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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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31 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Should be an identical day tomorrow for the Sound. Highs in the low 90s, lots of sun. Maybe some accas in the evening.

Should be noted too that the overnight lows haven't been torturous. Still pretty warm, but nothing like a week ago when it was struggling to drop below 70F. A somewhat cooler airmass with slightly worse dynamics.

What is the 90 degree day count after tomorrow assuming it's a carbon copy of today?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Doiinko said:

And it was a very rare example of a tornado that was not in Clark County! Not sure why that area gets so many

It's got a lot of shear in the lee of the north Coast Range, it's a bit of a thermal pocket in a valley, and it gets lift being in the foothills of the Cascades.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's got a lot of shear in the lee of the north Coast Range, it's a bit of a thermal pocket in a valley, and it gets lift being in the foothills of the Cascades.

Oh okay, that makes sense, thanks for the explanation. Clark County always seems to get the interesting weather. I don't recall getting more snow then most of the area except maybe 2016/17 and Feb 2019 (Got lucky with ~3" on 2-25-19), though this area seems to probably have had a similar amount in December 2008 (22" to 24")

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2 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Hey all, I'm officially new to this forum but I've lurked around here every once in a few days since December 2021 to follow on the snow forecasts, and ever since I just generally lurked to follow the weather while learning things bit by bit. 

I withheld on making an account because I don't have anything to contribute, I believe, and I wasn't sure how a newbie or an outsider would be treated. I have a very vague sense on how to read GFS or ECMWF maps but have no idea how to use them to predict the near future. Decided to finally make an account and dip my feet in to try this forum out, hopefully I can ask questions and learn along the way.  

Was always heavily interested in weather, as a kid I would make weekly forecasts on a whiteboard and my parents were so sure I was going to be a meteorologist, haha. Weather became more of a hobby/interest growing up as I chose to study computer science at UW.

The pic's from December 25, 2017 when we had that white Christmas morning and I made that puny snowman. Named him Cholito. 😁 Here's to an eventful snowy winter! 🍻

IMG-1226.jpg

You picked a hell of a time to join. Glad you're here though!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Hey all, I'm officially new to this forum but I've lurked around here every once in a few days since December 2021 to follow on the snow forecasts, and ever since I just generally lurked to follow the weather while learning things bit by bit. 

I withheld on making an account because I don't have anything to contribute, I believe, and I wasn't sure how a newbie or an outsider would be treated. I have a very vague sense on how to read GFS or ECMWF maps but have no idea how to use them to predict the near future. Decided to finally make an account and dip my feet in to try this forum out, hopefully I can ask questions and learn along the way.  

Was always heavily interested in weather, as a kid I would make weekly forecasts on a whiteboard and my parents were so sure I was going to be a meteorologist, haha. Weather became more of a hobby/interest growing up as I chose to study computer science at UW.

The pic's from December 25, 2017 when we had that white Christmas morning and I made that puny snowman. Named him Cholito. 😁 Here's to an eventful snowy winter! 🍻

IMG-1226.jpg

 

Welcome aboard!

Always feel free to ask if you ever have any questions about anything. At its best this forum can be a great tool for folks sharing information and breaking model data down.

And with the thunderstorms this coming week we should have our first legitimately interesting weather to track in awhile coming up soon!

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26 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Oh okay, that makes sense, thanks for the explanation. Clark County always seems to get the interesting weather. I don't recall getting more snow then most of the area except maybe 2016/17 and Feb 2019 (Got lucky with ~3" on 2-25-19), though this area seems to probably have had a similar amount in December 2008 (22" to 24")

When there's strong enough offshore flow and downslope winds coming off the foothills, the south and southwest suburbs can definitely do better as our moisture will get devoured. 2/25/2019 was one such example. As was 12/14/2008. And 1/8/1993, 2/2/1989, 12/24/1983, and 12/5/1972 if you want to go back further with some more examples. The downslope in 2016-17 wasn't as bad but there was some definitely some drying component with the 12/14/16 and 1/10/17 storms near the foothills which made those snowier close to I-5.

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9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Welcome aboard!

Always feel free to ask if you ever have any questions about anything. At its best this forum can be a great tool for folks sharing information and breaking model data down.

And with the thunderstorms this coming week we should have our first legitimately interesting weather to track in awhile coming up soon!

Gonna be some good convective talk on this forum over the next few days. I'll make Husky learn something, whether they want to or not!

  • Like 4

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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I love heat lightening! 😍

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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23 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Yesterday or the day before, I saw a post that went like "we don't want people to leave or scare away new people from this forum", and I said to myself "eff it, I'll join". 😅 I took that as a cue to finally make an account. I'm pretty well aware of the in's and out's of the forum just from lurking for months. It sounds kind of stalker-ish lol, but I loved lurking on here cause of the great analysis on PNW weather, while also being a good replacement away from Cliff Mass' blog. Never thought I'd join but here I am! 😋

We have lurkers from this April at the latest who still continue to stay in the background. Apparently there are some that have lurked for years, not just since Dec 2021. Stalker-ish doesn't cut it.. ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

When there's strong enough offshore flow and downslope winds coming off the foothills, the south and southwest suburbs can definitely do better as our moisture will get devoured. 2/25/2019 was one such example. As was 12/14/2008. And 1/8/1993, 2/2/1989, 12/24/1983, and 12/5/1972 if you want to go back further with some more examples. The downslope in 2016-17 wasn't as bad but there was some definitely some drying component with the 12/14/16 and 1/10/17 storms near the foothills which made those snowier close to I-5.

Was 2/1995 one of those types? I thought that the highest totals were in the SW Metro area, but I'm not sure

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@snow_wizard The ECMWF showed 82 at SEA today... the GFS showed 90.    Actual high was 90.   

ECMWF was 8 degrees too cold.    Just blanket shaving 5 degrees off the GFS does not always work.   That only works on days with morning low clouds and afternoon sun.   The GFS is also often too cold on totally cloudy days.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00z GFS has a stronger, more enclosed low closer to the I5 corridor with better negative tilting. Also more diffluence over the area. Improvements for lightning all around.

  • Like 7

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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WILDFIRE UPDATE   (Zero Is Good Edition!)

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/7/22 

Washington - 0 (Third day of no new fires in Washington.  Three large fires in the state; Cow Canyon Fire, Vantage Highway Fire, and Williams Lake Fire. Total fires statewide has dropped from 12 to 11, the lowest level since I've been doing this for about two weeks.) Total: 12

Oregon - 0 (No new fires in OR today for the second straight day. There are three large fires in the state. Many fires have been put out in the past 24hrs. The total amount of fires has dropped from 35 to 32.) Total: 32

Idaho - 0 (No new fires in the state for the second straight day. Two major fires still exist, the Moose Fire and Woodtick Fire in remote locations within the Bitterroot Range. The total number of fires remains at 3. ) Total: 3

British Columbia - 7 (Seven new fires in the province. There are now eight large wildfires in BC. BC fire crews have struggled all summer to contain fires. The total amount of fires in the province increases from 56 to 61.) Total: 61

SMOKE UPDATE

Smoke is floating aloft over most of Oregon and eastern Washington.  It may drift into Western Washington with no air quality impacts.  Offshore air has taken the smoke from the east and moved it towards the west.  Despite this, Jackson County OR and Klamath County OR are no longer under poor air advisories. Dangerous air quality is currently over Cave Junction OR.  All the smoke aloft is purely from fires in California and British Columbia.  Washington and Oregon wildfires have produced no smoke beyond their localized areas.

As the offshore flow shifts to onshore on Tuesday, expect smoke to once again move eastward. 

260989744_ScreenShot2022-08-07at9_02_35PM.png

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58 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Hey all, I'm officially new to this forum...

 

Hey there!  Welcome to the community!  I'm "kinda new" myself and have found the people here to be very welcoming and helpful.  I don't know nearly as much as the great minds here, and they've all been helpful at explaining things for me and answering my questions!  So if you ever have questions or are unsure like I am all the time (lol) feel free to let it out!  Welcome to the community again and look forward to seeing you around! :)

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4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Was 2/1995 one of those types? I thought that the highest totals were in the SW Metro area, but I'm not sure

 Got about 6" with that where I was living in the Salmon Creek vicinity. It was definitely a bit snowier in downtown Portland but the offshore flow didn't screw things up too badly for anybody as it didn't quite reach mountain wave (downslope) gradient status with wind coming over the foothills. PDX and the areas most exposed to the gorge winds had a little trouble with measurements with so much blowing/drifting.

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1 hour ago, plainguy said:

A high of 96F today around 3PM. Currently 57F at 7:30.  Gotta love living near the beach. 2 miles SW of AST. 

I was at the Coast today in Seaside. It was in the low 80s and sunny there, then I headed south down 101 and the temps plummeted to 55 with dense fog up in the higher terrain, even had some drizzle. It cleared up again just past Barview.

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21 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z GFS has a stronger, more enclosed low closer to the I5 corridor with better negative tilting. Also more diffluence over the area. Improvements for lightning all around.

Most of our transient nocturnal t-storm events have been a result of negative tilting, unless otherwise associated with deep thermal troughing/monsoonal moisture.

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26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@snow_wizard The ECMWF showed 82 at SEA today... the GFS showed 90.    Actual high was 90.   

ECMWF was 8 degrees too cold.    Just blanket shaving 5 degrees off the GFS does not always work.   That only works on days with morning low clouds and afternoon sun.   The GFS is also often too cold on totally cloudy days.

@FroYoBro what exactly do you think you are accomplishing by down voting every post by TT? 

It kind of loses its meaning.

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11 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

@FroYoBro what exactly do you think you are accomplishing by down voting every post by TT? 

It kind of loses its meaning.

He is learning the way of Jesse, one downvote at a time

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Hey all, I'm officially new to this forum but I've lurked around here every once in a few days since December 2021 to follow on the snow forecasts, and ever since I just generally lurked to follow the weather while learning things bit by bit. 

I withheld on making an account because I don't have anything to contribute, I believe, and I wasn't sure how a newbie or an outsider would be treated. I have a very vague sense on how to read GFS or ECMWF maps but have no idea how to use them to predict the near future. Decided to finally make an account and dip my feet in to try this forum out, hopefully I can ask questions and learn along the way.  

Was always heavily interested in weather, as a kid I would make weekly forecasts on a whiteboard and my parents were so sure I was going to be a meteorologist, haha. Weather became more of a hobby/interest growing up as I chose to study computer science at UW.

The pic's from December 25, 2017 when we had that white Christmas morning and I made that puny snowman. Named him Cholito. 😁 Here's to an eventful snowy winter! 🍻

IMG-1226.jpg

Welcome! I'm also new to this forum, I only joined in May, but I've already learned a lot from everyone here and everyone has been very helpful with questions and their knowledge!

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47 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z GFS has a stronger, more enclosed low closer to the I5 corridor with better negative tilting. Also more diffluence over the area. Improvements for lightning all around.

The NAM is still going crazy with precipitable water in the air, does it have a tendency to overdo those values at times or is this just a very favorable setup for moisture? The 00z was showing PWAT values of 2.17" in some places in the Willamette Valley! 

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33 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 Got about 6" with that where I was living in the Salmon Creek vicinity. It was definitely a bit snowier in downtown Portland but the offshore flow didn't screw things up too badly for anybody as it didn't quite reach mountain wave (downslope) gradient status with wind coming over the foothills. PDX and the areas most exposed to the gorge winds had a little trouble with measurements with so much blowing/drifting.

Looks like that snowstorm took place in an otherwise warm winter! Thank you for the explanation! I really appreciate how in depth you go into these past events.

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33 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I was at the Coast today in Seaside. It was in the low 80s and sunny there, then I headed south down 101 and the temps plummeted to 55 with dense fog up in the higher terrain, even had some drizzle. It cleared up again just past Barview.

What is it about the central OR coast down to the northern CA coast that causes difficultly torching in the summer? Seems like even up through Ocean Shores, they have no problem getting hot with the right offshore setup, but it happens far less frequently in Newport or Eureka (at least that’s my perception).

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6 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

What is it about the central OR coast down to the northern CA coast that causes difficultly torching in the summer? Seems like even up through Ocean Shores, they have no problem getting hot with the right offshore setup, but it happens far less frequently in Newport or Eureka (at least that’s my perception).

Brookings is a notable exception down there.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

What is it about the central OR coast down to the northern CA coast that causes difficultly torching in the summer? Seems like even up through Ocean Shores, they have no problem getting hot with the right offshore setup, but it happens far less frequently in Newport or Eureka (at least that’s my perception).

Eureka is one of the foggiest places on Earth as you can see in my avatar. They have never reached 90 degrees ever.

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