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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

89/53 here.  Much cooler nights than the last run of hot weather.

Up here it's been about the same. Last night ending up dropping to 56F which was similar to most of the nights during the previous heat spell.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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12 hours ago, MV_snow said:

What is it about the central OR coast down to the northern CA coast that causes difficultly torching in the summer? Seems like even up through Ocean Shores, they have no problem getting hot with the right offshore setup, but it happens far less frequently in Newport or Eureka (at least that’s my perception).

From Central OR down they are protected most of the time from the dry downsloping winds coming off the mountains. Its hard for those downsloping winds to reach those areas with the geography and just no gaps for the warm/hot air to funnel through. They have more marine influence and lots of fog as Mr. Marine Layer mentioned. But there are exceptions as Tim said with the Brookings effect.

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17 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

But then there's always the Farmer's Almanac prediction 😀

https://www.travelawaits.com/2790145/farmers-almanac-winter-forecast-2022/

A brisk winter for PNW!

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that it's gonna snow at some point in the Pacific Northwest region between November 2022 and March 2023.  Hell, I'll really stick my neck out and say it is going to snow more than once *somewhere* in the Pacific Northwest during that time period.

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Another view of the loop... looks like a Hood Canal special.   I assume that is due to upslope the flow coming in from the SE around the low. offshore.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_6hr_inch-1659960000-1660100400-1660244400-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that it's gonna snow at some point in the Pacific Northwest region between November 2022 and March 2023.  Hell, I'll really stick my neck out and say it is going to snow more than once *somewhere* in the Pacific Northwest during that time period.

Timberline Lodge

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Not much going on here. Currently 71F with mostly cloudy skies. Looks like there might be some action to our north eventually but down here it's pretty benign as usual.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another view of the loop... looks like a Hood Canal special.   I assume that is due to upslope the flow coming in from the SE around the low. offshore.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_6hr_inch-1659960000-1660100400-1660244400-10.gif

Looks like we’re on the western edge of it…could be a good light show even from a distance. Though I think we will probably get atleast one direct hit. 

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14 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Euro also shows some light shower activity early next week too. Not a cool pattern but could be a pretty decent stretch of weather coming up after today. 

Looks pretty nice the rest of this week... some convection then lots of sun and pleasant temps with highs around 80.    

Then it appears that we might heat up again.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks pretty nice the rest of this week... some convection then lots of sun and pleasant temps with highs around 80.    

Then it appears that we might heat up again.  

Yeah that’s 7+ days out though. Looks pretty comfortable and even interesting at times the next week. 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah that’s 7+ days out though. Looks pretty comfortable and even interesting at times the next week. 

Really quiet after Wednesday... ECMWF shows basically full sunshine except for some marine layer clouds on Sunday morning.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really quiet after Wednesday... ECMWF shows basically full sunshine except for some marine layer clouds on Sunday morning.

Sounds perfect to me! 
Already 90 here in Orondo at noon! 

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Definitely think there’s a legit shot we break the +90 record this year. SEA might get there again today. 

Going to be a close call today... right on pace with yesterday now but with a west wind rather than a north wind like yesterday.    A little tougher to get there with a west wind.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Definitely think there’s a legit shot we break the +90 record this year. SEA might get there again today. 

Portland could tie the +100 record if we get another one with one more heatwave which is five set in 2021, 1977, 1941. 

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The ECMWF is hideous at the end.  At least we are getting into much longer nights and lower sun angles after mid month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is hideous at the end.  At least we are getting into much longer nights and lower sun angles after mid month.

We might just break the 2015 record for 90-degree days.     Hard to imagine that happening given that we have a rapidly strengthening Nina right now... and this is a rare 3rd year Nina.     Pretty crazy.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The really weird thing is the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific has been textbook La Nina this summer.  Not sure what is causing the abnormal abundance of heat in a multi year Nina summer.  The MJO has almost totally avoided touching any regions hostile to La Nina for weeks now.

Could be a fun crash this fall after we finally slog our way through all of the heat.  The summer to autumn transition has actually become rather profound here in recent years.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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