August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[snow_wizard]

The weeklies show the pattern becoming more favorable in September with PNA going minus again.  Until then...more heat unless something changes.  Certainly a bit of a break in the near term with the ULL however.

[Omegaraptor]

12 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Ugh. The models seem totally locked in on this one 10 days out. 

 

12z EPS has Portland’s 850 mean at 22°C and both the operational and control getting to high 20s at 10-11 days out. Pretty hard to get a stronger heat signal at that range.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's actually an extreme -PDO though.

Working wonders this year... another frigid summer!     Maybe we need a +PDO with a strengthening Nino?

[TacomaWx]

High clouds on the approach. It’s definitely taken the edge off the heat here. Skies also look convective over the cascades. 

[TT-SEA]

To follow up on Tonga... based on this it seems like the effect would be pretty minor overall.

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/tonga-volcano-spews-enough-water-to-fill-58-000-pools-into-stratosphere-likely-to-add-to-global-warming-84150

Volcanic eruption in Tonga recorded January 15, 2022 is likely to add to global warming and the depletion of Earth’s ozone layer, according to a new study.

The violent underwater eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai injected 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapour into the stratosphere. The stratosphere is the layer of atmosphere between 10-50 kilometres above the surface of the Earth.

The water vapour, a greenhouse gas, released by the volcano, is roughly 10 per cent of the water already present in the stratosphere, noted the study published in Geophysical Letters July 1, 2022.

“Tonga eruption may be the first volcanic eruption observed to impact climate not through surface cooling caused by volcanic sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming caused by excess water vapour,” the study noted.

[T-Town]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Still 88 at SEA on the 4 p.m. observation... no change from last hour.   

And 90 degrees is still not official.    Now we wait until the next update at 4:53 p.m.  

Hmmm. Confusing. The 4:53 update typically includes min/max temps for the previous six hours. Are those min/max temps official?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Hmmm. Confusing. The 4:53 update typically includes min/max temps for the previous six hours. Are those min/max temps official?

As far as I know... those are official.

[Phishy Wx]

Feels like the worst of summer may still be ahead of us, even after the last heat wave of 5 days above 100 here.  oof

[TT-SEA]

93 in North Bend.    

The 13th day at 90+ out here.

[Phishy Wx]

currently 96

[MossMan]

Feels amazing! Slept in and was lazy this morning so I didn’t hit the river today. Might go out this evening. Headed home tomorrow morning to beat the booms that one of my dogs is so sensitive to she will actually harm herself trying to hide so I want to be there to make sure she as comfortable as possible. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

35 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Feels like the worst of summer may still be ahead of us, even after the last heat wave of 5 days above 100 here.  oof

Wait until the smoke season kicks in. That is always the worst of summer in my book.

Currently 82˚F after a high of 85.

[Seattle]

90 burger at KSEA! Not only that but actually hit 91. Day 10, which will surely grow based on how the extended is looking...

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Seattle said:

90 burger at KSEA! Day 10, which will surely grow based on how the extended is looking...

Actually managed 91 there!  

[Anti Marine Layer]

Nice afternoon.

[TacomaWx]

87/57 today in Tacoma down to 85. Heatwave wasn’t too bad here atleast. 85/57 yesterday 

[Meatyorologist]

54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

To follow up on Tonga... based on this it seems like the effect would be pretty minor overall.

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/tonga-volcano-spews-enough-water-to-fill-58-000-pools-into-stratosphere-likely-to-add-to-global-warming-84150

Volcanic eruption in Tonga recorded January 15, 2022 is likely to add to global warming and the depletion of Earth’s ozone layer, according to a new study.

The violent underwater eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai injected 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapour into the stratosphere. The stratosphere is the layer of atmosphere between 10-50 kilometres above the surface of the Earth.

The water vapour, a greenhouse gas, released by the volcano, is roughly 10 per cent of the water already present in the stratosphere, noted the study published in Geophysical Letters July 1, 2022.

“Tonga eruption may be the first volcanic eruption observed to impact climate not through surface cooling caused by volcanic sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming caused by excess water vapour,” the study noted.

Would probably be a delayed warming effect, similar to how volcanic cooling is delayed by 6-24 months too.

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

87/57 today in Tacoma down to 85. Heatwave wasn’t too bad here atleast. 85/57 yesterday 

Touched 90 here before the high clouds moved in. 87 now. Doesn’t feel bad out given I’m lounging on the patio with a beer. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Would probably be a delayed warming effect, similar to how volcanic cooling is delayed by 6-24 months too.

Probably true... although it's been 8 months now.  

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

That’s a devil sign. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Astoria dropped from 81 to 63 in 30 minutes yesterday. 

[RentonHill]

Also hit 90 here

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

[T-Town]

27 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

That’s a devil sign. 

Let’s go to Ronnie James Dio for a ruling. 

[MossMan]

It’s coming. 
Still 104. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming. 
Still 104. 

Stick a fork in it.   Summer is over.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming. 
Still 104. 

About 40 degrees colder at the coast. 

[TacomaWx]

Marine push is coming. Shelton down to 79. Will probably feel it here on the island soon. 

[Blizzard777]

23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming. 
Still 104. 

104* Lake Havasu as well!  Water temp 87* , felt like a bathtub!!!

Decided to drop down a bit out of the monsoonal flow to see what this party lake was all about.  Pretty sure this is not my thing but looking forward to the sunset walk around the London Bridge 

[Perturbance]

Only 79° for a high today IMBY. Had high cloud cover all morning, with some virga, before clearing this afternoon. Down to 69° now with onshore winds.

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

104* Lake Havasu as well!  Water temp 87* , felt like a bathtub!!!

Decided to drop down a bit out of the monsoonal flow to see what this party lake was all about.  Pretty sure this is not my thing but looking forward to the sunset walk around the London Bridge 

Toasty water! 62 degree water temp on the Columbia! 

[NWbyNW]

WILDFIRE UPDATE   (It had to end sometime...Edition!)

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/8/22 

Washington - 12 (After three days of no new fires, fires have sparked up all across the state today making a total of 12.  The new Whitcomb Fire west of Paterson is fast expanding. There are now four large fires in the state; Cow Canyon Fire, Vantage Highway Fire, Williams Lake Fire, and the Riparia Fire. The Riparia Fire has been burning for several days, but winds have expanded it, turning it into a large fire at over 5,600 acres burned. The fire is located along WA-127 new the Central Ferry State Park.  Likely human caused. Total fires statewide increased from 11 to 23.  That accelerated quickly...) Total: 23

Oregon - 6 (Six new fires in OR today. There are three large fires in the state; the Miller Road Fire, Cedar Creek Fire, and Windigo Fire. Roughly 6-10 fires have been put out in the past 24hrs. The total amount of fires has dropped from 32 to 31.) Total: 31

Idaho - 0 (No new fires in the state for the third straight day. Two major fires still exist, the Moose Fire and Woodtick Fire in remote locations within the Bitterroot Range. The total number of fires remains at 3. ) Total: 3

British Columbia - 12 (Twelve new fires in the province. There are now eight large wildfires in BC. Some good progress in putting out fires in the past 24hrs. The total amount of fires in the province increases from 61 to 55.) Total: 55

SMOKE UPDATE

Smoke is floating aloft over most of Oregon and eastern Washington.  It may drift into Western Washington with no air quality impacts.  Offshore air has taken the smoke from the east and moved it towards the west.  Jackson County OR and Klamath County OR are back under poor air advisories. Moderate to unhealthy air quality is currently over Cave Junction, Medford, Ashland, and Grants Pass.  

Seattle metro, Portland metro, and Spokane metro currently have clean air.  Vancouver metro is clean with some moderate stations to the east by Chilliwack and north in North Vancouver.

As the offshore flow shifts to onshore on Tuesday, expect smoke to once again move eastward. 

[TT-SEA]

32 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

104* Lake Havasu as well!  Water temp 87* , felt like a bathtub!!!

Decided to drop down a bit out of the monsoonal flow to see what this party lake was all about.  Pretty sure this is not my thing but looking forward to the sunset walk around the London Bridge 

Is there any water left in that lake?  

Lake Sammamish is around 78-80 now... 87 seems a bit too warm!     Pretty crazy that a lake in western WA is only about 7 degrees cooler than a lake in the middle of the desert.  

[NWbyNW]

Uh oh... it happened.  A podium position for Sea-Tac.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Uh oh... it happened.  A podium position for Sea-Tac.

10 is wimpy... North Bend is at 13 now out here in the middle of the forested foothills.    No runways to be found! 

[TacomaWx]

Shelton went from 91 at 4pm to 70 at 7pm. Not too shabby. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Shelton went from 91 at 4pm to 70 at 7pm. Not too shabby. 

Wow... did not realize it was coming in the fast.   I see the low clouds advancing inland now as well.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Shelton went from 91 at 4pm to 70 at 7pm. Not too shabby. 

Nice!

[T-Town]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Shelton went from 91 at 4pm to 70 at 7pm. Not too shabby. 

Nice. Not feeling it here yet but sounds imminent. 

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Nice. Not feeling it here yet but sounds imminent. 

It’s here on Anderson. Winds are SW now. 68 in Shelton too.