and frequency of extreme heat events are not rapidly rising in the Northwest."

This will certainly tweak averages. If that sentence had said he doesn't believe it becomes a "new normal" I'd go along with that. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Could be a doozy for the coast!

Though in my experience, coverage is usually larger than expected.

The NAM 3km is now in range, and it showed some strong cells and PWAT values over 2" in some places which is great to see. All of the models agreeing on a general thunderstorm threat is also very good

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

100!! 

ECA2A4F8-DFD4-4471-BFFD-E47FB245E1CF.jpeg

Not much cooler on Lake Sammamish this afternoon... into the 90s.  Spectacular day on the water.   And we could watch the Blue Angels from Lake Washington without all the crowds.  

20220807_153816.jpg

20220807_154051.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 👌 "okay" emoji has been banned due to potential confusion or misuse. It's association with the white power movement is very real, and Andrew's gripe with that makes sense.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

This should be Portland's 9th 100 degree day in the past two years, which is more than most decades had before the 1970s!

And 11 in the last three years, which is the most Portland has ever seen in a 3 year stretch with the old record being 9. 100 degree days per decade at PDX:

40s: 12

50s: 2

60s: 7

70s: 15

80s: 15

90s: 12

00s: 15

10s: 11

20s: 11 so far

The number of 90 degree days has been trending up significantly but up until now the number of extreme 100+ days has been pretty constant for the last 50 years, though that may be changing.

  

53 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

But... Cliff Mass says, and I quote: "the peak temperature, duration, and frequency of extreme heat events are not rapidly rising in the Northwest."

I don't know what the guy's deal is but he's basically a straight up climate change denier at this point. Several years back I remember him making a blog post about how our fire seasons haven't been changing in length, and his "evidence" was to show March-April-May temperature and precip trends hadn't changed much over the last century. That was when I stopped reading his blog entirely.

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1 minute ago, James Jones said:

And 11 in the last three years, which is the most Portland has ever seen in a 3 year stretch with the old record being 9. 100 degree days per decade at PDX:

40s: 12

50s: 2

60s: 7

70s: 15

80s: 15

90s: 12

00s: 15

10s: 11

20s: 11 so far

The number of 90 degree days has been trending up significantly but up until now the number of extreme 100+ days has been pretty constant for the last 50 years, though that may be changing.

  

I don't know what the guy's deal is but he's basically a straight up climate change denier at this point. Several years back I remember him making a blog post about how our fire seasons haven't been changing in length, and his "evidence" was to show March-April-May temperature and precip trends hadn't changed much over the last century. That was when I stopped reading his blog entirely.

Oh I forgot to include 2020 in this decade's number, thanks for posting the stats by decade. In just three years we've seen as many or more 100 degree days as the entirety of the 2010s, 1950s and 1960s, which is crazy to think about. 

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While thunderstorms are neat and all I've kind of switched to not rooting for them by the time late July and August comes around. Most of the time they do not pack enough moisture this time of year and are highly likely to cause new fire starts. 

I'll never forget the Bridger Foothills fire in Bozeman in 2020 started from a lightning holdover that took nearly 10 days to finally flare up with the westerlies and those storms were wet!

day2otlk_fire.gif

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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25 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The 👌 "okay" emoji has been banned due to potential confusion or misuse. It's association with the white power movement is very real, and Andrew's gripe with that makes sense.

Thanks for removing it.   I had literally no idea.   Of course the best thing to do in that case is simply mention that it has a darker meaning so someone can fix it.  Rather than launching a 2-day brutal and ruthless personal attack with no basis in reality.   Of course that makes sense.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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32 minutes ago, James Jones said:

And 11 in the last three years, which is the most Portland has ever seen in a 3 year stretch with the old record being 9. 100 degree days per decade at PDX:

40s: 12

50s: 2

60s: 7

70s: 15

80s: 15

90s: 12

00s: 15

10s: 11

20s: 11 so far

The number of 90 degree days has been trending up significantly but up until now the number of extreme 100+ days has been pretty constant for the last 50 years, though that may be changing.

  

I don't know what the guy's deal is but he's basically a straight up climate change denier at this point. Several years back I remember him making a blog post about how our fire seasons haven't been changing in length, and his "evidence" was to show March-April-May temperature and precip trends hadn't changed much over the last century. That was when I stopped reading his blog entirely.

He’s basically Tim with a bigger microphone.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thanks for removing it.   I had literally no idea.   Of course the best thing to do in that case is simply mention that it has a darker meaning so someone can fix it.  Rather than launching a 2-day brutal and ruthless personal attack with no basis in reality.   Of course that makes sense.   

Seconded

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7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

He’s basically Tim with a bigger microphone.

This year has convinced me that the summer trend might be much more long term.   I was sure this would be a cool summer given the ENSO situation.    Threatening the 90-degree days record from 2015 at SEA is not what I expected.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This year has convinced me that the summer trend might be much more long term.   I was sure this would be a cool summer given the ENSO situation.    Threatening the 90-degree days record from 2015 at SEA is not what I expected.   

Better late than never!

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High of 90F at KSEA today. Barely clipped it during inter-hour obs.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Should be an identical day tomorrow for the Sound. Highs in the low 90s, lots of sun. Maybe some accas in the evening.

Should be noted too that the overnight lows haven't been torturous. Still pretty warm, but nothing like a week ago when it was struggling to drop below 70F. A somewhat cooler airmass with slightly worse dynamics.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Oops, meant to quote Eujunga’s last post here.

Very well said. I actually thought Cliff was a breath of fresh air at first when I thought “ok, this guy clearly believes in climate change, but he’s just pushing back against the most extreme doomers that say the world’s gonna end in 5 years.” I thought he was trying to take a nuanced approach. But clearly his analysis has gotten much worse in recent years. I think his constant battles against the extreme doomers has caused him to take the opposite extreme, lose belief that climate change is happening at all, and become willing to cherrypick stats to deny it.

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2 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Very well said. I actually thought Cliff was a breath of fresh air at first when I thought “ok, this guy clearly believes in climate change, but he’s just pushing back against the most extreme doomers that say the world’s gonna end in 5 years.” I thought he was trying to take a nuanced approach. But clearly his analysis has gotten much worse in recent years. I think his constant battles against the extreme doomers has caused him to take the opposite extreme, lose belief that climate change is happening at all, and become willing to cherrypick stats to deny it.

Both sides of political forces have decided to cherry pick, the metrics, so the real answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

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8 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Found this from Sept 2019, the funnel cloud that touched down just around 3 miles away from me:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsPEuz3JuU0\

Oh yeah, I remember that! It was a high humidity environment with weak rotation.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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