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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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2 hours ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Hey all, I'm officially new to this forum but I've lurked around here every once in a few days since December 2021 to follow on the snow forecasts, and ever since I just generally lurked to follow the weather while learning things bit by bit. 

I withheld on making an account because I don't have anything to contribute, I believe, and I wasn't sure how a newbie or an outsider would be treated. I have a very vague sense on how to read GFS or ECMWF maps but have no idea how to use them to predict the near future. Decided to finally make an account and dip my feet in to try this forum out, hopefully I can ask questions and learn along the way.  

Was always heavily interested in weather, as a kid I would make weekly forecasts on a whiteboard and my parents were so sure I was going to be a meteorologist, haha. Weather became more of a hobby/interest growing up as I chose to study computer science at UW.

The pic's from December 25, 2017 when we had that white Christmas morning and I made that puny snowman. Named him Cholito. 😁 Here's to an eventful snowy winter! 🍻

IMG-1226.jpg

Hah! I did the same thing but in a slightly more primitive manner. I try to do it now but my wife shuts me down immediately.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Well I’ve given it some thought and Ive changed my mind and think I’ll stick around. Get a good feeling after the incident a few days ago that type of thing won’t be tolerated again so maybe it’ll be a good thing moving forward. 

That must have been ugly.  I missed most of it.  Maybe you can PM me with some details?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Not liking the looks of week two.  Apparently getting a decent (cool) August just isn't possible anymore...although I REALLY enjoyed last week.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, JBolin said:

There's no (e) in lightning.

 

Just a friendly PSA

I read something once where that is most common mis-spelling in the English language.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Well in other non politically related news (Off topic) my car decided to crap out as soon as I got into Anderson island tonight. Car isn’t broken down but I can’t go faster than 30 mph on flat roads while punching the gas and no more than like 10mph going uphill. Made it to my family’s property and I’m just gonna stay out here the next couple nights anyways…but not sure if she will make it all the way home or not 😂

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6 hours ago, Eujunga said:

But... Cliff Mass says, and I quote: "the peak temperature, duration, and frequency of extreme heat events are not rapidly rising in the Northwest."

How can he say that.  The normal August average for SEA has risen at least 3 degree over the past 40 years or so.  July isn't much better.  The interesting thing is once the 4CH disappears we go right back to weather like we've always had, with the exception of the extreme mystery known as January. 

One thing I will say is the warmth in summer temps was so sudden that it could snap back without warning at any time.  Who knows.  Until then you almost have to go warm for July and August in your summer forecast until further notice.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I read something once where that is most common mis-spelling in the English language.

More common than people mis-writing 'there' 'their' or 'they're'?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Well in other non politically related news (Off topic) my car decided to crap out as soon as I got into Anderson island tonight. Car isn’t broken down but I can’t go faster than 30 mph on flat roads while punching the gas and no more than like 10mph going uphill. Made it to my family’s property and I’m just gonna stay out here the next couple nights anyways…but not sure if she will make it all the way home or not 😂

What kind?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Beautiful 79/52 day today. Currently 63F which is significantly warmer than it's been recently at this time. Might not drop a ton overnight.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Gotcha. If it was a little newer I’d say it might have just thrown a code. 

Right now I’m thinking I’m just gonna get rid of the car. Have had the codes read by my grandpa a couple times and nothing came up. I’m just gonna try to get it home tomorrow night hopefully without a tow and just sell it as is. Probably won’t get much out of it but not worth the money to fix it in my opinion. 

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How legit is this thunderstorm chance for this week? I'm excited.

Being from the Philippines, thunderstorms are one hell of a beast in Manila and it's probably how I initially got into weather. I was in 6th grade when I visited back home (around 2009?) and there was a freak thunderstorm that spawned waterspouts/tornadoes on the bay. The rain and wind was crazy, rattling the windows at the high-rise hotel we stayed at. 

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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8 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

How legit is this thunderstorm chance for this week? I'm excited.

Being from the Philippines, thunderstorms are one hell of a beast in Manila and it's probably how I initially got into weather. I was in 6th grade when I visited back home (around 2009?) and there was a freak thunderstorm that spawned waterspouts/tornadoes on the bay. The rain and wind was crazy, rattling the windows at the high-rise hotel we stayed at. 

Prett legit shot.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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53 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Beautiful 79/52 day today. Currently 63F which is significantly warmer than it's been recently at this time. Might not drop a ton overnight.

89/53 here.  Much cooler nights than the last run of hot weather.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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ECMWF has upped the ante for thunder in the Puget Sound region.

1660154400-bjpXMIpjFJQ.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

How can he say that.  The normal August average for SEA has risen at least 3 degree over the past 40 years or so.  July isn't much better.  The interesting thing is once the 4CH disappears we go right back to weather like we've always had, with the exception of the extreme mystery known as January. 

One thing I will say is the warmth in summer temps was so sudden that it could snap back without warning at any time.  Who knows.  Until then you almost have to go warm for July and August in your summer forecast until further notice.

This part isn’t true. Summer has definitely seen the most warming but there has been appreciable warming across all seasons, and a drop off in top tier cold airmasses which dovetails nicely with the meteoric rise in top tier warm airmasses 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Quit it.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Interesting to note that the 00Z ECMWF did not show any marine layer days in sight for the next 10 days.    It showed marine layer clouds along the coast on several days but never really getting inland too far.

The lack of marine layer clouds out here in my area this summer has been quite noticeable and sort of unusual.   As I mentioned earlier, there have been a few cloudy days since the middle of June but always the direct result of a genuine trough overhead.  What has been missing is the usual morning low clouds when there is not a storm moving through.  This is in sharp contrast to a summer like 2010 when marine layer clouds were the default unless we were under a big ridge.

I also remember mid-June through mid-July in 2020 when marine layer clouds would last most of the day every day.   There was only 1-2 sunny days in that entire period in the EPSL despite relatively high heights for much of the time.

Not sure how to explain it... but this summer reminds more of 2015 and 2018 when marine layer days were very rare.    It has been a very sunny summer overall since about June 20th.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Dp reached 85°F this AM here in coastal GA. 😂 Felt almost otherworldly.@Chewbacca Defense can probably attest to what I’m talking about. Like there’s more water than oxygen in the air.

All I can say is thank GOD there’s a stiff sea breeze most days. This place is so beautiful and magnetizing but d**n it’s tough on the body.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dp reached 85°F this AM here in coastal GA. 😂 Felt almost otherworldly.@Chewbacca Defense can probably attest to what I’m talking about. Like there’s more water than oxygen in the air.

All I can say is thank GOD there’s a stiff sea breeze most days. This place is so beautiful and magnetizing but d**n it’s tough on the body.

Watch out for any lawyers on the beach with sharp knives looking for you

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5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Watch out for any lawyers on the beach with sharp knives looking for you

:lol: What did I miss? 

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40 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dp reached 85°F this AM here in coastal GA. 😂 Felt almost otherworldly.@Chewbacca Defense can probably attest to what I’m talking about. Like there’s more water than oxygen in the air.

All I can say is thank GOD there’s a stiff sea breeze most days. This place is so beautiful and magnetizing but d**n it’s tough on the body.

Except low tide....from what I remember the wind almost always died at low tide, and it became intolerable.  I never understood why it worked out that way.

But yeah...the humidity is next level down there....🤢

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